What future does Nigeria hold? If at all it holds one? I explore Nigeria’s past, present, and future in this piece. In this piece will you equally find discussions on the new naira notes, Nigerian cultures, corruption, and the coming 2023 election. I hope you have a wonderful time on this page.
There Was A Country
It has been 62 years since independence. Is Nigeria still merely a geographical expression? Truly, if I must admit, it is hard to imagine whether Nigeria was ever any better than it is today. Kind of a bold claim, you would say. But hear me out.
One main reason we gained independence was because of the many nationalist movements. Essentially, the geography that is Nigeria had a common enemy — the colonizers. So, it was relatively easy for the people from the different zones that have been amalgamated into a single country to demand that they be handed their independence. Time for self-rule.
Would you argue that when Anthony Enahoro moved the motion for independence in 1953, Nnamdi Azikiwe was right to say, “as soon as practicable”? For you to have an easier time with your answer, here’s one factor to consider: these many regions of people with different ethnicities have been brought together by the colonial masters for easier administrative purposes through indirect rule.
To emphasize, the entire idea of Nigeria came into existence for lots of reasons, but primarily for the convenience of administration by the colonizers, without any true referendum or consent from these different people whether or not they wish to be tied into a relationship that will potentially last forever. But will it last forever? Stick around. This article is about to get a whole lot of fun. So, I guess we’ll find out?
There were lots of differences between these regions that were merged in 1960. Even in 1914 when Lugard amalgamated the Northern and Southern protectorates, they still had their differences. The differences became more and more obvious over time. As of 1950, the North made up 57% of the population, with a literacy rate of 4%. This is compared unfavourably with 18% in the West, which had 20% of the population, and 16% literacy level in the East with 24% of the total population.
Regardless, we gained independence in 1960. “Mission accomplished, now what” — said no one ever. But it all came crashing down after decisions of which region power should reside came into question.
312 years after the death of Christ, the emperor of Rome — Constantine — adopted Christianity as the primary religion. This, in part, was a political move since it unified the empire (not for long, since they broke into Catholic-Byzantine and Orthodox-East in 1054 AD) that was filled with people with different identities. But Constantine claimed that he saw the vision of a cross. Perhaps he did.
Anyway, Nigeria after independence had no particular national vision that could unite the people. Rather, it instantly plunged into a chaotic struggle for power between the regions. Ultimately, it led to a military coup in 1966, and a civil war in the following year. This is perhaps an oversimplification, but it works.
We inherited the democratic system of government from our colonizers. “Government of the people, for the people, and by the people.” It kind of has a nice ring to it. Abraham Lincoln would definitely have made a good rapper.
Who dares oppose the idea of people’s participation in determining who gets to rule them? Well, Plato, and most of Europe in the 18 thcentury.
Plato (and Aristotle alike) believed that democracy (rule by the many) is a perverted form of aristocracy (rule by the few), which was his preferred form of government. This is a little ironic since Athens (in Ancient Greece) was very democratic. First of its kind.
The Europeans rallied against France in the 18 th-19 thcentury following the revolution that overthrew the monarchy of Louis XVI in 1789. The revolution was intended to establish a republic. Or something relatively close to a constitutional monarchy. Here’s where the very first National Assembly was established.
“But Phaze, you retard, this article isn’t about European history.” I hear you loud and clear. You do see the correlation, right? But anyway, I digress.
The pre-colonial Yoruba were probably the only ones in Africa to have anything relatively close to a constitutional monarch. So, was democracy the answer? A system of government that is alien to the African people. But we inherited it, and naturally, as at Nigeria’s independence, power went to the North, with Tafawa Balewa emerging as the first prime minister.
Democracy wasn’t the only thing we inherited, structural problems, an avenue for politicians to loot money, a struggle for regional supremacy, the problem of cultural assimilation, conflicts of interest, etc… With all that I have highlighted, are you able to answer the first question I raised on the prematurity of our independence? Or you will throw it all out for the option that Nigeria should never have existed.
The latter option raises the argument that each region should have remained their distinct country. If that’s the case, was it then right for the Igbo (Biafra) people to attempt to have their own independent state during the Nigerian Civil War of 1967? Or perhaps, it is not so black and white? Is the situation just like that of Sri Lanka at independence of 1965?
So many questions, so few answers. But ultimately, was there ever a country?
Things Fall Apart
Things fall apart on their own accord. But their fall could be accelerated by conscious human actions.
The 4 threpublic of Nigeria started in 1999. How much has changed since then? One might even argue that Nigeria is in worse shape than it is today. A classic argument of “Nigeria is growing, but is it developing? Our GDP rises and falls, but has the livelihood of Nigerians ever been better?.”
How much has changed? Truly.
You look back at the 90s, all the bards and musicians ever sang about was how much the government represses them, and how much the people are suffering. In the early 2000s, the same old songs were sung. In 2004, “Nigeria jagajaga” became the voice of the people. Different drums, same old songs. What has changed?
Suffering, you might argue, is relative. But that doesn’t change the fact. “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” This doesn’t seem to be the story for Nigeria. Hard times have created fraudsters, corrupt bureaucracies, corrupt populations, a culture of pseudo-prostitution, corrupt politicians, and a culture of hooliganism that is so deep it’s even made its way into the entertainment and political arena. It doesn’t end here.
These morally ambiguous behaviours have mostly come to be accepted in Nigeria. I know what people go through, so I’d hate to climb on a moral high horse and pretend that I am any better than those who engage in whatever it is they have to do to make a living. I am after all a product of this same system.
Hard times in Nigeria have equally created some of the most creative people in Africa. You’ll find Nigerians today in almost every part of the world. We have some of the most successful and creative start-ups in Africa. Heck, even in the world.
So, just like every other thing, there are advantages and disadvantages. But do the cons of these hard times justify the pros? When do the hard times end? It certainly hasn’t ended 62 years after independence. So, when? Nigeria at 80? 90? 200? Never?
Do you never wish things were better? A country that actively locks up its literates. A country that cares less about education. A country where the political arena is so dirty, it could never produce any truly acceptable candidate for any relevant political position. We’ve always had to pick someone we believe is the lesser evil.
Have things not fallen apart? Or shall we maintain the illusion that this is a functioning country? Perhaps that keeps us sane and stops us from creating havoc each time the country does something against the wishes of the people.
What is the future of Nigeria?
Last year, the National Bureau Of Statistics revealed that over 63% of Nigerians (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. To be poor multidimensionally is to be deprived along three dimensions of well-being — monetary poverty, education, and basic infrastructure services. This is how much the people are suffering.
Just like De Javu, we are yet again to pick a lesser evil to drive the country for the next four years. What future does Nigeria hold when it is ruled by the same cargo of politicians and political parties? The administration of Buhari has taken the country backwards and brought suffering to the people. So much so that the people consider PDP the lesser evil between that party and APC.
The Future Of Nigeria
Democracy is a popularity contest. In Nigeria, it has always been treated as such. Democracy is the false god of the hopeless. Perhaps even the hopeful.
Nigeria is not built for democracy. Capitalism as a mode of economy barely even works. When was the last time government was for the people? How about by the people? Yar Ardua? Well, I’ll leave you to that judgement.
Would you say, hypothetically, that the 250 ethnic groups in Nigeria are victims of a forced relationship that has always been toxic? Fair question, I would say. But fortunately, social media and all the technological revolutions of the 90s have come to make these ethnicities more integrated. So, it’s fair to say that Nigeria’s problem isn’t ethnicity. Or for lack of a better word, unity.
Or perhaps it is just the illusion that there is unity. Politicians in their campaigns engage in divisive methods such as tribalism to gain political posts. This is most evident in the “Yoruba lo kan” mantra that Tinubu is pushing. Your ethnicity shouldn’t be an indication of how you make the best candidate to be at the highest position of a country.
But that’s besides the point.
Nigeria is a funny country, you see. Sanity here is overrated. You have too be able to switch up your temperament from time to time like a person with a personality disorder. You have to be sane and insane at the same time.
If you are mostly only sane, you are but a waiting victim to anyone that has any capacity to be the most insane person they could be.
In petty conflicts, arguments are usually drawn around the idea of being quiet literally madder than the other person. I’m talking of the good ol “I get werey for head o” stance that is supposed to argumentatively show a superior level of madness over the other person. Nigerians are funny people, I tell you Lagosians know this status quo better.
Our coping mechanisms include memes, garri, BBN, Bod Republic, and hope for a better Nigeria. The men find solace in big bumbum, shayo, and faji, since these are what most Nigerian pop culture songs are about.
This is an overgeneralization, so I hope you can forgive my horrible sense of humour.
I know too that the women find solace in wigs, Alchemy of Soul, money, and the illusion or the wish of a soft girl lifestyle. Who am I to judge? I know too well too that dark/brown skin women are the only things stopping me from causing havoc. So, we all cope differently.
Nigeria Today, And Tomorrow
Historically speaking, most countries/kingdoms/civilizations only exist for a short period. The Carthaginian, Roman, Persian, Mughal, Austro-Hungarian, German, Ottoman, Russian, Yoruba Kingdom, Hausa Emirates, etc.
After the first world war, many old countries collapsed. Many new ones were born. Same thing after world war two.
The historical fact is that socio-political realities only temporarily exist, in one form or the other. So, Nigeria today might not exist in 50 years.
Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, in 4–5 years, Ukraine might not exist again. In most cases, it doesn’t have to be externally induced. Countries tend to tear themselves apart internally.
Judging by Wikipedia’s Fragile State Index, which is an index that is characterized by the non-provision of public services; widespread corruption and criminality; refugees and involuntary movement of populations; and sharp economic decline, Nigeria ranks number 16 on the list of very fragile countries.
The historical trend of revolutions has to do with social, economic and/or cultural change. When there are drastic changes in those factors, it means that a new system is about to be established. Or simply that the old one is about to be destroyed.
Other historical causes of revolution include aggravated youths, wealth inequality, starvation among the masses, the impossibility of social mobility, peoples’ distrust in the institutions of the state, corruption among the politicians, low or lack of nationalism among the citizens, apathetic political stance among the majority of the people, etc. These are some major factors that lead to revolutions.
How many of these symptoms do you think Nigeria exhibits? Well.
Not all revolutions are bloody. The silent revolution in Nigeria right now is the mass rally behind Peter Obi, so he could oppose the status quo. Which is the dominant two-party system that the country technically operates on.
During one of my Political Science lectures, my lecturer hinted that the only reason Peter Obi is in the spotlight is that most Nigerians, especially the youths, see him as the instrument to challenge the system, oppose the status quo, and bring about change.
Nigeria today is in a bad shape. Using our GDP (Gross Domestic Product), we may argue that Nigeria is among the most developed countries in Africa. But using HDI (Human Development Index), Nigeria isn’t among the top 30 African countries (source, Wikipedia). I don’t think it is obvious enough, but Nigerians are truly suffering. Life could be better.
The hardship on the people took a different turn recently, following the introduction of the new naira notes. I’ll play the devil’s advocate here and argue on the side of Buhari’s administration that the idea was to make useless all the looted and hidden money that was intended to literally buy the votes of the people during the general election.
Forget not that these politicians hoarded palliatives that were meant to go to the people during one of the most critical times. Anything to get to a political position, except gaining the trust of the people, and working on your promises. Such is the political arena of Nigeria. If you can’t beat them, you join them. Right?
Anyway. Another argument is that it might raise the value of the already failing naira currency. But is it effective thus far? Has this in any way made the lives of Nigerians any better? No. It is having the opposite effect.
If there’s anything this entire “new cash” fiasco has shown me, it is how much Nigerians are willing to exploit their fellow Nigerians when the opportunity rises.
How are we any better than the politicians we so much mock and ridicule? Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. So, what are the chances that this culture of corruption that has infested all aspects of the Nigerian life will stop when those who are willing to misuse their position as a POS operator get the opportunity to be in a political position?
Assume you lie and cheat people as a POS operator, then you do it as a landowner, as a chairperson of a committee, the government of an organisation, and on and on. Where does it stop? What would be the moral justification? That you can get away with it? Perhaps so.
Nigerians, I’ve come to find, are the problems of Nigeria. This isn’t exactly a Nobel Laurette-worthy discovery. Those who are Nigerians know Nigerians.
But Nigeria can be a better place. We are agents of the state. The destiny of Nigeria rests on our shoulders (yes, this is a Merlin reference).
It doesn’t help running away. This is our home. We should fight for it. We should develop a vision for a better future.
It starts with me; it starts with you. It starts with the littlest of things like holding on to your refuse until you find the appropriate place to dump it.
It starts with you getting involved in political activities at any level you can participate, not just in presidential elections. It starts with you educating those whom you can educate on any subject that might benefit them. Get your voter’s card, and vote for the candidate of your choice.
These micro-activities may not have major impacts, but it is a good start. Fight for a better Nigeria. Giving up helps no one. Holding on to the hope of a better Nigeria is how you can answer the question “what is the future of Nigeria?” Otherwise, all we have is pessimism. As a philosophically minded person, I’ll tell you this much; it gets us nowhere. Maybe Nigeria is in a bad shape, but we can be optimistic and act towards a better Nigeria.
Epilogue
I hope you’ve had a wonderful time on this page. While writing this, I realized that it is officially the longest article I’ve ever written.
Only a few people today have the attention span that can keep them till this part. So, hey, if you’ve read up till this part, you deserve all the accolades you get. And thank you very much for reading this article.
Again, thank you very much. If you have comments, I’d love to hear them. So, please don’t hesitate to write in the comment section. I read all the comments I get.
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I hope to see you again next week. Cheers!
Originally published at http://bigphaze.wordpress.com on February 12, 2023.
