ATP Tennis 2018 November 9

For a guy who seemed to have a pretty good read on this tournament, I don’t seem to be hitting my individual bets. Tiafoe, again, let me down.

Friday is win or go home, semifinal day.

Well, I have one future left and I made it a pretty good one. I’m plenty worried though, as Tsitsipas has the much tougher semi.

The stats obviously show that DeMinaur should be a huge favorite. His hold/break numbers are far superior. What is obviously concerning is the head to head. Munar has beaten ADM twice in the last two years, both on hard courts. I’m not sure what to make of that. This match shapes up like a pure strength on strength battle. Big serve vs big return game. ADM is breaking people at a pretty amazing rate for an indoor hard court. The price is wildly out of range and while I won’t have a play, all I could recommend is Munar plus the games.

Rublev was a finalist here last year and this is a super worrisome matchup. Rublev beat Tsitty earlier this year and the hard court numbers match up well. Of course, based on form, one would lean heavily to Tsitsipas and he is priced accordingly. I don’t see an edge in this match and I won’t have a play here either. If you are heavy on a Tsitsipas future it’s tough to even hedge here, as you would probably have to do so again tomorrow in the final.

Just watch and hope.

Good luck