Moscow, Stockholm, Antwerp

One of the weirdest weeks on the tennis calendar. Squished in between a Masters Series event in Shanghai and the year-end Masters Series event in Paris, we get a week with three 250’s. Just about everybody on tour has managed their 500 level tournament commitments and most everyone was in Shanghai, so capping motivation this week is more paramount than just about any week on the schedule. Does the player care? Did they get a big bag of money to extend their season? Are they killing time till Paris? Do they need the points from this week to replace points from last year? Do they need points this week to accomplish something in the present — like the Race to London, like staying in the top 100 guaranteeing entry into Australia, like qualifying for the Milan #nextgen tourney? There are lots of angles to look at this week, not only in the outright market but, also in match-to-match betting. Keep a wary eye out.
Moscow

Despite the preamble above, this tournament may be the easiest one of the season to handicap. Much like when Djokovic shows up to a 500 level event you are simply handicapping one man. Is Medvedev tired? Does he care? That’s it. Medvedev has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt he is as close to joining the ‘Big Three’ as you can get without winning a Slam. He has beaten all his contemporaries and he has beaten Djokovic multiple times. He has made SIX straight finals. His three losses in that stretch have been to Nick Kyrgios, Rafa Nadal, and Rafa Nadal. There is no one in this Moscow field that can tough him if his form holds. Usually the strategy here would be to find a guy in one of the other quarters and hope Meds gets upset or that you can hedge in the semis or the finals should your player face Meds. However, that is probably not an option here. It is unlikely there is anyone in the draw that Meds would be priced at lower than -500 against. He was -350 against Rublev in St. Pete’s three weeks ago and that went down in straights and Meds has won two titles since, not dropping a set to anyone. The one exception may be Khachanov, the number two seed here. Meds was -200 to KK in Montreal, where they met in the semis. Meds dropped a breadstick on his fellow Russian and has obviously gone on to make five straight finals since that match. Khachanov, conversely, has won four total matches in that time span. That match, should they meet in the finals is somewhere between Meds -400 and Meds -500. Unfortunately, that means, if you are betting this tournament you are essentially deciding on Meds at even money or slight juice or a complete pass. It is doubtful a Meds moneyline rollover will get you to even money — he’d have to be less than -500 in all four of his matches and that is probably not going to happen given his first match is against a qualifier.
One thing to watch is Rublev’s first round match. It is conceivable, if Meds actually gets tired, that Rublev could push him in the quarter-final. Here’s the rub though. Rublev is 0–6 in Moscow. Now, being only 21, that 0–6 obviously includes losses when Rublev was as young as 15. But, it’s still 0–6. If Rublev goes down to Bublik, Meds’ price should rise to -134 or -150. That is a hittable given what would be left in the draw.
The last angle here is Khachanov to win the fourth quarter. He is the defending champ here, doesn’t have the toughest draw (this field is basically three Russian stars and a bunch of also-rans) and at -120, is a good bet at a reasonable number.
Stockholm

This is a rough field. Fognini is the only player in the top 25 to make his way to Sweden. Yet, despite the lack of star power, you would be well versed if you realized this tournament has a chalky history. Four times in the last ten years the top seed has won the tourney and eight of the last ten years the winner has been a top 4 seed ranked inside the top 25. The two exceptions were in 2013 when a 22 year-old Dimitrov was busy announcing himself on the scene. He was ranked 28th at the time and just a few months away from a breakout 2014 that saw him make the quarters of the Aussie and the semis at Wimbeldon. The second exception was in 2016 when Delpo won the tournament as a wildcard. Of course, he was coming back from one of his litany of injuries and isn’t a ‘true’ unseeded player. He repeated in 2017 as the 4th seed. So, which big name in Stockholm cares the most?
Fog cares. He is having the best 18 month run of his career and is as close to qualifying for London as he is ever going to get. 250 points here and a decent showing next week in Basel would go a long, long way to getting him into the top 9 (assuming Nadal doesn’t play). Of course, Fog’s price is commiserate with that opinion and on top of a terrible price, he has Opelka in his draw. Opelka is a monster on indoor hard courts and someone this space hit an outright on during an indoor tournament in February. It looks near impossible to pick a winner between Fog and Opelka though, so, let’s look elsewhere.
Shapo is 0–7 in semi-finals and has therefore never made a final at the ATP level. He’s played this week of the calendar every year and between Antwerp, Stockholm and Challenger events in North America he’s never been past the second round of an event. He’s out, even with a cake walk of a quarter.
One thing to look at in the second quarter is Mikael Ymer at +500 to win the quarter. With two qualifiers and some inconsistent tour vets he has an outside shot to come out. He is on a 15–1 stretch in his last four events, winning back-to-back Challenger events coming in here this week. It’s not a litany of top 50 wins but, especially in Orleans three weeks ago, everyone he beat was in the top 100. Ymer has yet to make a dent at the ATP level so, the number should be bigger but, it’s not the worst bet on the board.
The best bet for a motivated guy with an easier draw is Dan Evans. The fourth quarter is loaded with PCB, Sam Querrey and Grigor Dimitrov; all guys with motivational reasons to be here, which makes them dangerous. Dimitrov has been all over the map and after looking like he was ‘back’ at the US Open he has busted out early in consecutive events on the Asian Swing. He has had a ton of success in Stockholm and could be looking for another get-right spot. PCB won Metz a few weeks ago and after an injury-riddled year is sitting at #37 in the world and looking to get into the top #32 for the Aussie. Querrey has also been injured and missed a ton of time this year. He has won in spurts though, like during the grass season which saw him make the finals in Eastbourne and the quarters at Wimbledon. He is, unfortunately, on the verge of falling out of the top 50 though and needs the points this week.
So, back to Evans, in the third quarter. Fritz is the big seed here, and with a title and another final already this year, a ranking of #29, no real chance of getting into the top 20 and having fulfilled all his tournament attendance obligations for 2019, there is no real reason for him to be here other than, he didn’t want to go home before coming back for Paris. So, Fritz is attackable. Evans is #43 in the world, he is less than 200 points behind #32 and should be uber-motivated. He has yet to win a title on tour and is a decent indoor hard court player having won four Challenger level titles on this surface to go with five outdoor hard court Challenger titles and two outdoor hard court ATP finals (one this year in Delray Beach). His hold/break numbers on hard courts are easily among the best of the players in Stockholm and his number, 18/1 is palatable.
Antwerp

Antwerp is easily the best field amoung this week's offerings and should be the most competitive event. This tourney has only been around for three years so the data is not extensive. What you should know is all three winners, Edmund, Gasquet and Tsonga have great career indoor records. All three were top four seeds in their respective tournament, drawing a bye in the round one, and all three had at least the 80/20 hold/break combo on hard courts. There were 15 tiebreaks in 26 matches last year so we’d also want a top seed who is great in tiebreaks. Goffin is not good in tiebreaks and he hasn’t won a title in over two years since injuring his leg at the French Open. Also, his price is only 4/1 and he doesn’t hold serve 80% of the time. Monfils went to the finals here last year and has the requisite stats you’d be looking for on hard courts. He also has a crazy easy draw. It’s hard to argue against taking him this week. The drawbacks would be that he is on his fourth straight week of travel, having played all three weeks of the Asian Swing and he did poorly all three weeks. Additionally, his price is only 4/1. Wawrinka is the other seeded player with a bye who is priced at 4/1. Wawrinka, like Goffin, hasn’t won a title since his injury layoff two and a half years ago. He has made some deep runs, like Rotterdam this year and the US Open but, has looked worn out in each of those losses. It is conceivable he won’t ever have that stamina again. The guy who could take Wawrinka down is Jo-Willy Tsonga. Tsonga has similar tiebreak stats to Stan and better hold/break numbers on hard courts. He also has infinitely more success on indoor hard courts. Western European indoor events, in France, Belgium and Holland, are Tsonga’s domain. He has won an incredible 11 titles on indoor hards in those three countries alone in his career. He checks every box this week and already has two similar titles this year. His price is 8/1, double that of the other three favorites and it can only be assumed that is because he has to play an extra match. Still worth it.
Moscow
Khachanov to win Quarter 4, -120
Stockholm
Evans outright 16/1, x 0.5
Antwerp
Tsonga outright, 8/1
Andy Murray to win Quarter 3, +110, x0.5