Its semi-final day. And the first appetizer is the Outback Bowl featuring Michigan and South Carolina.
The line for this game opened Mich -7.5 and it has crept up this morning to Mich -9. These are pretty dead once it gets past 7 but, it still illustrates the money pouring in on Michigan. The question is, what is the reason for the influx? Is it because Michigan really is better or is it because the B10 is undefeated in bowl games and only has failed to cover one game? The answer is probably a little bit of both.
The expected points scored and expected points allowed show Michigan should be favored but, maybe not by 9.
The line is little higher obviously, showing value on SC but, the extreme low score on South Carolina is super concerning. 14? The team total is 15.5 at ost books, might be something there.
The yards per play metric also shows value on South Carolina. But, again, the extreme defensive numbers for Michigan present a little concern.
There is a good chance we haven’t seen this kind of statistical dominance in a game yet. The projected score for SC is really concerning, especially when combined with the gaudy Michigan defensive numbers.
Bentley is a solid and fun qb but, he has 11 int’s in 11 Div I games. Expect him to turn it over today and contribute to Michigan covering this number. Additionally, look at a prop such as will there be a defensive or special teams TD paying about +220.