Friday was another positive day, ending 2–1 with two more suspended by darkness/rain. I hit another exact score, as Joker beat RBA 3–1 and I probably need to stop chickening out on unit size with these if I keep seeing opportunities for them. But, it’s hard to complain when every day since Sunday has been profitable.
I also probably need to stop betting 3–0’s that don’t include Rafa, as the same combo has failed two days in a row due to a lost tiebreak (tiebreaks are killing me in Roland Garros). As it is, I’m still 18–10 with a 19th win coming as long as Monfils wins one more game in the morning; and I’ll possibly be 20–10 if Pouille can win the third set after breakfast but, if some of these tiebreaks had flipped I’d be having a massive week.
Saturday is a big day as all three second quarter futures, outlined in the preview article at BangTheBook, will be in action. Plus, Rafa and his two rollovers will be back on court. Rafa should roll. He literally owns Richard Gasquet, like, since they were 15 and Gasman beat him in a juniors event. That obviously pissed Rafa off, and he has won 15 straight as a professional. The three second quarter futures will be sweats though. Flat out. They are all dogs, so nerves will be frayed.
The fact that so many futures are in action means actual dollars outlayed today may be a little light. But, I’ll get started with…
Rafa ml, Rafa 3–0.
I can’t get involved with Marterter/Zopp. On the face of it Marterer should win this easily, and the moneyline price reflects that. But, while Marterer is the higher ranked and presumably the better player, their clay stats don’t necessarily illustrate that. At the tour level they both win just over 30% of the time on clay. At the Challenger level Marterer wins just over 60% of the time, while Zopp wins around 55% — not a huge gap. Their hold/break stats, in 2018, actually favour Zopp, and while 2017 favors Marterer, it’s almost by default — Zopp didn’t play on tour and Marterer only got to an 81% hold/break number.
Zopp is here as a lucky loser and that also scares me. He has been to Roland Garros six times, so if nothing else, he isn’t scared of the atmosphere. If I was going to make any bet here it would be Zopp +5.5 but, I’ll just pass.
Coric and Schwartzman have played twice and Coric has rolled, literally, both times:
Coric rolls again on Saturday. Their career records on clay and their historical hold/break stats are actually very similar; eerily similar. But, 2018 has seen a bigger improvement for Coric than it has for Schwartzman. And that can’t bode well for Schwartzman; this kid has beaten him twice, is improving faster than him, and, thankfully for my piece of mind, has a much better tiebreak record. Tiebreaks have plagued me and if Coric and Schwartzman get into one, I’ll be pretty comfortable with Coric’s chances. I also feel comfortable enough to go handicap.
Anderson should dominate here. Zverev is pretty average on clay, winning around 32% of the time, he has been gifted two wins here by a beautiful draw but, that cinderella run will end Saturday. Unfortunately, the moneyline obviously reflects this and straight sets, while priced beautifully, have failed me a bunch of times at Roland Garros this week. This looks like a pass.
Cilic owns Johnson. He’s beaten him all four times they’ve played and done it pretty handily, only losing one set. However, a lot of the recent sets have been really close. Take a look at their hold/break stats in 2016; Cilic is better on clay by 14 and if you look up grass court stats, you’ll see Cilic was better by 7 (113 to 104). This plays out according to hoyle, as Cilic wins 67, 63,64 in London. Cilic was easily the better player in 2016. Then Johnson and Cilic both start playing better on clay in 2017 but, both their head-to-head’s that year come on other surfaces. Cilic has a 4 point advantage on hards and an 11 point advantage on grass. He wins both matches, although Johnson covers both spreads. This year they finally play on clay and Johnson is actually playing better than Cilic on the surface. If I was going to bet this I would take Johnson moneyline or the plus games. It was one of my reasons for opposing Cilic on the quarter outright. I think there is a good chance he goes down here.
The next three matches are all intriguing but, I have futures invested in all three so, I’m not sure I’ll have much here.
Fognini and Edmund are super even on clay. There is almost nothing between them on the surface, either across their career winning percentage or in their hold/break stats in the last three years. On top of that, they have never played. I have future on Edmund which is essentially, at this point only hedgeable in the next match. I’m not wasting a unit or two here on a Fog hedge, as the future is only 4/1 and that doesn’t leave me any room in the quarter-final. I had kind of been hoping Fog would collapse before this stage but, no luck. Edmund is going to have to win his first really difficult match of the tournament by replicating what he did to Djokovic and Goffin in Madrid and Gasquet in Morocco.
66/1 leaves plenty of room to hedge, unlike with Edmund and ARV. My feeling is though, as it was when the draw came out, that PHH can win this match. Isner and PHH have super close clay hold/break stats across the last two years and while the head-to-head is really in favour of Isner, it’s worth looking in to. They have played twice, ironically, both at grand slams. PHH stole a set at the US Open and when they played on clay at Roland Garros Isner won 75,76,76. I would be happy with a bunch of tiebreaks where I will look to hedge out of PHH a bit. But, nothing pre-match; this 66/1 ticket feels right.
ARV to the bank! That’s what is going to happen, right? 20/1 isn’t that great to hedge with at this point, especially considering I will have to hedge on Monday anyway against Isner if he gets by PHH. And -400 makes it doubly hard. I have to hope ARV grabs a set and then I will look live to trade out my future on a Delpo moneyline. Delpo has a much better clay career and is having a much better clay season than ARV. His hold/break number is up at 118 while ARV is hovering just below his career average, at 98. I had really hoped that Delpo would have been upset by now but, it looks like ARV is up against it. I’ll cheer for a first set win for ARV and hope to get out cheap.
Rafa ml, -5000 x1.022
Rafa 3–0,-700 x139.69
Coric -2.5, -125
Possible Delpo hedge if he drops the first set
Possible Isner hedge if he drops any set