Creating an Automatic CR Mechanism That Appropriates at Merely the Previous Year’s Levels Would Destroy Critical Programs
Having just emerged from the most disastrous government shutdown in history, Democrats are understandably eager to find creative ways of preventing Republicans from forcing any more government shutdowns. However, an automatic continuing resolution — or CR — that funded programs at merely the previous year’s levels would lead to the permanent devastation of vital programs such as Head Start, Section 8, WIC, LIHEAP, the CDC, NIH, NOAA, Pell Grants, and many others.
Simply put, Republicans long to cut the government. Every single budget they propose calls for massive cuts, and every single spending bill they reconcile through a budget resolution either succeeds or gets dangerously close to succeeding in cutting the size of the government. In 2011, the Republican Party extorted President Obama and Congressional Democrats into passing a bill that cut government spending by trillions of dollars (the vast majority of which came from the programs that would be devastated by an automatic CR at the previous year’s levels), lest they force the United States to default on its debt. So, if Republicans are given an easy way to cut those programs, they’ll love it. And if that mechanism allows Republicans to cut those programs while pretending their finger prints aren’t all over the cuts, they’ll really love it. An automatic CR at the previous year’s levels is precisely that gift.
Three times a year, CBO produces a 10-year baseline, relative to which the impact of legislation is estimated. It’s confusing and has a lot of particular rules, but despite being called the “current law baseline,” it’s more or less an estimate of the continuation of current policy. Most programs that are set to expire are assumed to be reauthorized under the exact same policy specifics they’re currently operating. Entitlements are assumed to have enough funding to fully pay all beneficiaries. And programs that Congress needs to fund annually (a “shutdown” occurs when Congress doesn’t fund some or all of them) are assumed to grow with inflation (the growth mechanism is a little complicated, but “inflation/cost growth” is the best way to think about it).
If lack of Congressional action meant those programs would be funded only at the previous year’s levels, it means they wouldn’t keep up with inflation, and they certainly wouldn’t keep up with population growth. Over time, a permanent freeze would effectively reduce those programs to inefficacy, destroying programs that keep people out of poverty (WIC, LIHEAP, Section 8, etc.), that fund research (NIH, NSF, etc.), and that keep the country safe (CDC, NOAA, etc.). Republicans want to cut these programs anyway, and this would give them the ability to cut them without even looking as though they forced a cut. Republicans could, and would, simply filibuster all non-defense appropriations bills for the rest of time. Unless Democrats had 60 Senators and the House of Representatives, no appropriations bill would get passed, and those programs would continue at the previous year’s level. And if they did manage to pass a bill, a Republican president could simply veto it. Simply put, this would lead to a near-permanent freeze of vital programs. And those cuts come quickly.
By just the second year, each program would be cut 5.7 percent below baseline (think of the baseline as just keeping up with inflation, and thus of this as a real cut in services), or 7.3 percent if you also count population growth. By the fifth year, each program would be cut 12.7 percent, or 16.2 percent if you also count population growth. By the end of 10 years, each program would be cut 22.7 percent, or 28.6 percent if you also count population growth.
Democrats must not pass a bill that automatically appropriates at the previous year’s levels. To do so would be to permanently destroy the very programs we were trying to save.
