It is just a few days after 2014 ended, where we experienced a major impact of strange football switch that happened the year before. All happened on a local axis close to Mersey river: Wigan-> Everton -> Manchester United, arguably having been triggered by famous Sir Alex Ferguson retiring from football management.
Switch in nutshell
Wigan let Roberto Martinez go, so the Premier League Manager of Month (april 2012) has joined Liverpool’s minor side Everton. Everton released David Moyes to go try his dream job at Manchester United. On April 22ndDavid was sacked and only in November he found his new managerial role in the north of Spain, in Basque club San Sebastian.
But what was strange in this shifting? Well, all 3 clubs and all 3 managers (including Alex Ferguson that endorsed Moyes), suffered. How was a professional bettor able to make profit from this situation?
Downfall of Manchester United was expected under Moyes’ reign
“He hadn’t realised just how big United is as a club” — stated Ferguson in his My Autobiography about Moyes. How would one recognize Moyes was not ready to take the role? Ferguson advised Moyes to keep coaching staff including the likes of Meulensteen or Steele. Moyes replaced backdoor staff with his own, letting first class experts go and taking his own regiment in. Including Phil Neville — the one less known of Neville brothers.
Faux-pas in the transfer market (when only over-priced Fellaini came in as last call) gave confidence to shy bettors to stop backing United.
Bookmakers were not ready enough to reflect losing Ferguson in their odds. Ferguson took with him his first class coaching and ability to get from players more than anyone else could. As a result, betting against Man United has proven as correct under non-stable reign of Moyes, when any confidence went out of the window. Especially traditional last 15 minutes of match betting for United to score, vanished.
Speaking in numbers after 2014/2014 campaign:
Man United — 895 wins in 1500 games (59.67%)
Man United — 27 wins in 51 games (52.94%) ;-(
Everton as a team where no progress can be done
There was a faulty idea that after Moyes leaving Everton, Martinez could do significantly better. No question about Martinez´s qualities, but Everton cannot get into top 4 as a club. Not when financially strong Man City / Chelsea are dominating the game. Therefore Martinez’s abilities and potential is going to waste and Everton is not doing any better.
Speaking in numbers, Martinez gets acceptable statistics with Everton, but impression stayed with Wigan.
It is likely that betting against Everton will produce some benefit, especially when betting away from home.
Overall mid-table future is expected to happen at Everton at the very end of 2014/2015 campaign.
Wigan losing its soul
After relegation to League Championship, future of club was in minor doubts, still being partially saved by cup performances. After Martinez’s departure everything broke down and it is expected that Wigan will have hard times even with League Championship to survive.
People in Wigan never switched main focus from rugby, having Wigan Warriors No1 team in the town for decades and future will only cement this fact.
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