Answering the “Will Snapchat Die” Question
I am thankful to everyone who is taking time out to read this. I’ve written about why it makes sense for WhatsApp to have its own stories clone before. Do check that out before you read this one :)
Most people have more followers on Instagram than on snapchat because of the easy user interface adopted by Instagram. Following people is not a pain and it doesn’t feel weird while following multiple people in one go on Instagram when compared to snapchat where you have to scan codes or know exact snapchat IDs. One thing which I’ve noticed is that most people redirect followers from Instagram to Snapchat. It isn’t uncommon to see people put up their snapchat IDs as their Instagram bios.
Snapchat is soaking up attention by covering three different use cases with a single app: private messaging, social media Stories broadcasting, and professional Discover content. These work together to give people something to do even if their friends don’t post interesting stories, they’re waiting for people to reply, or they don’t resonate with the featured publishers. But “good enough and convenient” — That’s proved a winning strategy for Instagram’s clone.
If you look at the bigger picture, it’s actually a Facebook vs Snapchat war. Its the war of this decade to woo millennials. It all goes back to November of 2013 when Snapchat was worth 800Mn dollars. Facebook reportedly offered snapchat 3 billion dollars and was turned down royally. Facebook didn’t take this well, obviously.
What followed was a serious attempt to dethrone snapchat by launching a slew of snapchat clones (which not a lot of people know about because all fell flat on their faces). Ever heard about Poke, Slingshot, Bolt, and Flash ? No ? EXACTLY !
People were quick to ridicule Evan Spiegel (CEO, Snap Inc) for turning down a 3 Billion dollar acquisition offer. Evan fought back strong and shut all haters by posting a valuation of 10Billion USD in the next fundraise. Suddenly snapchat was a big threat to the Facebook mafia.
If you think this attack (of cloning stories) is sudden, you’re mistaken. Facebook has been trying to break snapchat’s neck since 2014. It is just that their efforts have materialised now and what better time to stab snapchat when they’re about to go public next month. These (successful) attempts are causing investors to flee and reconsider investing in Snapchat’s IPO which is exactly what Facebook wants.
I personally believe that snapchat’s death will occur not because of loss of users but because of its funds drying up. Snapchat posted revenues of 400Mn$ and is looking for a 20Bn$ Valuation. If they’re successful doing that, the valuation:revenue ratio will be 50:1
Most influencers and users reported declines in Snapchat Stories view counts ranging from 15 to 40 percent Everyone is posting way less. Some are not posting at all anymore. In the 25 weeks since launch, Instagram Stories has reached 150 million daily users. That’s the same number of users that Snapchat’s whole app reportedly hit around June 2016, after seeing swift growth from 110 million daily users in December 2015 Snapchat hasn’t disclosed a higher number since.
As for downloads, App Annie shows Snapchat saw a big drop right when Instagram Stories launched at the beginning of August. It fell to its lowest ranking all year, #11, after hovering in the top 3 for the first half of 2016. Asare also believes Instagram’s clone has quickly risen to equal status with teens, noting that “Most kids are starting to post on Instagram or Snapchat, and then post on the one they didn’t post on first.
Influencers that were late to build an audience on Snapchat pretty much abandoned the platform because it was so much easier for them to reach more people through their existing audience on Instagram Stories.
Be it scanning each other’s codes, typing out your username, or using the ‘nearby’ feature, adding someone on Snapchat is a big deal, and feels akin to a huge step in your friendship (it can also easily be misinterpreted as an attempt to flirt)
If you look at YouTube, less than half percent of its users generate content but the remaining ninety nine percent people visit YT for its original content. Snapchat has really failed to convert its content creation tools into something big.
The way I see it, Snapchat could’ve become the byte sized content consumption platform, a serious threat to YouTube. People like Tanmay Bhat, Varun Thakur and Sahil Shah were all using Snapchat to create awesome new content.
Most people are on Twitter to follow stars, cricketers and politicians and not because their friends are. Most people are on Facebook because their friends are. Snapchat had both but it failed to convert it properly.
One problem which continues to pop its head is the weird user experience. I spoke with a Snapchat marketing agency and they said influencers have preferred Instagram Stories over Snapchat because it is easy for people to follow them on Instagram unlike on Snapchat.
Brands are popular on Instagram. Nearly 70% of all Instagram users follow a business, and one-third of the most viewed stories on the platform are made by businesses.
Snapchat is making some of the same mistakes as Vine. They aren’t embracing creators. Instagram promotes social media stars and helps them grow their Stories views by featuring them on its Explore tab that Snapchat lacks.
Yet what matters to Wall Street is growth potential. Ad-driven social networks need massive scale, which usually comes from international domination. That can’t happen if Instagram, Facebook, Messenger, and WhatsApp deliver the Stories feature to foreign countries where Snapchat hasn’t gained traction already. Around 80 percent of Instagram’s 600 million monthly users are international. And if Instagram Stories continues on this trajectory, it could prove bigger than the app it copied.
It is going to be a tough match for Snapchat which is being targeted from all ends by Instagram WhatsApp and Facebook. It will be unfair to say that Snapchat will die because its uses really loved the offerings but it’s interesting to see how long it can sustain and compete with the likes of Facebook
Some Data :
http://expandedramblings.com/index.php/snapchat-statistics/
http://expandedramblings.com/index.php/important-instagram-stats/
But my biggest question is, with thousands of employees and a years-long lead over everyone else, why has Snapchat floundered when its first real competitor has emerged? Facebook is pouring resources into what’s become an all-out war, and it could escalate even further if the 1.83 billion users of the core app are given a way to sync stories across Facebook, Messenger and Instagram in one tap.
Instagram’s added other content types already: live streaming, boomerang, hands-free and a bunch more. It cloned stickers, added filters and assumably, will soon launch face masks with that handy acquisition it made a few years ago. You can tag your friends directly in a picture, and even link out to external websites. Frankly, Instagram has made Snapchat better faster than Snapchat could make Snapchat better.
Snapchat will continue to have a lively user base, though Instagram may inhibit its continued expansion.In six months, the game has changed for Snapchat, and not in its favor. Once the undisputed king of cool amongst Western teenagers with the potential to disrupt the world’s biggest social network, it’s now in danger of becoming just one of several popular apps for ephemeral storytelling.
Dont forget to share this article with people who love discussing about technology, startups and businesses. I’m actively looking for new and different perspectives.
I’ve copied a few lines from the article written by the guys @ TechCrunch. Here is the link to it https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/30/attack-of-the-clone/
