ATP Tennis 2018 November 7th

Jeez, the day went basically exactly how I said it would and I didn’t make any money. That third set in Tsitsipas/Munar hurt. It still hurts.

I’ll take solace in the fact that the tournament started out almost exactly as I thought. I mentioned in the previews that there would be a whole bunch of overs. Overs comfortably went 3–1. Munar kept it close by making his way into THREE tiebreaks. Rublev/Fritz flipped sets all the way to the limit (which I did end up betting on) and Hurkacz pushed Tiafoe just enough to get over the total. The match I maybe read a little wrong was Caruana’s. I figured he’d lose and maybe in straights. But, I thought we’d get a better showing. He won four total games.

The Tsitsipas future looks ok. The Hurkacz dart is obviously in danger now. Hurkacz needed to win that coin flip match, as I expect he’ll lose to Tsitty and beat Munar. It would take a miracle now, of Hurkacz losing close to Tsitty, blowing out Munar and Tiafoe being blown out Tsitty and losing to Munar. To many dominos.

Hurkacz and Munar are almost the same guy to me. I see a ton of tiebreaks here and lots of holds. I hesitate to bet Hurkacz on the spread or to parlay the moneyline just based on his tiebreak performance. He has a terrible record on tour in tiebreaks and even a bad record on the Challenger tour. He lost the one tiebreak he played yesterday as well, double faulting under pressure at 10–10. Munar played three tiebreaks yesterday, winning the most pressure-packed one. Munar also has a winning record on both tours in tiebreaks. I see four long sets, maybe two or three tiebreaks and possibly a Munar win. I’ll take the over and pass on the side.

I thought Caruana might draw on the crowd a bit and put up a better fight in defeat (much the way Quinzi did last year). Instead, he got trucked. Fritz, meanwhile, showed well in losing to Rublev in five sets. I expect Fritz to roll (obviously, he is -1200). What I am going to do here is take the 3–0 instead of the -5.5. My reasoning is that while Fritz may be tad older and more seasoned than ADM, he doesn’t break serve nearly as often as ADM does. ADM won 38% of return points on Caruana’s first serve. I don’t think Fritz can replicate that. So, the potential is there for a tiebreak or a few 4–2 sets. Caruana’s performance was historically bad though, he won only 38% of the points, barely over two points per game played. Fritz better not drop a set.

I don’t handicap Tiafoe matches. Jesus, I’m scared of this match. Mostly, I’m scared that it could be repeated in the final. Much like Rublev/Frizt yesterday, I lean hard to the over (23.5, -125), and I will probably sleep on it and hit it tomorrow. They both played over the total yesterday, they have very similar hold/break stats on hard courts and Tiafoe should be motivated to not repeat their previous match, where Tsitty routined him 4 and 2.

Maybe the under the radar, Macho Man vs Steamboat at Wrestlemania 3, spotlight-stealing match of the day. If all eyes are on Tsitty-Tiafoe, may I suggest you make time to instead watch this match. The two dudes with the highest break percentage on hard courts and the best mobility in the field face off in the final match. They played earlier this year in Washington in the semi-finals (the match that may have started Rublev’s decline) and it was barn-burner, finishing 57,76,64 in favour of ADM. Rublev should want revenge for that. There’s been some noise made about players maybe not wanting to come here and maybe a guy like Rublev complaining about the event but, listen; if Rublev didn’t want to be here he wouldn’t have fought back from 2–1 down against Fritz on Tuesday. I’ll take the dog money on the Russian here.

Hurkacz/Munar o23.5, -120
Fritz 3–0, -150
Rublev ml, +120