ATP Tennis 2018 Sept 3

BigTenWatto
Sep 2, 2018 · 5 min read

Wow, September has not been kind. Like, worse than any other of the terrible months I’ve had so far in 2018. Lost five straight bets and what I thought was my best outright went up in flames on Saturday night. Gross.

Nothing I’ve capped in the last 48 hours has come even close to being right. That tells me I’m way off my game (not that I’ve been overly ‘on my game’ all summer).

Just Coric left and he faces a huge up-hill battle, with a path of Del Potro Sunday night, Isner or Raonic in the quarter-finals and probably Rafa in the semis. It’s not unexpected but, this tournament has been seriously lacking in upsets and I had hoped for one or two of the big seeds to get upset (the top half of the bracket has only seen three seeds “upset”, with RBA losing to Kubler, huge shock, Sock losing to Basil, small surprise, and Edmund losing to Lorenzi, huge shock; Dimitrov , Dzumhur, Shap, Anderson, Sock Tsitsipas either lost as dogs or small favorites). None of the true threats to Coric, that I identified at the outset, have been eliminated yet. So, Sunday night is going to be dramatic (wrote this early so I could kick back with a Pepsi and watch my lottery ticket).

Cilic and Goffin have played five times recently, four happening in 2016. Goffin won their first three meetings, while Cilic has won the last two. Despite their disparate success (Cilic has won the US Open, been to the Aussie Open final, and won Cincy Masters, all on hards; Goffin won his first and only hard court 500 level event last fall in Tokyo), their hard court numbers are remarkably similar. They are very close in 2018 win/loss on hards, their career hard court win/loss are both over 60%, and their hold/break numbers on hards are almost identical across the last three years. They’ve even played roughly the same number of games to get this point in the tournament. The only two points of difference I can find are Cilic’s past success here and the fact that Cilic may be a tad more tired than Goffin. Cilic’s struggles came in his last match against DeMinaur, after he cruised through the first two rounds. Goffin, conversely, has has three relatively similar matches, each with a tiebreak and some long sets, with none going five. I don’t see an edge here and will avoid the match.

Nishikori and Kohl may have hold/break numbers on hard courts that aren’t that far apart but, that is where the relationship diverges. Kohl has made a career out of dominating 250 level events (and the odd 500), taking care of business against lesser opponents. His history at Grand Slams shows someone who routinely gets walloped when he runs into cream of the crop talent. In 15 years of attending Slams Kohl has advanced past the fourth round ONE time — 2012 Wimbledon, where he was gifted a draw with no one in the top 50 before he reached the quarters. He has certainly had his share of bad luck too, considering he has faced fourth round opponents that include Federer, Djokovic (x2), Nadal, Delpo, and Roddick.
Unlike Kohl, Nishikori has made six Slam quarter-finals, a semi and a final, across all three surfaces. His two best performances were both here at the US Open.
So, while all the stats are only slightly better in favor of Nishikori (hold/break each year, career hards, record this year) the price is justified when you also include Nishikori’s history here. Furthermore, these two have played twice, once recently on hard courts, and Kei has destroyed Kohl both times (64,63,63 at the Aussie and 61,62 at Rome).
One last note about time on court: Kei has only dropped one set and has played 39 less games to get here than Kohl. Kohl has dropped one set in each match to the likes of Yannick Hanfmann and Matthew Ebden, as well as Zverev. So, Kei should also be more fresh. I’ll take Kei on the -5.5 at -110 instead of the 3–0 at +110 just in case he drops a tiebreak. I could see a lost tiebreak being surrounded by a set or two with scores like 61 and 62.

The last two matches on the card are hard to break down due to the insane lines. I’ll cover them at the same time because the analysis is the same for both. One thing to note is the propensity of huge favorites to win but, not cover at this point in the US Open. Kevin Anderson over Andy Murray in 2015, Lucas Pouille over Rafa Nadal, Nishikori over Andy Murray, and Stan over Djokovic, all in 2016, and Delpo over Fed last year are the only big dogs to win a match in the last four rounds of the US Open in the last four years. The round of 16 thru the final are usually pretty chalky. But, these huge favorites only cover the spread about half the time. From the fourth round onward in the last three years huge favorites are only 13–9 at covering the spread.
Now, for these two match-ups in particular, we’re looking at two of the best players ever facing off against two total journeymen who are beyond anything they have previously accomplished at a Slam. Sousa has been to the third round on four previous occasions but, none in the last eight Slams. Millman has also been to the third round on three previous occasions but, never the fourth. Djokovic has covered the handicap in two of his three matches so far, missing out on the 8.5 versus Fucsovics by the hook. Federer has also covered two of three matches, missing out on covering against Paire.
I don’t see any way Sousa challenges here. Sousa has played Djoker four times and been destroyed each time. They have played at a Slam three times and Djoker has covered the -9.5 all three times. Sousa has authored two pretty decent upsets already this tourney and I suspect he’ll be happy with that and go away easy. Millman and Fed have played once before and Millman actually took a set from Fed so, that’s a tad concerning. Could Fed also suffer a small let down after demolishing Kyrgios? Fed has obviously played a ton of round four matches at Slams and covering 8.5 hasn’t been easy for him. In the 9 round four matches he has played since the Aussie 2015 (when my records start) Fed is 4–5 at covering the 8.5. Even if you break it down by rank and eliminate all the ‘harder’ competition he may have faced, he is still only 2–2 at covering the 8.5 against guys outside the top 20 in the fourth round. I’ll go with Djoker and avoid Fed.

Nishikori -5.5, -110
Djokovic -9.5, -120

Good luck

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