Fresh Start_2.15: Week 1 Kick-off Over/Unders and Thursday Pick
Will the Eagles defend as champions? When will Brady show signs of aging? What will happen in Cleveland with their offensive additions? What will Jimmy G do as the leader in San Fran? Will Deshaun Watson have an All-Pro sophomore season? What will Sam Darnold do in his rookie campaign? These are just some questions entering the 2018–19 season. With the season starting tonight; it’s a great time to give three over and unders that I am high on for this season, as well as my first pick against the spread.
Let’s start with the unders and progress to the teams that I am high on this season. Answering one of the aforementioned questions, I am not high on the Browns like a lot of people are.
Unders:
1. Cleveland Browns: O/U-5 ½
Adding Jarvis Landry and Tyrod Taylor to the offense in the offseason, the Browns will win a game this season but not many. With alternating home and road games for the first four weeks, an out of conference schedule against the NFC South, and Hue Jackson as the head coach I’ll be taking the +130 for the under.
If hark knocks wasn’t enough to tell you that the Browns have a serious coaching problem, really look at their roster. They have an inexperienced secondary with average number seasons is just under three, a linebacker core that is pore in coverage, and an up and down pass rush — the Browns might score a bunch of points but will give up an equal amount. Also, with Jackson leading Cleveland for the third consecutive season, it’s almost a given that the team will under preform even with all this talent. I mean the Browns have one once in two years, what confidence do people have betting the over on this team, much less picking them to go to the playoffs. As long as Hue Jackson has an office in Cleveland, pick the under.
2. Los Angeles Chargers: O/U-9
For some reason this is the popular sleeper pick to shock the world. I have heard some people picking the homeless Chargers to make the Super Bowl. With Philip Rivers entering his 16th season, their best defensive player Joey Bosa starting the year on the shelf, and two scheduled losses (week nine at Seattle and week 13 at Pittsburgh) I’m picking the Chargers to go under at +155.
How much more of a lock could this be? Rivers can barely move at 36-years-old, a head coach in Anthony Lynn that didn’t show much in his first-year coaching, and their two best offensive players (Melvin Gordan and Keenan Allen) spending meaningful time in street clothes. On top of that their defense is good but can’t stay healthy, and a city that could care less about the team with a soccer stadium that could barely hold Philip Rivers kids tell me why this team is going anywhere?
They are competing with a far better team across town in the Rams and the Rams can’t draw people to the coliseum (for a few reasons), but why are they sneaky? Who are they sneaking up on? Arizona maybe but if there are more fans of opposing in the stadium than your own you’ve got a problem. Send this team back to San Diego than we’ll talk.
3. Philadelphia Eagles: O/U-10 ½
I’m not just putting them here because of the Super Bowl hangover deal that is made evident every year around this time from the ridiculous morning sports talk shows. I think this Eagles team hit their window and won a Super Bowl in that window. The Eagles did what they were supposed to do.
I’m taking the under at -110 because of the Wentz injury, we don’t know when he’ll be coming back or how well he’ll play when he does, some of the important role players have moved on or are reacting to the disease of more. The New York Football Giants look like a team that could make noise in the NFC Playoff race getting back Odell Beckham Jr, adding Barkley, and revamping the offensive line. With an easier schedule don’t be surprise if the defending champs will be battling the G-Men done the stretch run.
Overs:
1. Tennessee Titans: O/U-8
Call me crazy, but I think this team could be Super Bowl contenders. The fifth year of Mariota, another year of Derek Henry (plus they added Dion Lewis), a secondary with Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler, and Adoree Jackson (sign me up), plus a first-year head coach in Mike Vrabel that looks like he could be added to the short but successful Belichick coaching tree.
Tennessee has an out of conference schedule against the NFC East, a trip through the AFC East, and they have four out of the last five weeks at home. Add in a shaky Indianapolis team, a stout linebacking core, and one of the most reliable tight-ends in the game — and I am downing the Titans kool-aid at -120 for the over.
2. Green Bay Packers: O/U-10
This number might scare some people off, but may I remind you that the cheese heads posse the most dynamic quarterback in the entire league, a +105 on the over, and just added more weapons. Adding Jimmy Graham to this offense will more than make up for the loss of Jordy Nelson, Ty Montgomery can return to his receiver ways with Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones in front of him, and the Packers still have Cobb and Adams on the outside.
Add in big man Muhammed Wilkerson to aid Mike Daniels and Klay Matthews and you suddenly have one of the more impressive groups on defense and start to plug the big defensive hole that was killing this team in the past.
Looking at their schedule, they have an out of conference schedule against the AFC East, have three out of the last five games at home, and face four warm weather or dome teams at home, while two of those teams are west coast teams (San Fran and Arizona).
Rodgers health could be a concern to some people and steer them away, but with book ends Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiara protecting the All-Pro quarterback #12 should be staying on the field much more this season.
3. Carolina Panthers: O/U-9
This is the one I am all-in on. Push all my chips to the center of the table I am riding Cam Newton and the Panthers to the promise land.
Carolina is in a division that is notorious for having two out of the three teams end up with double digit wins — and this year why not Carolina. Another year of McCaffrey, Greg Olsen healthy, and Devin Funchess looking to explode into a number one receiver, the Panthers looked primed to have another Super Bowl-esc season.
Defensively, this is one of the most sheer-talented groups in the league, with legitimate number one in the league potential. Up front with Dontari Poe and Kawann Short the secondary will be able to force quick turnovers with the amount of pressure these two can deliver. It is the last season for Thomas Davis, so he will inspire the defense even more (if he even has too), and of course, the best middle linebacker in the game Luke Kuechly patrols the middle of the field. Kuechly is always a good candidate for the Defensive Player of the Year and this year I think he takes home those honors.
Getting to their schedule, they have five teams that had a below .500 record last year, play only two potential cold weather games (@ Pittsburgh week 10 and @ Cleveland week 14), and they have the fewest total miles to travel for road games.
At +135 for the over I am gobbling up Panther stock to push all in at the table. This is the surest thing you can call to a lock this season for football — so take it to the bank right now.
For the lines this year, the Thursday night pick will be in the Monday Game Ball column going up on Wednesday, I will be highlighting three games every week which will be my locks. I will be putting those locks on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram (@notthefakejleo, Joseph Leo, and Joeleo_67) on Fridays. And, I will be putting out picks for every game on Sunday mornings. Here is my opening game pick to kick off my fourth year of picking against the lines.
(favorite in caps):
Falcons over EAGLES (-1)
Like many people I am happy football is back. And, like many people, I am happy football gambling is back in my life. Enjoy the season and best of luck to your squad.
