Predictions for upcoming GOP primaries

Two more primaries to go in February. Donald Trump is still poised to be the front runner this time. There is space for Rubio and Cruz to do well in this state, capturing #2 and #3 spots respectively. If Jeb Bush, Kaich and Carson continue to lose in the next 2 primaries, we will likely see 2–3 of them drop out by the end of February, and latest after March 1 Super Tuesday Primaries.

But the earlier these 3 candidates drop out, the better it would be for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio to consolidate support from the candidates dropping out. It is particularly beneficial to Rubio, as Kasich and Bush are establishment candidates, their supporters might eventually go on to back the more establishment-friendly Rubio rather than the far-right Cruz.

As the GOP field gets narrower, it is possible Trump might not always be the front runner anymore, during and after March 1, as votes will be divided between Trump, Cruz and Rubio. It will be interesting to watch after that.

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