Augur v2 & Eccentric Betting Odds for Hillary Clinton

Augur
Augur
Oct 11 · 5 min read

Wacky Odds for Hillary Clinton

Interest in betting on Hillary to win the Democratic nomination has recently been piqued, having spiked to as high as .10/share in early October, before quickly falling back to .05/share.

Remember, folks, Hillary Clinton is not currently in the running for the nomination.

Some have posited that the bet size limitations which platforms such as PredictIt impose, coupled with exorbitant fees, have distorted the odds.

Curiously enough, several days later, Hillary’s odds spiked again, this time to as high as .11/share. This would place her in the top three or four hopefuls for the nomination; again, without an official announcement or indication she would be running.

What’s causing this phenomenon? is HRC preparing another run?

Probably not. The initial spike seemed to correlate with an October 1st appearance on The View, where speculators may have been trying to front-run an announcement. The second spike seemed to correlate with an October 8th response to a DJT tweet which goaded here to run again:

2020 Election Betting Roundup

Following last week’s runup in the Donald Trump first-term impeachment market, odds have plateaued in the low .70s range. This has held despite presidential-hopeful Joe Biden now joining in on the impeachment chorus, as well as a second intelligence official whistleblower coming forward in the alleged pressuring of Ukrainian President Zelensky by Trump into investigating Joe’s son, Hunter’s Ukrainian energy dealings.

Source: Bianco Research

Biden, in other news, has maintained a sizeable deficit, currently .27/share, to leader Elizabeth Warren in the 2020 Democratic nomination markets. In the same market, Bernie Sanders’ odds have tanked in the wake of his heart attack/hospitalization (get well Bern!).

On the 2020 Presidential election market front, DJT’s lead over Warren has recently ebbed and flowed, currently sitting at a .06 spread of .40/share vs .34/share.

As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the no-brainer platform for political betting with unbeatable odds, the lowest fees, and the tightest spreads. Get started betting!


Lots of News from Devcon!

This week at Devcon in Osaka, Japan, the team announced the planned rollout of Augur v2, and are one step closer to providing universal access to tools that increase and protect wealth through finance and betting.

read below about the past, present, and future of Augur’s mission of creating the world’s most accessible, no-limit betting platform is coming to fruition:


Augur v2 Devcon Presentation

Below you can watch a short presentation outlining the Q1 2020 release of Augur v1.5 w/ 0x Trading, Augur v2.0 w/ MakerDAO’s Dai, and the forthcoming scaling solution for high throughput and low latency:

Here is the full deck from the presentation:


Augur Metrics

Pre-Finalization Markets: 282

All-Time Finalized Markets: 2,438

Pre-Finalization Open Interest: $182,194.74 (950 ETH)

CASH Contract: $550,149.22 USD (2,956 ETH)

ETH Price: $186.07




The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.

Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community that are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes and etc with the larger community via Twitter, Discord, Reddit, Github, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.


Cheers,

The Forecast Foundation OU

Augur

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