Great shorting opportunity: Ripple, May to August 2017

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Crypto Trading Notes

This is a diary of my crypto trading with running updates. I apply Ten Rules for Trading Bitcoin, Ethereum and Other Crypto. Newest posts at the top. Analyse: $BTC $ETH $XTZ $MSP $BNB $ZRX. I also advise on ICOs.

[Please clap for this. I tweet about crypto trading: BambouClub ]

#News 12 September 2017 18.43 UCT: Trading Note on Smart Token Exchange STEX (an aggregator of liquidity)

The Smart Token Exchange pre-sale is live. They plan to aggregate exchanges’ liquidity reducing liquidity cost (also known as slippage) to traders. The key is fast API execution, in which they have world-class expeience with their KeyCaptcha business. This project is under the radar but will gain traction. I have invested in the STEX Pre-Sale. (Terms are much better in the pre-sale than in the ICO that follows.)

# 8 September 08.38 UCT: Trading note on Presearch (a decentralized Google)

PreSearch is a decentralized Google. This will happen. ICO is live.

# 31 August 13.38 UCT: Trading note on Bitcoin Futures

If you are new to crypto you are late, but not too late. You need to structure your portfolio in line with your aversion to risk. The largest part of my portfolio is Bitcoin, the safest cryptoasset. I assign a small fraction to high-risk high-reward Bitcoin Futures at BitMex. Use this link to receive a 10% fee discount for the first six months.

My general rule in buying Bitcoin Futures is to buy the dip: you want to see red candles after a period of green candles on the charts.

Another possible strategy, as exercised by a trader I respect, is to keep a leveraged long position on Bitcoin permanently open on Bitmex. When the market rises he takes profit off the table. His position gets closed out periodically when the market moves against him, in which event he simply re-opens it.

Futures trading is also of value when you identify a crypto asset that is in a downward trend or even a death spiral, in which event you can profit by shorting it against BTC at Bitmex. Look at XRPBTC slowly sink from 21,000 Satoshis to 3,410 Sats over the period 18 May 2017 to 18 August 2017.

Also, the day will come when the crypo market goes into a prolonged period of funk or decline. Like DotCom in the Spring of 2000. If you are skilled at trading futures you can use that as an opportunity for gain.

I suggest you trade tiny amounts to start with to become familiar with the Bitmex site. Here is a video tutorial on trading Bitcoin Futures.

Futures trading is available on $BTC, $DASH, $ETH, $ETC, $LTC, $QTUM, $XMR, $XRP, $XTZ, $ZEC.

Buy Bitcoin Futures here.

Do not Short Bitcoin.

# 29 August 21.55 UCT: An obscure but respected privacy coin (think $XMR $ZEC $DASH $PIVX …) that the markets have not discovered — $HUSH

Buy $HUSH here.

# 24 August 14.05 UCT: Tezos $XTZ is on the move

Buy Tezos $XTZ here.

# 16 August 09.00 UCT: Trading Note on Ox Token $ZRX

I participated in the Ox Token $ZRX ICO. You had to jump though hoops to do so. Buy a new phone with Android 6 that works for Civic. Register with Civic. Open a MetaMask Wallet. Register for the ICO. Buy at the ICO. And there was a maximum amount available on Day 1.(6.67 ETH).

Today:

To be honest it has only dawned on me now, the next day, how big Ox Token will become. It will become the platform for global Over The Counter (OTC) trading of cryptoassets. It will enable massive disintermediation of costly and slow-moving exchanges.

# 14 August 19.45 UCT: Trading Note on Binance Coin $BNB

TL DR I continue to seek liquidity and push it across to Binance Exchange and buy $BNB and to a lesser extent $GAS and $BTM. I am liquidating profitable positions in other coins to do so. I also hold $NEO — bought earlier in the summer rather cheaply — but I am not adding to that position.

$BNB dipped last night but I was too tired to trade it.

The next morning:

Binance Exchange is racing up the table of Exchanges:

The Binance White Paper confirms me in my belief that Binance Coin will achieve great things.

# 14 August 02.08 UCT: Trading Note on Tezos $XTZ

Tezos is undervalued on the grey IOU market. Therefore I have been buying (fake) $XTZ. Buy Tezos $XTZ here.

Note. These are not real Tezos.

Calculations to demonstrate under-valuation follow.

This is an interesting explanation of the calculation of the Tezos market cap.

Current price on grey market is $1.26.

Grey market valuation of Market Cap = 763 m. x 80% x $1.26

= $769 million.

That is pretty obviously an under-valuation in the light of current market:

So, the recommendartion is to grab some fake Tezzies. The problem is it’s a really wanky order book with manipulators ready to pounce and you have to pay up to $1.40 to buy a worthwhile amount.

Look at that spread! Look at those pathetic amounts!

# 14 August 01.58 UCT: Trading Note on Binance Coin $BNB $GAS

An extraordinary 24 hours over at Binance. I have taken the decision not to trade in and out of $BNB $GAS taking (substantial) profit as I am planning to hold these tokens for a long time and I do not want to risk losing my positions.

Current prices at Binance:

# 12 August 09.58 UCT: Trading Note on Exchanges: Poloniex, Bittrex, Kraken, Coinbase, Bitfinex, Cryptopia, WCX, Binance

TL DR Most of the large crypto exchanges have serious problems attached to them. I am excited about new exchange Binance and am buying their exchange coin $BNB, & $BTM, $GAS. Current prices:

The stars are re-aligning in the global crypto exchange space.

Binance: This exchange opened in July 2017 and is already Number 16 in the rankings with ADV of about $60 million. I think it might become Number 1. The Exchange is Chinese but easily usable to non-Chinese users. They have a simply superb team led by Changpeng Zhao, low fees, and a clean, simple interface.

$BNB is their own coin. Every quarter, they will use 20% of profits to buy back BNB and destroy them, until they buy 50% of all the BNB back. All buy-back transactions will be announced on the blockchain. They eventually will destroy 100MM BNB, leaving 100MM BNB in circulation.

Poloniex: First, there was a scare about an exit-scam or SEC shutdown of Poloniex similar to that that befell BTC-e a few weeks ago.

The behaviour of Poloniex is strange. They have horrible support. They do not upgrade their listings of coins which is tired and stale. They are leaking trading volume every day to Bittrex. It is as though they have no desire to survive and prosper. This is now being reflected in a decline in the BTC prices of coins that are largely traded on Poloniex. Avoid!

Bittrex: This is a much better exchange than Poloniex. It specialises in low and mid-cap coins. It faces a serious problem, however: it is based and registered in the US. Trading of ICO tokens that pass the Howey Test is not permitted by American exchanges or by US citizens, but it is taking place! I am moving such tokens off Bittrex to non-US exchanges, e.g. $NEO $OMG $QTUM. (I am not an American citizen.)

Kraken & Coinbase: They are good exchanges but again the problem is fucking American regulations. It is not safe to hold large amounts on any US exchange and to move large amounts in and out. The crazy US authorities are liable to seize your assets at any moment.

Bitfinex: The great merit of this exchange is that it is NOT US-based. It is a well-run exchange. They have taken the sensible measure to reduce their exposure to US citizens.

Cryptopia: Since my last post I made and immediately lost a small fortune on masternode coins (including Chaincoin $CHC !), mostly at this New Zealand exchange. My $DOT is still on term deposits there. I am a little disappointed by Topia. They have not cleaned up their horrible messy UI. I also notice that the microcap coins at Topia continually bleed value and the Bid-Offer spreads are of course very large and there sees to be more and more manipulation of the order books.

WCX: Their White paper was simply pathetic. I shall not buy their ICO. Do not touch.

# 10 July 10.26 UCT: Trading Note on Cryptos associated with Crypto Exchanges $DOT $NXT $HEAT $MSP $ROCKET

Growth in Exchange volumes is a certainty.

What coins are associated with exchanges? See this thread:

Longlist: $DOT $HEAT $NXT $XEMP $ROCKET $POSW $MSP

These coins $XEMP $ROCKET $POSW are uninteresting.

Shortlist: $DOT $HEAT $NXT $MSP

I already have large holdings of $DOT locked up in Term Deposits at Cryptopia Exchange. Buy $DOT here.

I have used the HEAT Exchange in the past when I found it a horrible experience. I do not expect this exchange to prosper. I shall continue to keep an eye on $NXT. I participated in the Mothership $MSP ICO.

# 7 July 20.50 UCT: Trading Note on Mothership $MSP ICO

It’s been a tough day. I refer you to my Rules essay not to pay too much attention to 24 h. changes. Spent the day watching Wimbledon on TV and listing to the radio commentary of England vs. South Africa Test at Lords.

My portfolio has weathered the storm pretty well. USD holdings are not shown — they are #5 after Dotcoin at #4. (I have sold 90% of my $EOS for BTC, ETH & USD.)

I participated in the Mothership ICO ($MSP). I am writing a Sheet analysing Crypto Exchanges’ profitability and it is out of this world. It’s a good idea to use any and every avenue to leverage that. The ICO is still open. Referral link.

Bought some more Elastic $XEL at 13,000 Satoshis to average down my horrible buying average of 27,000 Sats.

# 7 July 12.05 UCT: Trading Note on $XTZ Tezos ICO

Encouraged by this information, I bought more Tezos $XTZ.

# 6 July 9.54 UCT: Trading Note on $DOT

Term Deposits at Cryptopia

Cryptopia FAQ

Google Sheet illustrating compound interest rates:

90 Days pays 6.11 % p.a., 180 Days pays 12.84 %, 360 Days pays 19.81 %.

#5 July 17.12 UCT: Trading note on $DOT

DotCoin breached 300 Satoshis today. Wait for the next substantial red candles and buy and lock away in term deposits at Cryptopia Exchange.

#5 July 18.59 UCT: Trading note on Tezos ($XTZ) ICO

A couple of thoughts. I missed the initial 20% bonus period due to computer problems. We are now in the 15% bonus period. So:

ICO Price: 1 BTC = 5,000 XTZ x 1.15 = 5,750 XTZ

1 XTZ = 0.00017391 BTC

Futures price at Bitmex:

1 XTZ = 0.000351 BTC

So, the futures price is double the ICO price. Of course there might be lots of manipulation in the futures market, but a 100% premium is encouraging. I bought $XTZ.

The developers have no plans to immediately list on an exchange after the ICO:

Does one want one’s $XTZ tokens to be illiquid for four plus months? No! Anyway fringe exchanges might grab the business opportunity and provide a dodgy market using ‘IOUs’.

#5 July 18.47 UCT: Trading note on $EOS ICO

That was stressful. My computer crashed when I was travelling in Albania. I was unable to trade from Saturday 1 July to midday UCT Tuesday 4 July. I could watch markets & Tweet using my smart phone but had no access to exchanges as complex passwords are stored in passwords manager on my broken notebook PC. Refer Rule 5 Scale Out. I acted on my intention to scale out of $EOS (i.e. take a good chunk of profit) as soon as possible, which was midday UCT Tuesday 4 July.

Of course $EOS did very well when it was listed on both Kraken and Bitfinex on 1 July.

#30 June 10.47 UCT: Trading note on $EOS ICO & Tezos ($XTZ) ICO

Continue to watch the $EOS Futures price at Bitmex. Unless it increases a lot I shall not be putting more money into the initial 200 m $EOS ICO.

The Tezos ($XTZ) kicks off tomorrow (July 1st, 2017 at 6am UTC.) Those contributing in the first bonus period (400 Bitcoin blockchain blocks) receive the maximum 20% bonus. No need to set your alarm clocks. The ICO is uncapped so the bonus is available for about 66 hours from the start.

#30 June 09.05 UCT: Trading Note on the $EOS ICO

Spreadsheet here. I have dry powder at MyEtherWallet and am watching rate of contributions and EOS futures price with the possibility of buying more EOS at the last minute of first 200 m batch if there remains a nice profit priced in at Bitmex. Register with my Bitmex referral to get reduced trading fees. Other plan might be to buy more EOS now and lock in profits with a leveraged short of same position size at Bitmex.

#30 June 09.05 UCT Trading Note on $DOT:

Dotcoin $DOT is now trading at 211 Satoshis. I refer you to Rule 7 Do not Over-Trade. Lock up Coins, & Rule 8 Let Profits Run. Cut Losses. I buy $DOT Term Deposits at Topia (90 Day or 180 Day) so I cannot get my grubby hands on my tokens and sell them foolishly. Plus you get great interest at rates that don’t exist in the old fiat world. This is only the beginning. Buy $DOT or wait for red candles if you are the prudent type. Expect non-linear returns. Referral link to gain reduced trading fees at Topia.

#29 June 12.17 UCT Trading Note on $DOT:

News release from Cryptopia.

The Exchange finessed a problem into a golden opportunity. The implications are higher network security, zero inflation from miners, likely additional liquidity at Waves DEX. The market has reacted with a rally up to 96 Satoshis from 74. Expect non-linear returns. Referral link to gain reduced trading fees at Topia.

#28 June 9.58 UCT Trading Note on $DOT:

Markets have dipped in the last week. Rule 6: Buy the Dip. I am leveraging growing crypto exchange volumes by buying DotCoin. It’s a steal below 150 Satoshis and is now 74 Satoshis. $DOT is the currency at ultra-low cap exchange Cryptopia. Their daily trading volume has grown YTD 2017 100x from 5 BTC to 500 BTC . That is 10,000 % growth. The price of $DOT tracks that explosive volume growth because you have to buy DotCoin to pay for all services (E.g. Exchange Listing of a Coin, Term Deposits, etc.). $DOT MCap YTD 2017 is x9 despite recent retrace but its MCap is still tiny at $437,000. It’s like a Call on the Cryptopia Daily Volumes underlying. Expect non-linear returns. Referral link to gain reduced trading fees.

[Please click on the Green Heart. I tweet about crypto trading: BambouClub ]