Christie’s Auction Prediction: Alberto Giacometti
On May 11 the Spring auction season will burst into life when Christie’s “Looking Forward to the Past” opens in New York.
Unsurprisingly, there are many prestigious pieces of artwork going under the hammer. What is perhaps surprising is the fact that wonderful pieces by Warhol, Monet and Picasso are not the pieces vying for center stage this week.
Instead, that honor goes to a different Picasso and a Giacometti. With Picasso’s painting, “The Woman of Algiers” being valued at $140 million and Giacometti’s sculpture, “Man Pointing” set to fetch $130 million, both pieces are tipped to break auction records.
On a day that could generate sales of half a billion dollars, in the context of a week of auctions that could generate 1 billion, there are a number of questions that come up in relation to these pieces and the wider art market.
1) Will the pieces reach their high estimates?
It is, of course, impossible to predict with 100% accuracy what will happen, but I can make good assessment based on my knowledge of the art market.
First of all, Christie’s is on an undeniably lucrative hot streak when it comes to their Contemporary and Post-War art sales. Their last 4 Contemporary and Post-War actions weeks have been higher than the last, outdoing the last by a substantial margin. Just 6 months ago, their sales reached $852.9 million, over $250 million more than the estimates would have suggested. Since then, the market has showed no signs whatsoever of slowing down, which leads me to believe this week will once again be record breaking.
Secondly, with two rare and historically important pieces such as these coming to auction, both created by artists who were at their peak, I can guarantee that there will be a string of wealthy investors focused on each piece, intent on securing it for themselves.
It’s situations such as this that lead to auction records being broken. The chance to acquire these pieces may be a once in a generation opportunity and with determined and wealthy individuals sparring for the ultimate prize, I believe these pieces will reach their high estimates.
Furthermore, I believe these pieces will surpass their estimates and make art history once again.
2) Why are these pieces being valued so highly?
To even attempt to answer this question properly, we first have to look at the wider art market in general. In short, the worldwide art market is soaring right now, with more and more UHNWIs investing their wealth in fine art, both for pleasure and as a financial asset, the demand is higher than ever.
Next, we must look at the importance of these pieces in the context of art history. Loic Gouzer, Senior Vice President of Christie’s, describes Giacometti’s sculpture, of which only 6 casts were made, as “The Holy Grail of sculpture.” Speaking of Picasso’s painting, Gouzer is no less profuse in his adoration, labelling it, “a masterpiece at the level of ‘Guernica’ and ‘Les Demoiselles d’Avignon.’
Taking these things into consideration, that the art market is ripe for astronomical auction prices and that these works are not only excellent, but seminal in terms of art history, it seems only fitting that these pieces are being valued so highly.
3) What effect will this have on art prices in general?
The appearance of the potentially record breaking, “The Woman of Algiers,” is interestingly timed because the art market is currently experiencing a flood of Picasso paintings. Yes, this piece is rightly expected to sell for a very high price, but what does this mean for other individuals, dealers and collectors who possess Picassos? Will their pieces be driven down as supply potentially outweighs demand?
I tend to agree with Mukti Khair’s assessment of the flood of Picassos as referenced on May 1st by Harvard Business School; the more famous pieces will be insulated against large price fluctuations, whereas lesser known and lower quality works may be adversely affected in terms of price.
In relation to Giacometti, I think the same can mostly be said. What’s particularly noteworthy about Giacometti’s, “Man Pointing” is that if it does sell for a record price, the record it will be breaking is one that was set by another sculpture by Giacometti, “L’Homme qui marche I”.
It’s not entirely outside the realms of possibility that Giacometti’s works may see a price increase as a result of the auction, given that he was neither as prolific as Picasso and that, by his auction record, he is undeniably the most preeminent Contemporary and Post-War sculptor.
Written By: Rayah Levy, Art Market Expert
LinkedIn, May 11, 2015:
https://lnkd.in/b-d6SF3
