The peasants are revolting (they stink on ice)
I predicted about a year ago that if Trump won, the permanent government would revolt against any attempts by him to do what he promised to do, specifically predicting massive leakage and constant sabotage.
The Flynn debacle is a prime example. Apparently, the Deep State was aghast at the prospect of oversight by someone who knew the game and knew what they were up to. Flynn is a JSOC/DIA guy, so not from their tribe. Not to mention the unhealthy amount of interest he showed in Pizzagate. So, they feloniously leaked recordings of Flynn speaking with Russians. It’s unclear whether those recordings were even made legally, by the way. And they got Flynn fired.
Obviously, this is just the opening salvo.
What happens now?
I predicted before the election that in order to push through the relatively mild and reasonable measures that he was promising during his campaign (actually securing the border, deporting illegal immigrants, etc.,) Trump would encounter the exact same amount of resistance from the “executive” agencies, Congress, the financial elites, the press and academia as he would if he were to launch a coup.
Actually, it would probably be worse, because during a coup the resistance can be overcome more or less at once, whereas enacting his campaign promises would involve protracted attacks from all directions and sabotage from within. Any successful measures he might be able to enact would immediately be overturned under the next administration. And probably he would have to make considerable concessions in order to get those few successes, and those concessions would bear his stamp of approval: “what kind of Nazi are you that you oppose X, which even Hitler Trump signed off on?”
So, I said, he might as well go for the coup. But I doubted he would, because he and the people he would have working for him actually seem to believe in what they learned in high school civics class as the null hypothesis (Bannon may be the exception).
And I don’t think I was wrong. Look at how shocked the administration is at the fact that the executive agencies which nominally work for it more or less transparently tell it to go pound sand. Well, duh-that’s why they call it the permanent government. It doesn’t really care who’s in office on any given day.
Looks like the previous administration’s backers agree. Soros just bet big on Goldman Sachs.
I’d give it a 20% chance that the Left has overreached, by coming out of the gate too aggressively. Trump and his crew are businessmen used to working in hostile conditions. By showing their hand so early and not leaving themselves any room for maneuver, the leftists (meaning everyone to the left of the administration) might trigger a fight response.
The administration has four years to figure it out, to consolidate those parts of the permanent government which are actually loyal (parts of law enforcement and the military,) to work with the economic elites which are not down with the Establishment program (Thiel at least, probably Musk,) and to outflank and outmaneuver their opponents.
The latter are huge and powerful, but also sclerotic, not very energetic, not particularly intelligent (though many are clever) and operating with a playbook that’s 110+ years old.
I would like a soft coup and total reform of American governance, but doubt that Trump and the team have the cynicism, vision and courage to pull it off. It would have to be a move on the scope of the New Deal or the Constitutional Convention, but without the elite backing.