This is not good.

A hard look at the numbers

Paul Smith
Jul 30, 2017 · 4 min read

In my last post, I provided a step-by-step guide on how to lose your next fav political campaign and promised that Part 2 would tell you how to win your next fav campaign. I’m not there yet. I got stuck looking at the voter registration numbers from the Secretary of State’s February report and realized we needed to have a little data-based ‘come-to-Jesus’ moment. Here we go:

If we add up all registered Republicans, American Independents, and Libertarian voters, and assume this lot of conservatives goes to McClintock, that’s 215,304 voters (48% of registered voters). If we add up Democrats, Green, and Peace and Freedom voters, and assume this bunch of liberals votes for the Dem candidate, that’s 132,570 voters (30%). That’s a difference of 82,734 voters.

There are 91,800 “No Party Preference” voters in the district, and 4,973 “Other” registered voters in the district. Optimists might want to believe that these 96,773 voters (22% of registered voters) could be wooed into voting for a Democrat, thereby making up that 82,734 voter gap. However, there’s a good chance the ideologies of this mysterious bunch are just as entrenched as those of the other political groups, and I’m willing to bet that their makeup is closely aligned to the conservative/liberal split of known registered voters. So, applying the 48%/30% split to this group, that’s another 46,451 voters for McClintock, and 29,032 for the Dem. Totals with these voters brings us to 161,602 for the Dem (36% of total registered voters), and 261,755 for McClintock (59%). (Note btw, my assumption about ideologies is validated somewhat by the fact that this is close to the last election where 37% went to Derlett, and 63% went to McClintock.)

Okay. Not good. That’s a difference of 100,000+ registered voters. This brings us to the part of the story where we cling to hope with our three favorite, fabulously fantastical fantasies:

  1. We just need to GOTV!!!
    In the 2016 election, we had about a 79% voter turnout (350,978 voters out of 445,006 registered). That’s pretty high for the U.S., and I would posit that any extra GOTV effort beyond what we’ve done in the past will have a marginal impact. In fact, if every single registered liberal voter votes, and Republicans have the same turnout as they did last fall, we are still 58,531 votes short. Yes, small numbers matter in close elections, but in order to even get close to ‘close’ we need BIG numbers, and we’re going to need something besides GOTV.
  2. We just need to convince all those moderate Republicans!!!
    Despite what the data continue to show us, we just can’t seem to shake this one. As I previously speculated and as we all know from experience, at this point in the evolution of our political culture, there is no such thing as a ‘moderate Republican!’ Furthermore, despite whatever flagging loyalties we may pick up on as we converse with polite Republicans, at the end of the day, Republicans almost always vote Republican. Full stop.
  3. We just need to register more Democrats!!!
    Using rough math of adults 18 or over in the district, we’ve got about 131,000 unregistered voters. If we assume the ideological leaning of this bunch resembles the rest of the district, 48% of that group is +62,880 conservative voters, and 30% is +39,300 liberal voters. Assuming the GOP registers ZERO new voters, and Democrats register ALL unregistered liberal voters, we still have a deficit of 60,853 registered voters.

In conclusion, we’re screwed. If ALL registered liberal voters vote for the Dem candidate, and ALL liberal NPP’s vote for the Dem, and if ALL the currently unregistered liberals get registered and vote for the Dem… AND, Repubs register NO new voters and have the same voter turnout as the 2016 election…

In this absolute best-case fantasy, we are still 19,231 votes short.

Are you getting the picture yet? Yes, there is a tiny kernel of truth in the above three efforts, and collectively they can move the needle. What we saw recently in the four special elections in Kansas, South Carolina, Wyoming, and Georgia provides good evidence of this. The needle moved substantially! But, please remember… Those were special elections with the focus of the nation on each race independently, resulting in an absolutely astounding amount of special money pouring into each special race. In the end, all that special attention didn’t win us a single, special seat.

So, here we are. At this point we should all be able to agree that investing more in our three favorite go-to election efforts will not be enough. We need to do more. We need to do something different. Given the numbers, the only way win is by convincing conservatives to vote for a Democrat. If you know any conservatives in the district, then you know what an incredibly tall order this is. But, I believe it can be done and in my next post, I’ll share some ideas on how we can make it happen.

Paul Smith

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I write about EdTech and education, but mostly this is where I rant about politics. On Twitter @prsmith2009

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