Wait we’re all bullish right?

Am starting to believe that this is the most bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto world we’ve seen in quite a long time. We finally have strong tailwinds of a narrative, something Bitcoin / the crypto market has lacked for over 12 months now. Bitcoin being used to fund Ukraine and Ethereum pushing forward on actually completing the merge…

We are witnessing the break of the current financial system and the movement towards something new and amazing — hold on, because we’re going for a ride. The seizure of Russian assets has to have individuals and countries across the globe scrambling to protect themselves if they ever find themselves an enemy of America. I do believe Zoltan is correct, Bretton Woods III is underway.

The broader tech and risk market sell-off looks primed to be over. Kolanovic made a good point that geopolitical risk is abating, and we’ve seen nasty drawdowns across the board already. Bitcoin is already showing some idiosyncratic strength and the BTC/NDX chart proves that there is an underlying bid…

  • Funding = Persistently negative
  • Futures = Backwardation when accounting for inflation
  • Moving Averages = coming lower and BTC is peaking above the 180 EHMA
  • On-chain = Accumulation continuing to occur

Sentiment = diverging from price — BTC at 40k yet people are still talking about “Goblintown

Combine the narrative for Bitcoin with the Ethereum merge and suddenly we have an extremely potent one-two punch for the crypto market to explode higher. The main risk here is a flush out of the global financial system due to escalation in Russia or breakage someone in the plumbing that people don’t expect. It’s possible that the transition will be scary and fierce — so assembling a portfolio that doesn’t blow you up to the downside is important. Long dated calls for both Ethereum and Bitcoin make sense.

This has the potential to be very similar to a March 2020 scenario, where you look back in time and think to yourself, “well of course it was the right move to be giga long”



Crypto @ GoldenTree. WashU ’17.

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