2017 NFL Draft TEs and OL: how the model views them
This is the third in a more detailed look into my statistical model for 2017 NFL draft prospects. You can read an explanation of it and a short FAQ here.
The model, of course, does not take into account Jake Butt’s ACL tear-nor should it. And a lot of the draft universe has David Njoku much higher than a borderline 7th round pick that the model has. But this is probably a case where a good combine will shoot him up the model.
Other than that, this model looks pretty much in line with what the draft universe has. Howard, Leggett and Engram at the top and not a lot of great value otherwise.
The problem for the prospects outside of the top 4 is that with the rise of tight ends who have thrived in the NFL despite not playing much football: what’s the point for a team to take some project late in the draft when they can sniff around some power forwards who aren’t going to make the NBA and save that draft pick for another position.
The Offensive linemen:
I see a large amount of clumping in the offensive linemen. This, like with the wide receivers, is a product of physical traits waiting on the combine. So until I have that data, the value of this is somewhat limited.
That said, some names that stand out to me:
Zach Banner(rated as a high day 2 pick): Most scouts have him as a day 3 prospect.
Pat Elflein(rated as a low day 2 pick): Most scouts have him as the top interior lineman and a potential 1st round pick.
Will Holden(rated as a high day 2 pick): Most scouts have him as a high day 3 pick.
Rod Johnson(rated as a 1st round pick): I personally think much less of him than this as do the scouts.
And there’s no distinction between interior and exterior offensive linemen. This is intentional. College players so often switch positions when they make the jump into the NFL that it’s hard(and pointless) to try and suss out who’s going to play where.