The second course on the semi final menu is the Peach bowl pitting the UCF Knights against the Auburn Tigers.
The line for this game opened Auburn -8.5 and has climbed throughout the last week or so to Auburn -12.
None of the spread projection numbers support this kind of Auburn dominance.
Expected points scored and expected points allowed actually show UCF being favored by 1.
Yards per play is just as complimentary to UCF. It also shows a potential spread of UCF -1, a whopping 13 points of value.
The efficiency and defensive stats are a mixed bag that don’t really point to dominance from any one team.
Auburn definitely has the better defense. And it was tested against a much stronger schedule as well. According to many sources Auburn played the toughest schedule in the nation. Compare that with UCF’s schedule which ranks about 67th and the idea that Auburn’s defense will destroy UCF is pretty imaginable.
This game is a no play. Just too undecided on how excited the UCF players are to play for Scott Frost and how excited the Auburn players are to even be here considering the Playoff was right in their grasp.