ATP Tennis 2018 Sept 7

Semi-final day! What a loaded couple of matches too. A true representation of the tour’s stars, with four guys, all of whom have strong track records in the top 10 and even the top 5.
I said, in the outright preview, the tournament would be ‘chalky’. Sure enough, three of the four semi-finalists were in the top five betting favorites pre-tournament. Novak, Rafa and Delpo were +250, +300, and +1200 respectively. The fourth semi-finalists is Kei Nishikori and while he was +5000 pre-tournament, he is hardly an ‘unknown’ or a Cinderella story, considering he was in the final here three years ago.
Too bad I picked the ‘wrong’ chalk.

No more outrights this week and nothing next week, as the tour takes a break for the Davis Cup (don’t worry, I already lost an outright there, on Germany 16/1, just to stay consistent with my performance this year). So, no chance to fix the outright bankroll until the Asian tour starts.
There are two tournaments in Germany and France in mid-September as the tour moves east, and then a month in Asia, before returning to Europe for two weeks to wrap up the season. The six-week drive to the conclusion is almost upon us.

Nadal/Delpo
Nadal, Delpo, blockbuster. Who remembers last year? This is an exact re-match, in the exact same spot as the 2017 US Open. Of course, the situation is an exact reverse in terms of the player's path this year. In 2017 Delpo got rolled by Rafa, 46,60,63,62. But, Delpo was coming off a tough four-setter against Federer in the previous round and an even tougher five-setter in the round before that against Thiem (where Delpo came back from two sets down). This was contrasted by Rafa’s path where he came into the match with Delpo off two straight setters against Rublev and Dolgopolov (six sets in which Rafa had dropped a total of 12 games). This year it’s Rafa that has experienced the tough five-setter and tough four-setter in the run-up (four sets against Basil and five epic sets against Thiem — top five match of the year?). Conversely, Delpo ran over Coric in three quick sets and got through Isner in four relatively safe sets. Does that reverse the chances that Delpo can win this year? The odds would tell you as much.
Last year Rafa was -275 favorite and this year he is only -163. This is in spite of the fact that the head-to-head is even more in his favor than it was at this time last year. After beating Delpo last year at the Open Rafa repeated the success at both the French Open and Wimbledon this year (these two apparently only want to play each other at slams now). It would appear, each time, that Rafa got stronger as the matches went on, as maybe Delpo’s fitness faded — winning the final two sets each time.

Now, the asterisk to all this past head-to-head is, of course, that these two played one other famous US Open semi-final. In 2009, when Delpo famously upset Federer in the final, he did so after destroying Rafa in the semis, 62,62,62. In fact, all five of Delpo’s wins over Rafa have come on hard courts. The concern with relying on that stat though is that those wins came on much faster surfaces — Shanghai, Rio Olympics, Montreal, and a faster version of the US Open (Delpo’s first win over Rafa was in Miami, which is actually notoriously slow for a hard court, so there is that). It is also important to note that the Miami win, the Montreal win and the US Open win were all in 2009 — the peak of Delpo’s injury-interrupted career. Is any of that repeatable?
My guess is no. Comparing paths to last year is all well and good but, Rafa’s fitness is incomparable. He gets a day off on Thursday and I expect him to be, while not fresh, at least ready to rock and roll come Friday. The hard court hold/break stats over the past three years show a slight advantage to Rafa and help dictate this moneyline. It would not surprise me though if Delpo came out quick and took the first set. If you remove matches played on clay between these two you’ll see Delpo either wins or at least gets a set in all their recent matches (since Delpo ‘came of age’ in 2009 Rafa has only won in straights twice, once at Roland Garros and once at Indian Wells). Furthermore, in their last eleven matches (again, removing Roland Garros) Delpo has won the first set nine times. I feel comfortable taking the over, because with both their current levels, I totally see them splitting the first two sets. I also can see Delpo getting worn down by the energizer bunny that is Rafa Nadal. So, the 3–1 exact score and the Rafa handicap intrigue me, as he may pull away late in the match.
Delpo/Rafa o40.5, -120
Rafa -2.5 games, -110
Rafa 3–1 exact score, +333 x0.5
Delpo first set, +110 x0.5
Djoker/Nishikori
Another semi-final with a crazy head-to-head. This one is even more lopsided and straightforward. Djokovic leads 14–2!
The irrelevant facts are that all non-hard court matches between these two have been won by Djoker. On clay or grass Kei almost always gets a set despite losing.
Now, on hard courts, it’s a different story. Kei won two of their first three match-ups back in 2013 and 2014. Both his wins over Djokovic came on hard courts. Since winning those two early match-ups on hard courts though, this rivalry has been all one-way traffic. Djokovic has won an astounding thirteen matches in a row. Seven of those thirteen have been on hard courts and Nishikori hasn’t won a set in the last six hard court matches. That is true domination. To put that another way, Novak has won seven straight hardcourt matches, which includes a streak of twelve straight sets and fifteen of the last sixteen sets.
The hard court stats hold/break stats are actually pretty unreliable. There is a ten percent gap in 2018 but, Kei spent much of the beginning of the season rehabbing his injury from last year and was not in full form until the clay swing got underway. So, you can probably discount 2018’s stats. In 2017 their hold/break stats are almost the same but, Kei was injured in the summer and done playing by August while Novak was arguably unhealthy all year and done playing by July.
So, how can you make a case for betting Nishikori here? Well, he is a top ten talent on tour. His most famous moment probably came here at the US Open in 2014 when he upset Djokovic in this very round, the semi-finals. It was one of his two victories over Novak and he entered the top ten to stay right after that event. Kei remained in the top ten from that moment, in September of 2014, right up until he was injured last August — a span of three full consecutive years. Can he repeat his upset from 2014? I doubt it. There is just too much Novak dominance to overcome. I also can’t get behind backing Djokovic in any way. He has only dropped two sets in the tournament but, he has hardly ever looked comfortable. He struggled through straight set wins over John Millman and Joao Sousa in the last two rounds and Kei is a much, much better player than those two. It wouldn’t be shocking if Kei somehow grabbed a set but, based on their history, it also wouldn’t be surprising if Novak swept this.
One bet to look at is the under. Four set unders can happen with these two. So, it’s probably safe, even if Kei grabs a set. They’ve only played one tiebreak in four grand slam matches. In Djokovic’s thirteen match winning streak, there have been 33 sets and only four have reached twelve games. There have been tons of 63, 62 sets. The O/U is only set at 34.5 but, just look at their Wimbledon match from six weeks ago — Novak won in four sets, containing only 34 games. I’ll avoid this match altogether.
Good luck