ATP Tennis 2018 Sept 1

BigTenWatto
Sep 1, 2018 · 5 min read

‘Macho Man-ed’ the shit out of the Open yesterday. It wasn’t without its sweats though. Lajovic blew four set points in the first set and I thought when he lost that he was going to fold. Props to him for winning the second set before folding (and folding so bad they only covered the over by two games after two tiebreaks). Anderson went deep into a fifth set with Shapo. Credit to some of my fellow Tennys tennis cappers who refer to KA as the Terminator. It’s true. Dude has somehow found an extra gas tank the last 18 months. He never dies. Even Thiem cost me a few pounds of sweat, as he dropped the first set and then got broke serving for the match before recovering. Although, Thiem did help me land a nice live bet.

Live betting is not easy. I have traditionally avoided it, although it is soooo readily available these days. I have done pretty terrible at it in football, hockey and tennis the few times I have tried. Despite my heavy losses this year, one thing I have gotten markedly better at is live spots. I’ve tweeted out about five or six positions over the summer and they have all won or been easily traded out within about ten minutes of placing the original bet. So, that’s a fun market that I’ll continue to explore.

I’m not trying to hide my terrible futures bankroll or the season total ROI. I publish it every day. I just expanded the view of the daily bets today to show how great the US Open has been. Outside of Thursday, it’s been a blast. I’m hoping it continues to roll.

I did lose my first future though, late last night. Stan had two set points, one on his serve, in the first set tiebreak. He lost the next four to drop the tiebreak 8–6 and literally folded. It was pretty disappointing. I didn’t expect him to win the tournament but, I thought he could get through to the fourth round for an easy hedge. That sucked.

There are eight matches today, five of which look like they could be epic. It’s the first college football Saturday though, and I spent much of Thursday and Friday night handicapping football. So, this will be brief.

Cilic and DeMinaur have both looked super solid so far. Cilic hasn’t dropped a set and after the first five games against Copil, he’s literally only lost four games. In four sets. That’s impressive, even if Copil was hurt. DeMinaur has easily gotten past Daniel and Tiafoe (of course, I was on Tiafoe). DeMinaur has also, obviously, had a huge breakout year. But, while he has beaten lots of big names, when he plays elite, top 20 guys, he gets trucked. The only set he has even won on tour against a top 20 guy was against Thomas Berdych at the Aussie, on home turf. He also won two sets during the Davis Cup against Alex Zverev but, that was also on home turf. Other than those two instances, he has lost in scorelines like 61 and 62 against the likes of Delpo, Edmund, Nadal, and Isner. I think Cilic trucks him.

Goffin pulled out of Cincy. I was worried about his health. He has looked pretty solid here in Flushing Meadows, only dropping one set in a tiebreak to Haase. He generated 14 and 16 break points in the two matches he has played. He has played Struff three times, all on hards, and only ever dropped one set. I’ll grab this moneyline in case Struff steals a set.

Kei and DSS have played twice, both on clay. They took the exact same path: DSS won the first set and then Kei rolled through the second and third sets. I don’t see an edge here. Even the over would be in doubt if it went four sets because four of the six sets these two have played have had 8 games or less. Nothing here.

Kohl is a fellow German that Zverev has struggled with. The last two times they have played Zverev has won comfortably but, they were not on hard courts. I would stipulate that Zverev’s hard court game is progressing fast and hard courts are Kohl’s worst surface. So, I feel comfortable grabbing AZ here for a parlay.

Djokovic owns Gasquet. In the last 8 years, Djoker has won 10 straight matches and only dropped one set.

Kyrgios and Fed. Blockbuster. This will be happening right in the midst of college football Saturday. I hope if you like sports you have two tv’s. One for Fed/NK and one for Auburn/Washington. These two have played three times. There’s been as many tiebreaks played as break points converted. They should both be amped for this — Fed wants slam #21 and NK’s situation on Thursday was commented on by Fed, which should only add to Kyrgios’ motivation; Kyrgios usually does get up for Big Four matches.

There has been no straight setters in this match-up. The over looks tasty, as does a long Fed win.

Cilic -6.5, -120
Federer/Kyrgios o40.5, -138
Federer 3–1 exact score, +275 x0.5
Goffin/Zverev/Djoker 1st set and match/Cilic 1st set and match, +103
(weird parlay, I know, here is how it looks)

Good luck

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