Crypto 2025 Outlook

Summary：

The 2025 cryptocurrency outlook anticipates stable U.S. economic growth despite inflation and increasing global monetary policy divergence. Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to attract significant ETF inflows, potentially exceeding $150 billion, enhancing institutional confidence and DeFi innovations. Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions are expected to expand, driving on-chain activity. The Solana ecosystem may achieve ETF approvals and growth in PayFi. Memecoins will remain popular, reflecting investor sentiment, while stablecoins are projected to surpass $250 billion in market capitalization, bolstered by regulatory clarity. Overall, 2025 promises transformative developments in the crypto space.

Ⅰ、Predictions for 2025

1. In 2025, the global economy is expected to continue the trend of “U.S. exception.” The U.S. economy is likely to exhibit a complex combination of stable employment and stubborn inflation, potentially leading to a gradual halt in interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, non-U.S. economies, represented by China and Europe, may adopt significant rate-cutting policies under the pressure of economic downturns, further intensifying the divergence in global monetary policies.

2. Against the backdrop of U.S. government debt expansion and Donald Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies, BTC ETFs are expected to attract over $50 billion in net inflows, with assets under management potentially exceeding $150 billion. During this bullish cycle, MicroStrategy has achieved significant benefits through BTC investments, a model that may be widely emulated by more companies on a large scale.

3. The focus of the Bitcoin ecosystem will center on the development of Bitcoin staking and the BTCFi. Bitcoin staking protocols, represented by Babylon, provide security for PoS chains through Bitcoin staking while generating interest income for stakers. These yield-generating innovative applications could drive widespread attention to BTCFi across both on-chain and traditional financial sectors.

4. Within the Ethereum ecosystem, the status of Layer 2 is expected to grow further, and on-chain activities will gradually shift from the Ethereum mainnet to Layer 2 networks. Projects such as Base and Arbitrum demonstrate significant potential and are worth close attention. Additionally, the ETH ETF is likely to open up staking rights, which will further increase ETH staking rates and provide new growth momentum for the liquid staking sector.

5. In the Solana ecosystem, 2025 could see the approval of a Solana ETF. Beyond Meme projects, PayFi, as an emerging sector, leverages Solana’s low costs and high performance to enable instant settlements, offering robust support for creators and corporate financing. It is expected to occupy an important position in the ecosystem.

6. The Meme sector will continue to be a key focus of the market. With the ongoing improvement of infrastructure, user participation is expected to increase further. In addition to the Solana ecosystem, platforms like Base and Sui are also expected to take over spillover traffic, fostering high-quality Meme projects. Meanwhile, the Desci sector may experience rapid growth driven by the Meme craze.

7. The AI sector is unlikely to achieve substantial breakthroughs in the short term and is expected to continue its current competitive dynamics, with a focus on the development of AI Meme projects. AI Agent projects will continue to issue a large number of Meme tokens. Due to the growing market attention, distributed computing power projects related to AI may have a good opportunity for development.

8. Stablecoins and payment services are expected to grow rapidly. Benefiting from the functional advantages of dollar tokenization, the expanding market demand, and progress in U.S. stablecoin regulation, the total market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to surpass $250 billion. Leading financial institutions are likely to accelerate their entry into this field, exploring the potential of blockchain as financial infrastructure and focusing on the development of new clearing and settlement systems.

9. The RWA market is expected to continue expanding, with the market size possibly reaching $40 billion by 2025. As traditional financial institutions increase their investments in the crypto market, particularly in U.S. Treasury bonds, corporate debt, and real estate, the popularity of tokenization applications will further rise, injecting new vitality into traditional assets.

10. More transparent and relatively relaxed regulatory policies will inject new vitality into DeFi. During the interest rate downcycle, DeFi platforms, with their high-yield offerings, are expected to attract more attention and participation from traditional financial institutions. New DeFi projects, such as Hyperliquid, may become an important force in this trend.

Ⅱ、Macroeconomic Situation

Review of the Macroeconomy in 2024

In 2024, the U.S. economy continued its relatively strong growth trend, with the annual GDP growth rate expected to reach 2.2%. After ending the interest rate hike cycle at the beginning of the year, the Federal Reserve gradually shifted its monetary policy towards easing, but core inflation remained at a high level. The U.S. stock market performed strongly, especially with the rise of tech stocks, driving the S&P 500 index to repeatedly hit new highs. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, economic data indicated that the U.S. successfully achieved a “soft landing,” essentially disproving predictions of a “hard landing.”

The following three charts illustrate the U.S. GDP growth rate, debt leverage levels, and the proportion of non-financial corporate profits to GDP. As shown in the charts, the U.S. economy in 2024 demonstrated significant growth resilience, with the GDP growth rate further improving compared to 2023, while both debt levels and corporate profit conditions remained within a relatively healthy range.

Figure 1: U.S. GDP Growth Rate, Data Source: Bloomberg

Figure 2: U.S. Private Sector & Non-Financial Corporate Debt Leverage Ratio, Data Source: Bloomberg

Figure 3: Proportion of Non-Financial Corporate Profits to U.S. GDP, Data Source: Bloomberg

The U.S. labor market has shown resilience but is gradually cooling down. The unemployment rate has remained below 4.3%, close to the natural rate of unemployment, while the labor force participation rate has continued to rise. Although wage growth has slowed, it remains at a relatively high level. By the second half of 2024, the number of job vacancies has returned to levels close to those seen before the pandemic. Additionally, inflation has fallen back to a range of 2%-3%, but it still exhibits somewhat stubborn.

Figure 4: U.S. Unemployment Rate and Job Vacancies, Data Source: Fred

Figure 5: U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate, Data Source: Fred

Figure 6: U.S. Consumer Price Index, Data Source: Fred

The eurozone economy performed relatively weakly in 2024, particularly in the manufacturing sector, with GDP growth expected to be only 1.1% for the year. The European Central Bank’s monetary policy remained tight, and although inflation eased somewhat, it stayed within a high range, putting pressure on consumers and businesses. As the pillar of the eurozone economy, Germany’s economic growth was just 0.5%, mainly dragged down by weak manufacturing and declining exports, and is expected to maintain a slowdown in the future. In contrast, the economies of France and Italy showed slightly more stability, with GDP growth expected to be 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

Japan’s economy remained relatively stable in 2024, with GDP growth projected at 1.0%. Although the economy performed steadily in the short term, the aging population posed a severe challenge to long-term growth. In terms of the labor market, the unemployment rate remained low, but the issue of labor shortages, exacerbated by demographic changes, became increasingly serious, potentially impacting overall economic vitality.

Macroeconomic Outlook for 2025

In terms of economic growth, U.S. real GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2025, slightly lower than the 2.5% growth for 2024, but still above the long-term trend level of 1.8%. The U.S. economy will continue to experience steady growth, at a slower pace.

Regarding employment, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.3% in 2025, up from 4.2% in 2024. The unemployment rate will remain relatively low, with the labor market staying overall healthy.

On inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is expected to reach 2.5% in 2025, slightly higher than 2.4% in 2024. The core PCE inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is expected to be 2.5% in 2025, gradually declining to 2.2% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.

In terms of monetary policy, the federal funds rate is expected to decrease to 3.9% in 2025, lower than 4.4% in 2024. If the U.S. economy continues to exhibit the complex characteristics of stable employment and persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve may gradually halt interest rate cuts.

Ⅲ、Development of Key Ecosystems

1、Bitcoin Ecosystem

Market Performance

At the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin continued the bullish momentum from the previous year, reaching a peak of $73,881 in March. In April, the highly anticipated halving event took place, but the market did not initiate the long-term upward cycle as expected. Instead, in June, a combination of factors — such as the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike decision and the Mt. Gox compensation case — intensified market uncertainty, leading to a significant correction in Bitcoin’s price.

In the second half of the year, the crypto market saw a turning point. Expectations of interest rate cuts brought hope to the market, driving a gradual recovery. Additionally, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election became a key factor in the market’s strong rebound. As market confidence returned, Bitcoin broke through the significant $100,000 level and reached an all-time high of $108,353 on December 17th. The policy expectations, economic stimulus measures and potential support for Bitcoin and other crypto assets stemming from Trump’s win became crucial drivers of the market’s robust rebound.

Figure 7: BTC Price, Data Source: CMC

On January 11, 2024, the SEC approved the listing of BTC ETFs, this decision led to the simultaneous launch of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, marking the beginning of a new era for Bitcoin. As of December 26, the total net asset value of these 11 ETFs had reached $108.18B, holding over 1.133M BTC, which accounts for 5.39% of the total Bitcoin supply. Compared to 651,000 BTC in January, the holdings of Bitcoin in December had increased by 74%. Among them, BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF surpassed Grayscale to become the largest Bitcoin spot ETF by holdings.

The growth trend in Bitcoin holdings within spot ETFs reflects a gradual increase in institutional Users confidence in the Bitcoin market. It also indicates that Bitcoin is steadily becoming a part of broader investment portfolios, further solidifying its position as digital gold.

Figure 8: BTC ETF, Data Source:Glassnode

Figure 9: BTC ETF Net Inflows, Data Source:Glassnode

Bitcoin 2025 Outlook

National Strategic Reserves

The outlook for Bitcoin in 2025 could be significantly influenced by major policy changes in the United States and other countries. This year, Trump stated at the Bitcoin 2024 conference that if he were to become president again, he would retain all the Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government and make it a core component of the nation’s strategic Bitcoin reserves. If Trump signs the draft presidential executive order on the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserves,” which was drafted by the U.S. Bitcoin Policy Institute, Bitcoin would officially be incorporated into the U.S. Treasury’s Foreign Exchange Stabilization Fund and become part of the nation’s strategic reserve assets. This would further elevate Bitcoin’s historical status and potentially make it an effective tool for combating inflation and economic turmoil. The inclusion of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset could enhance the global circulation and safe-haven attributes of the U.S. dollar, providing additional market support for the dollar amidst global financial instability or rising inflationary pressures. If this policy is implemented, it could increase demand for Bitcoin and impact its price trajectory. Should the U.S. adopt this strategic measure, it would have far-reaching effects on the global financial landscape and might prompt other countries to accelerate the adoption of crypto assets, thus reshaping the structure of global reserve assets.

At the same time, Bitcoin itself cannot be fully controlled by any single country, which means it can still serve as an alternative asset, offering opportunities for countries seeking to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. For nations like Russia, which aim to decrease their reliance on the dollar, Bitcoin is seen as an effective tool to circumvent the dollar’s dominance. Particularly in the face of sanctions or political risks, Bitcoin can provide these countries with greater financial autonomy. In the global financial system, Bitcoin may play a “dual role” — both as a complement to strong currencies (such as the U.S. dollar) and as an “alternative” choice for weaker nations to counter dollar hegemony. This complexity could make Bitcoin a significant variable in future international financial power dynamics.

Corporate reserve assets

As Bitcoin’s position in the global financial system continues to rise, it is expected that by 2025, more and more traditional companies will follow MicroStrategy’s lead in adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset. As the first publicly traded company to integrate Bitcoin into its balance sheet on a large scale, MicroStrategy has successfully validated the feasibility of this strategy. Since 2020, MicroStrategy has actively purchased Bitcoin, and as of now, it holds nearly 444,000 BTC, with a total market value of approximately $42.2 billion. By utilizing financing methods such as convertible bonds, MicroStrategy has not only successfully allocated Bitcoin as a long-term store of value but also benefited from the price appreciation of Bitcoin, which has significantly boosted the company’s stock price and market capitalization, allowing it to enter the Nasdaq-100 index.

An increasing number of companies are considering incorporating Bitcoin into their asset allocation strategies, especially in the context of rising global economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. The appeal of Bitcoin as a hedge will become even more apparent. In the future, as more companies emulate MicroStrategy’s approach, Bitcoin may become an indispensable part of corporate asset management, further elevating its position in the global financial system.

BTCFi

With the introduction of BTC scaling solutions and the rise of Bitcoin Staking Tokens (BTC LST), Bitcoin is gradually transforming from an asset used solely for value storage into one that can participate in more on-chain yield scenarios. According to data from DeFillama, the TVL in the BTC ecosystem increased from $306 million to $6.81 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2,125%. It is expected that by 2025, Bitcoin will become the core asset of the global DeFi ecosystem, with the TVL surpassing $20 billion.

BitVM and OP_CAT will play key roles in the development of BTCFi. BitVM, through trust-minimized cross-chain bridge solutions, is expected to make Bitcoin’s cross-chain operations more secure and efficient. The introduction of BitVM breaks the limitations of Bitcoin in terms of programmability and cross-chain security, making cross-chain operations on the Bitcoin blockchain more reliable. OP_CAT, on the other hand, provides Bitcoin with smart contract functionality, allowing developers to build decentralized applications directly on the Bitcoin mainnet. This technology could enable Bitcoin to implement expenditure scripts similar to a “vault” function and offer a more secure mechanism for cross-chain bridges, thereby driving Bitcoin’s widespread adoption in the DeFi space.

Although BitVM and OP_CAT currently face challenges such as technical complexity, inefficiency, and security issues, once successfully implemented, they will undoubtedly enhance the functionality and scalability of the Bitcoin network. As these technologies mature, BTCFi is expected to develop into a vibrant and highly promising ecosystem by 2025, further solidifying Bitcoin’s core position in the DeFi and financial sectors.

Figure 10: BTC Ecosystem TVL, Data Source: DeFillama

2、Ethereum Ecosystem

Market Performance

In 2024, Ethereum fundamentals failed to fully support a strong price surge. Despite positive developments such as the Cancun upgrade and the approval of Ethereum ETFs, these factors did not effectively push ETH’s price past its historical highs. The victory of Donald Trump drove a strong rally in the crypto market, with Bitcoin breaking its all-time high and driving ETH price up to $4,106. However, after briefly surpassing its March price peak, ETH quickly retraced. As of December 30, ETH price increase for the year was only 49.5%, well below Bitcoin’s 121.6%. Furthermore, the ETH/BTC exchange rate followed a long-term weakening trend in 2024, dropping from 0.053 to as low as 0.032, only recently showing a slight rebound.

Figure 11: ETH Price, Data Source: CoinMarkerCap

Figure 12: ETH/BTC Exchange Rate, Data Source: CoinMarketCap

The Ethereum spot ETF was officially launched on July 23, 2024. However, its market performance has not met expectations since its introduction. Data indicates that the holdings of the Ethereum ETF increased from 2.789M to 3.622M ETH, showing a 29.8% year-on-year growth. The total asset value rose from $10.24 billion to $12.11 billion, reflecting an 18% increase compared to the previous year. Despite some growth, the performance of the ETH ETF falls significantly short of that of the BTC ETF.

This phenomenon may primarily be attributed to the following three factors: First, Ethereum was not the first cryptocurrency to launch a spot ETF. Previously, the Bitcoin spot ETF, as the first crypto ETF to be approved, attracted significant new liquidity and garnered substantial market attention. In contrast, the launch of the Ethereum ETF failed to replicate the liquidity-increasing effect seen with Bitcoin’s ETF in the short term. Second, the Ethereum ETF was not granted staking permissions, which is a key difference between Ethereum and Bitcoin. Users typically earn additional returns by staking Ethereum, but since the ETF cannot participate in staking, its potential returns are lower, reducing its appeal to Users. Lastly, Ethereum’s price performance in 2024 has been relatively weak. Against the background of Bitcoin repeatedly breaking through new highs, the price of Ethereum has always hovered in a range below the previous high, which has significantly reduced retail Users’ enthusiasm for buying related funds.

In conclusion, the performance of the Ethereum Spot ETF in 2024 has been constrained by several factors, including insufficient liquidity inflows, the absence of staking functionality, and underwhelming price performance. The ETF market appeal is expected to improve contingent upon the approval of staking capabilities and a potential recovery in Ethereum’s price.

Figure 13: ETH ETF, Data Source: Glassnode

Figure 14: ETH ETF Net Inflows, Data Source: Glassnode

Layer 2

In 2024, Layer 2 remains one of the hottest tracks within the Ethereum ecosystem, with its TVL increasing by 168% over the past year, further solidifying its central role in the cryptocurrency industry. Following the Cancun upgrade, Layer 2 has seen significant improvements in transaction fees, TPS, and other performance metrics. Various indicators, including the number of active addresses, data publishing on the Ethereum mainnet, and Gas fee expenditures, show a growing shift in on-chain activity toward Layer 2 solutions, rather than the traditional Ethereum mainnet. This trend suggests that the dominance of Layer 2 is steadily increasing, and its influence on the Ethereum network continues to expand.

Figure 15: Layer 2 TVL, Data Source: L2BEAT

Figure 16: Layer 2 TPS and Transaction Volume, Data Source: L2BEAT

In recent years, a diverse array of Layer 2 solutions has emerged, leading to a highly competitive and vibrant landscape within the L2 track. As mature Layer 2 solutions, Arbitrum and Optimism continue to maintain strong competitive advantages due to their inherent strengths. Meanwhile, Base, as an emerging solution, has stood out with its remarkable growth in key metrics such as TVL. zkSync Era and StarkNet, through ongoing optimizations of zero-knowledge proof (ZK) technology, have continuously reduced Gas fees and enhanced settlement speeds, further solidifying their market positions. Newly launched solutions such as Scroll and Taiko have made significant breakthroughs in the ZK-EVM space, aiming to provide developers with a more Ethereum-compatible development experience. ZK-EVM technology has become an irreversible trend in the industry’s development and is undoubtedly an important direction to watch in the future.

Figure 17:Layer 2 TVL Market Share, Data Source: Defillama

Liquid Staking

As of December 22, the total amount of staked ETH on the Ethereum Beacon Chain has reached 34,213,997, representing 27.9% of the total supply. Since the Shanghai upgrade in March, net ETH inflows have amounted to 16,047,943. With the continued increase in the staking rate of ETH, the staking yield has decreased to approximately 3%. In pursuit of higher staking returns, Users have increasingly shifted their focus to Liquid Restaking Tokens (LRTs). In 2024, restaking emerged as one of the central topics within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Amid the rapid growth in demand for the utility of staked assets, restaking projects, exemplified by Eigenlayer, have experienced robust development. According to DeFiLlama data, on January 1, 2024, the TVL in Ethereum liquidity restaking protocols was approximately $284 million. By December 23, this figure had grown nearly 50-fold, reaching $14.1 billion, highlighting this sector’s substantial growth potential and market interest.

Figure 18: ETH Staking Data, Data Source: Dune

Figure 19: Liquidity Restaking Protocol TVL, Data Source: Defillama

Ethereum Outlook for 2025

With the launch of the Ethereum Spot ETF, the participation threshold for traditional financial institutions and retail users has significantly decreased, thereby driving an increase in ETH liquidity. However, due to the lack of approval for staking capabilities, the market performance of the Ethereum Spot ETF has not met expectations. The absence of staking functionality has limited the possibility for users to earn additional yields through the ETF, thereby diminishing its appeal.

In 2025, Donald Trump’s inauguration and Gary Gensler’s departure may result in a major shift in the SEC’s regulatory policies. The SEC’s historically strict oversight has often been seen as a significant barrier to the growth of the cryptocurrency industry. However, the Trump administration is expected to ease these policies and may appoint a more crypto-friendly SEC chair. This change would create a favorable opportunity for approval staking capabilities within the Ethereum Spot ETF. Once staking functionality is implemented, it will significantly enhance the potential returns of the Ethereum Spot ETF and become its core competitive advantage over the Bitcoin Spot ETF. Due to current trends, the Ethereum Spot ETF is anticipated to grow significantly in 2025, with its value expected to exceed $50 billion, making it a key market driver and a focal point for users.

While enhancing the performance of the Ethereum network, Layer 2 solutions will drive widespread adoption of Web3 applications, further solidifying Ethereum’s core position in the blockchain ecosystem. Scalability of ZK-Rollups: The ongoing optimization of zero-knowledge proof (ZK) technology will further enhance the advantages of ZK-Rollups in scalability and cost efficiency, positioning them to become the dominant scaling solution in the future. Significant Improvement in Cross-Chain Interoperability: Asset flow and cross-chain interactions between Layer 2 networks will become more seamless, enhancing overall network connectivity and user experience. Acceleration of Ecosystem Diversification: Web3 applications will be deployed on Layer 2 at scale, spanning various sub-sectors such as blockchain gaming, NFTs, and DeFi, thus enriching the user experience.

In 2025, the Ethereum liquid staking market is expected to experience further growth, although it will also face potential risks and competitive pressures. As mentioned earlier, the approval of staking functionality for the Ethereum Spot ETF will attract greater participation from traditional users, thereby increasing staking demand and driving the expansion of the liquid staking market. Lido will maintain its leadership in liquid staking, while centralized staking service providers have considerably increased their market share over the past year. According to DeFiLlama data, the LST TVL of major players such as Binance and Coinbase has entered the top five, with wBETH’s market share reaching 12%. As the scale of ETH ETFs expands, it is expected that the market share of cbETH and wBETH will continue to grow.

Figure 20: Ethereum LSDs TVL, Data Source: Defillama

In 2024, the overall market size of the restaking sector expanded approximately fivefold, with Eigenlayer emerging as the core protocol of the space, attracting around $15 billion in TVL, making it one of the most significant protocols in the Ethereum ecosystem. However, from a project performance perspective, restaking protocols face severe homogenization, and maintaining TVL post-token issuance has become a major challenge. Since Eigenlayer completed its token issuance, the sector’s valuation has undergone a new round of reshuffling. For those LRT projects that have not yet undergone their TGE, 2025 will see their viability further constrained, with the sector’s siphoning effect becoming increasingly apparent.

Figure 21: Restaking Token Supply by Project and Market Share, Data Source: Dune

3、Solana Ecosystem

Market Performance

Over the past year, Solana has experienced significant growth in both price and market capitalization. On November 22, the SOL price surged to $264.3, reaching an all-time high. As of December 22, the SOL price increased from $109.5 at the beginning of the year to $179.2, representing a growth of 63.6%. In terms of market capitalization, it grew from $47 billion at the start of the year to $85.8 billion, reflecting an increase of 82.4%.

Figure 22: Solana Market Cap and Price, Data Source: CoinMarketCap

Following the market crash in 2022, Solana rapidly regained momentum by leveraging Meme culture to attract a significant influx of users and liquidity. The network subsequently expanded into sectors such as DePIN and DeFi, fully capitalizing on the advantages of a high-performance public blockchain. This strategy successfully drew industry-leading projects such as Render, Grass, and IO.net into the ecosystem. This innovative growth path contributed to Solana’s strong market performance in 2024, propelling it to become the third-largest public blockchain after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The following three charts illustrate the number of active addresses, new Meme launches, and DEX trading volume on the Solana network. As depicted in the charts, the number of Memes on the Solana blockchain began to significantly rise at the start of the year, with explosive growth occurring in the second half. Along with the surge in new Meme launches, the number of active addresses and DEX trading volume on Solana also saw substantial increases. This indicates that the rise of Meme culture effectively attracted a large number of retail users to engage in trading within the Solana ecosystem, further driving its market activity.

Figure 23: Number of New Memes on Solana, Data Source: Dune

Figure 24: Daily Active Addresses on Solana, Data Source: Artemis

Figure 25: Solana DEX Trading Volume, Data Source: Dune

Leveraging its high performance and low-cost advantages, Solana has become the natural public blockchain for the development of DePIN. As of December 23, the global DePIN market capitalization was approximately $33.35 billion, with Solana commanding a 19.8% market share ($6.59 billion), second only to Ethereum’s 34.8% share ($11.61 billion). Several leading projects in the DePIN space, such as Helium, Render, and Hivemapper, have been established on Solana. In 2024, the rapid expansion of DePIN has brought a significant user base and increased market attention to Solana.

However, as these projects continue to evolve and new protocols emerge, Solana is experiencing increasing competition within the DePIN sector. Other platforms, such as Polygon, Base, and Arbitrum, are also expanding their presence in the DePIN market, seeking to capture a share of this growing field. This situation suggests that Solana must work to maintain its market leadership in a more competitive environment.

Figure 26: DePIN Market Share Distribution, Data Source: Dune

Solana Outlook for 2025

SOL ETF

With the election of Donald Trump and the policy backdrop supporting cryptocurrencies, the regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025 is likely to experience significant changes. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is expected to step down in January 2025, and the new regulatory leadership may shift the current “enforcement-based” regulatory approach toward a more relaxed one. This shift would greatly increase the likelihood of approval for cryptocurrency asset ETFs. Coupled with the appointment of pro-crypto members in both the Trump administration and Congress, this is expected to foster a more favorable regulatory environment for the approval of a Solana ETF.

Solana’s lack of a developed futures market hinders ETF approval. Significant advancements in Solana’s decentralization, particularly the increase in validator nodes, have positioned it to gradually exhibit characteristics similar to those of commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This progression provides a legal basis for its entry into the commodity ETF approval process. Additionally, referencing the 2018 CFTC vs. My Big Coin case, even without a mature futures market, Solana could still be classified as a commodity, thereby supporting its ETF application. Therefore, despite the risk of being classified as an unregistered security, Solana’s legal developments offer potential support for the approval of its ETF.

As the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Solana has seen its native token SOL break historical price records, demonstrating strong growth momentum. The demand for a Solana ETF is increasing concurrently. Solana’s position in the cryptocurrency market remains solid, with several institutions already having applied for ETFs for other cryptocurrencies (such as VanEck, 21 Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise).

Firedancer

Firedancer is of paramount importance to Solana’s future development. It is a new Solana validator client developed by Jump Crypto, with its mainnet deployment expected in 2025. Upon implementation, three key objectives should be achieved: the documentation and standardization of the code, and diversification of the validator client pool. The overall goal is to revolutionize the user and developer experience. In simpler terms, Firedancer will significantly enhance Solana performance, reliability, scalability, and overall network efficiency by supporting more concurrent transactions while lowering operational costs for node operators. Notably, Firedancer’s introduction will address the current single point of failure in Solana (one of the biggest reasons for Solana’s frequent downtime) and reduce the possibility of the chain being stopped in the future.

Figure 27: Solana sustained Transactions Per Second (excluding voting transactions), Data Source: Blockworks

PayFi

The concept of PayFi was introduced by Lily Liu, Chair of the Solana Foundation, during her keynote speech at the 7th EthCC conference titled “The Emergence of PayFi: Realizing the Vision of Cryptocurrency.” The core concept of PayFi centers around “instant settlement,” which holds significant value, especially in speculative trading. The new “Buy Now, Pay Never” model provides innovative pathways for creator monetization, invoice financing, and payment risk management. PayFi’s primary advantage is its use of Solana’s high-performance, low-cost blockchain, which enables real-time settlements and promotes financial innovation.

PayFi has a wide range of application scenarios, particularly in speculative trading and creator monetization. By supporting a “Buy Now, Pay Later” model, users can invest funds into DeFi products and utilize the interest generated to cover expenses without touching their principal. Additionally, PayFi addresses liquidity challenges for creators by allowing them to access anticipated earnings in advance, thus accelerating their creative process. For enterprises, PayFi optimizes accounts receivable and supply chain financing, facilitating the flow of capital and lowering financing barriers. Furthermore, PayFi aims to address liquidity issues in traditional finance by leveraging Real-World Assets (RWA). This involves the digitization of assets such as real estate and receivables, thereby enhancing their liquidity on the blockchain and accelerating cross-border payments and capital flows.

It is important to note that while PayFi offers a revolutionary solution, its adoption faces significant challenges. Regulatory concerns and scalability remain the primary obstacles. Currently, the global financial regulatory framework has not fully adapted to blockchain technology, particularly in terms of establishing a legal framework for its legitimacy. Additionally, the scalability of blockchain networks, particularly during peak periods of transaction congestion, is a critical issue for achieving broad application. However, with the expected regulatory relaxation following Trump’s presidency and technological innovations like Solana’s Firedancer, these challenges will be resolved. As a result, the future development of PayFi within the Solana ecosystem appears promising.

SOL Staking

In the second half of this year, the staking and restaking sector of Solana gained significant traction, with major Solana staking protocols and centralized exchanges launching related staking activities. As shown in the figure below, since August, the market capitalization of Solana LST has experienced exponential growth, with an overall increase exceeding 100%. The main reason for this increase is that Solana’s staking and restaking systems provide potentially higher returns than Ethereum, attracting many users to engage in staking activities.

Figure 28: Solana Staking Market Cap, Data Source: Dune

4、Sui Ecosystem

Market Performance

On December 15, Sui reached a new all-time high, peaking at $4.83. Over the past year, Sui has garnered significant market attention due to its impressive price performance. Some users believe that Sui has the potential to replicate the success of Solana from the previous cycle, thereby driving a breakthrough in Layer 1.

In 2024, Sui benefited from the robust development of the DeFi ecosystem, with its TVL experiencing remarkable growth. TVL surged from $210 million to $1.75 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 733%. Additionally, after hitting its lowest point in nearly a year in May 2024, the ratio of Sui’s market cap to TVL quickly rebounded, continuing to rise alongside the price surge since July. As Sui’s price sets new highs, its market cap/TVL ratio has also peaked. However, whether this upward price trend can be sustained remains to be seen, as it will depend on the broader market dynamics and the continued development of the Sui ecosystem.

Figure 29: Sui Market Cap and Price, Data Source: CMC

Figure 30：MC/TVL Ratio，Data Source：DeFillma

In 2024, Sui listed several stablecoins, and the ongoing expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem is expected to have a profound impact on its DeFi sector, injecting further potential into the entire ecosystem. Among the various stablecoins, USDC has stood out significantly. As of December 24, the total market capitalization of USDC within the Sui ecosystem reached $238 million, accounting for 61.4%. USDC continues to dominate, underscoring its central position within the Sui ecosystem. Despite recent market fluctuations, the overall performance indicates that stablecoin activities within Sui’s DeFi ecosystem remain resilient and dynamic, laying a solid foundation for sustained growth in the future. Meanwhile, the introduction of USDT and smaller stablecoins such as Agora and Ondo has provided strong support for the continued expansion of the Sui ecosystem, further enhancing its diversity and demonstrating the healthy and diverse stablecoin ecosystem on Sui.

Figure 31：Sui Ecological Stablecoin Market Value，Data Source：DeFillma

Figure 32：Sui Ecological Stablecoin Market Share，Data Source：DeFillma

In 2024, Sui drove the implementation of several innovative projects and expanded its ecosystem within the DeFi sector. By implementing cross-chain bridges and automated investment tools, Sui enhanced asset liquidity and cross-chain interoperability while providing users with lower-risk, more diversified investment options. For instance, on September 30, Sui officially launched SuiBridge, breaking down the barriers between Sui and Ethereum and enabling asset transfers between the two, thereby improving cross-chain interoperability. Additionally, AlphaFi launched the innovative Sui Vault, which, in combination with the Navi and Volo protocols, offered users the highest returns, attracting $4.5 million in deposits within just 24 hours. This series of new projects marks Sui’s steady progress in establishing an efficient, interoperable, and diversified DeFi ecosystem, laying a solid foundation for future growth. As a result, Sui’s TVL surged from $210 million at the beginning of the year to $1.75 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 733%.

Sui Outlook for 2025

At the Korea Blockchain Week in September 2024, Sui announced the launch of SuiPlay0X1, a handheld gaming device supporting both blockchain-native and traditional games. SuiPlay0X1 is set to be released in early 2025 and will support multiple game stores, including Steam, Epic Games Store, and GOG.com. GameFi has always been a crucial component of Sui’s ecosystem strategy. The Move programming language used by Sui employs an object-oriented architecture, where objects serve as the fundamental unit of data storage, as opposed to using an account model like other blockchains. This enables the creation of more complex and composable on-chain gaming assets on Sui. Moreover, Sui’s scalability and zkLogin functionality provide a gaming experience closer to Web2, positioning GameFi as one of the key focus areas in Sui’s ecosystem in the coming year.

In 2024, Sui further strengthened its position in the DeFi space through technological innovations and ecosystem expansion, enhancing cross-chain asset liquidity and diversifying new financial products such as decentralized lending and synthetic assets. In November, Sui announced partnerships with Babylon Labs, Lombard, and Cubist to integrate Bitcoin into the Sui ecosystem. By utilizing innovative staking protocols and cross-chain technologies, this partnership aims to integrate BTC liquidity into Sui’s DeFi ecosystem. The collaboration will enable Bitcoin holders to stake BTC in Babylon’s staking protocol and mint LBTC through the Sui ecosystem, positioning it as a core asset in Sui’s DeFi ecosystem. This will unlock $1.8 trillion in liquidity from the Bitcoin ecosystem.

With the relaxation of regulatory policies under President Trump’s administration, more cryptocurrency ETFs are expected to be approved in 2025. While there has not yet been any indication of traditional institutions submitting applications for a Sui spot ETF, given Sui’s strong performance this year and its stable ecosystem development, it is not ruled out that institutional applications may arise once regulations are relaxed. An example of such an initiative is Grayscale’s Sui ETF Trust, which serves as an experimental case.

From a tokenomics perspective, SUI faces long-term, sustained inflationary pressure, which will exert significant downward pressure on its price appreciation. Many have compared SUI to the new SOL, but unlike SOL, which has mostly completed its unlock during the current bull run and faces minimal inflationary pressure, the situation with SUI requires continuous monitoring of its token distribution and unlock schedule. If the native token of the public chain faces resistance in breaking through certain price levels, it could create substantial pressure on the long-term development of the ecosystem.

5.Base Ecosystem

Market Performance

Base’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has seen a continuous increase since March, rising from $430 million at the beginning of the year to $3.72 billion, marking an impressive growth of 765.1%. Base is now the leader in TVL among Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, highlighting the rapid development of the network this year. In terms of market enthusiasm, the Base ecosystem has experienced explosive growth this year, fueled by the support of Coinbase and North American capital. For the entire year, Base ranked third in capital inflows, surpassing established projects like Optimism and Solana.

Figure 33：L2 TVL，Data Source：DeFillama

Figure 34: Blockchain Capital Inflows Ranking, Data Source: Artemis

The number of on-chain addresses on the Base platform experienced a significant increase following August 2024. By December 25, the count of addresses escalated from 24.55 million at the beginning of the year to 100 million, signifying a remarkable growth of 307%. An examination of the rise in Total Value Locked (TVL) and on-chain addresses since August reveals that the average funds contributed by newly added users on Base were only $25.60, suggesting that the majority of users are small-scale participants. This trend can be attributed primarily to the appeal of Base’s social features and the Meme culture, which have contributed to Base’s emergence as a prominent trading blockchain and have further stimulated user growth. Moreover, as the number of addresses and transaction volumes increased, Base’s protocol revenue also exhibited substantial growth. By December 25, the cumulative protocol revenue for Base reached $98.3 million, reflecting a 664% increase from $12.86 million at the start of the year.

Figure35: Number of Addresses on Base Blockchain, Data Source: Dune

Figure 36: Base Protocol Revenue, Data Source: Dune

Base 2025 Outlook

In March of this year, Base introduced an artificial intelligence (AI) factory dedicated to the gaming industry and the metaverse, named Virtuals Protocol. This decentralized AI agent production platform facilitates the deployment of various AI agents. By December 26, Virtuals Protocol’s market capitalization for its token had reached $3.1 billion, rapidly positioning itself as the second-largest project within the AI agent sector by market capitalization. As AI continues to gain traction in the market, it is anticipated that related initiatives will garner increased attention in 2025. Nevertheless, many ambitious AI projects have encountered challenges due to the substantial infrastructure requirements and high costs associated with their development, particularly under the influence of Meme coin trends. In contrast, AI agents adeptly integrate AI technology with the Meme narrative, providing direct user experiences through straightforward AI applications, and enabling continuous iteration and product enhancement following successful fundraising efforts. Base’s efficient performance and cost-effectiveness render it an ideal environment for the advancement of AI agents.

Over the past year, Ethereum’s performance has been relatively lackluster, both in price and functionality, rendering it unable to compete effectively with other leading cryptocurrencies. Additionally, its gas fees remain higher than those of most major Layer 1 blockchains. Nonetheless, Ethereum continues to retain its status as the second-largest blockchain by market capitalization, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) representing 55.9% of the overall market — significantly higher than the second-ranked Solana’s figures. Should Ethereum succeed in addressing its performance limitations, a rebound in its value is anticipated. Meanwhile, Base, as a Layer 2 network launched by Coinbase, has demonstrated rapid growth and robust performance since its inception, surpassing several established Layer 2 projects in terms of TVL, user growth, and trading volume. This positions Base as a potential pivotal player in the revitalization of Ethereum.

Base benefits from a compliance advantage as a Layer 2 network introduced by Coinbase. Notably, Coinbase’s contributions during the current U.S. election cycle accounted for 30% of the total cryptocurrency donations, reflecting a significant investment that inherently carries the potential for substantial returns. With regulatory policies expected to relax following the victory of Donald Trump, Base is poised to gain increased recognition from institutions and users regarding compliance and security, thereby fostering the development of its ecosystem.

Figure 37: Blockchain TVL, Data Source: DeFillama

6.Future Potential Projects

In 2024, fundraising activities in the Web3 space revealed significant disparities in the attractiveness of different tracks. Infrastructure led the way with a 37.3% share of total funding, with projects focused on network scalability, performance optimization, and cross-chain interoperability attracting considerable attention. Despite DeFi being a more mature sector, innovative protocols and financial instruments continued to captivate users, securing a 17.3% share of funding in 2024. Trump’s proposal to build Bitcoin reserves and relax regulations has created new opportunities for DeFi to enhance liquidity and optimize returns within a compliant framework. Emerging tracks such as AI/DePIN and Real World Assets (RWA) are beginning to gain traction, with respective funding shares of 10.7% and 4.0%. These sectors are still in their early developmental stages, but they are expected to be key areas of focus for venture capital moving forward. Overall, institutions are paying more attention to infrastructure and mature tracks, while also beginning to pay attention to the potential for technological innovation and cross-track applications.

Figure38：Financing distribution in 2024 (above USD 20 million)，Data Source：Forsight news

Among the web3 projects with extremely large financing amounts, Bitcoin mining companies Riot Platforms and Iris Energy raised the most, securing $559 million and $413 million, respectively. These companies’ substantial funding requirements stem from the high costs of infrastructure and energy, as well as the pressures of global expansion and environmental transformation. The total financing amount for the four mining companies exceeds $1.24 billion. In the category of large-scale financing, the infrastructure sector raised over $980 million, with key projects such as Avalanche, Monad, and Blockstream receiving significant investments focused on scalability and storage optimization. Additionally, decentralized social protocol Farcaster raised $150 million, with Paradigm leading the investment round, a financing scale that is rarely matched in its track.

Figure39：Projects with ultra-large financing amounts，Data Source：Forsight news

Ⅳ、AI+Crypto

The crypto AI sector experienced its first major surge in 2024, primarily driven by two key events. First, the release of OpenAI’s “text-to-video” large model, Sora, marked a significant breakthrough in AI technology. This not only had a profound impact on the industry but also boosted the market interest in related crypto projects, particularly leading to a sharp increase in the price of WLD. This technological advancement injected strong momentum into the crypto AI market, attracting substantial attention from users . Second, in March, NVIDIA’s appearance at its annual AI conference, GTC, further fueled speculation around GPU chips and contributed to the rise of decentralized GPU projects. Decentralized rendering projects, such as Render Network, have quickly become key focal points in the market. During this period, the crypto AI sector began expanding rapidly, covering areas such as decentralized GPUs, AI infrastructure, and AI data platforms. Although the market experienced some adjustment as the initial hype began to wane, the explosive growth in February and March marked the preliminary rise of the crypto AI sector, laying the foundation for further development in the future.

In October 2024, the sector saw another resurgence, driven by the rise of AI Memes and the continued enthusiasm surrounding AI Agents, further boosting the crypto AI ecosystem. Notably, the project token GOAT from Truth Terminal saw a rapid surge in market capitalization following its launch, attracting significant attention from the community and sparking a Meme trend and new narratives. The explosive growth of GOAT, combined with its integration with AI Agents, led the AI Meme segment to quickly surpass a market cap of several billion dollars, establishing it as an independent sub-sector within the broader crypto AI space. Subsequently, after being listed on Binance, ACT experienced significant gains and quickly became a focal point.

According to data from CMC, as of December 30, 2024, the market capitalization of crypto AI reached $50 billion, representing a 160% increase from the beginning of the year. On December 7, the market cap surpassed the $70 billion mark. Subsequently, the market declined due to a correction in the overall market.

Figure40：Market value of AI，Data Source：CoinMarketCap

The present trajectory of AI Agents is beginning to manifest; however, the technology is not yet fully matured. Significant challenges encompass extensive data training demands, high capital expenditure, and the complexities associated with coordinating multiple agents. Consequently, the current application scenarios for AI Agents are somewhat restricted, with the primary use case being the issuance of AI Meme tokens. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that AI Agents epitomize the ultimate developmental pathway within the field of artificial intelligence, and their deployment across various sectors underscores their substantial potential.

By 2025, AI Agents are likely to demonstrate their capabilities across numerous domains, particularly in areas such as Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), prediction markets, quantitative trading, and project implementation. In the context of DAOs, AI Agents enhance decision-making processes by offering data-driven recommendations, thereby facilitating more efficient selection and voting among members, while simultaneously enabling automated governance management that minimizes operational complexities and reduces time costs. A prime example of this is Ai16Z, which utilizes AI Agents to achieve notable success in fundraising and investment management, illustrating the capabilities of AI in decentralized organizations.In prediction markets, users may deploy AI Agents to gather external information and analyze specific events, such as the upcoming 2024 United States presidential election. By leveraging AI Agents, users can evaluate the probabilities of various candidates winning and subsequently place bets on associated platforms, thereby fostering innovation within the realm of prediction markets. Additionally, AI Agents have applications in quantitative trading, where they can formulate and execute strategies tailored to diverse market conditions — such as engaging in arbitrage trading during periods of high volatility or implementing trend-following strategies in trending markets. Some trading platforms have already commenced the deployment of trading bots, thereby highlighting the significant potential of AI Agents within the trading sector.

Lastly, the utilization of AI Agents offers blockchain projects streamlined solutions, which mitigate the intricacies of smart contract programming and market promotion. This allows development teams to concentrate on strategic initiatives while entrusting repetitive and detailed tasks to AI Agents. The emergence of platforms such as Virtual further exemplifies this potential.

Ⅴ、Meme — Attention-Based Value Assets

Market Performance

As the cryptocurrency market matures and the industry landscape evolves, memecoins have rapidly emerged as one of the hottest sectors of 2024, driven by their unique value-capturing models and strong community consensus. Within a few years, meme coins have transformed from being perceived as niche, entertainment-oriented assets to becoming a significant and irreplaceable component of the cryptocurrency market. With a market capitalization surpassing the $100 billion mark, meme coins have demonstrated robust growth potential.

According to data from Artemis Terminal, from the beginning of 2024 until December 23, memecoins outperformed both Bitcoin and gold, achieving an impressive benchmark index performance of 187%. Notably, on December 8, memecoins soared to a remarkable 342% benchmark index performance, significantly surpassing other assets. Analyzing the data trajectory, it is evident that the Memecoin index began in March 2023 and the outbreak occurred in November.

Figure41：Index Benchmark，Data Source：Artemis

According to CoinMarketCap data, as of December 23, 2024, the total market capitalization of memecoins has experienced substantial growth, rising from $22.28 billion at the beginning of the year to $91.07 billion. On December 8, it surpassed the $100 billion mark, reaching $137.06 billion, reflecting a peak increase of 515%. Simultaneously, daily trading volumes also saw a significant surge, climbing from a low of approximately $685 million in early February to a high of $71.91 billion on November 13.

Figure42：The total market cap and trading volume of Meme coins，Data Source：CoinMarketCap

Project Classification

Memecoins, a unique phenomenon in the cryptocurrency market, has evolved in tandem with market cycles, exhibiting a diversified trend. The “Meme Summer” of 2024 marked the peak of this phenomenon, attracting widespread attention from global users. This surge is a concentrated reflection of market sentiment and an important window through which to observe innovation and activity within the crypto market. The rise of meme coins can be attributed to several factors, including the drive of market sentiment, innovative mechanisms, celebrity influence, narrative updates, and technological advancements, all of which contribute to the complex market logic underlying this trend.

Memecoins have gradually evolved from purely entertainment-driven assets into a “barometer” of market sentiment, swiftly tapping into trending events and cultural movements to mirror users’ attitudes and focal points. In some instances, memecoins do not merely reflect current market trends but also lead the direction of new narratives, fueling the emergence of fresh hot topics. As a significant symbol of market activity and innovation, meme coins have progressively attracted attention and discourse from both institutional and individual users. Currently, meme coins in the market are primarily categorized into four major types, each with distinct characteristics and unique market implications.

Event-driven memecoins refer to tokens quickly issued on the crypto blockchain based on trending Web2 events, which gain rapid attention through widespread social media dissemination and public interest. These tokens are highly sensitive to market dynamics and can attract substantial attention and capital inflows within a short period, creating a trading frenzy. However, as the event’s popularity wanes, the focus on the token diminishes swiftly, leading to severe price volatility and potentially significant short-term corrections. This type of token is characterized by prominent Player vs. Player (PVP) phenomena, where intense capital games occur between users, exposing ordinary participants to considerable risk. Additionally, multiple similar tokens may emerge during the same event, further exacerbating market confusion. Representative tokens include FIGHT and BAN.

Web2-based memecoins leverage well-known IPs in the Web2 ecosystem, reshaping them for broader application within the Web3 environment. These IPs typically span fields such as film, gaming, and literature, with a solid fan base and cultural influence. By integrating with new Web3 mechanisms such as NFTs, virtual interactions, and DAO, these tokens extend and enhance their value growth potential, attracting active engagement from fans and communities. Such tokens not only stimulate trading enthusiasm and community activity but also drive the migration of users from Web2 to Web3. Representative projects include Moodeng and Cat.

Culturally driven memecoins, spontaneously created by the crypto community, leverage a unique “insider culture” to strengthen community cohesion. The sense of identity and belonging among members fosters the long-term value of these tokens. Such tokens also demonstrate resilience during market downturns, building strong market influence through innovative dissemination methods and active community engagement. Projects such as BOME, SLERF, and Neiro further validate the potential of this model.

With the advancement of AI technology, AI meme coins have quickly emerged as a new category. These tokens generate IP characters via AI and take the lead in their promotion, achieving automation from design to operation. The introduction of AI technology reduces human intervention, catering to users’ growing discontent with traditional venture capital models. The “No-intervention” approach and innovation associated with AI memecoins have become highlights of the crypto market. Projects like GOAT and ACT showcase the successful integration of AI technology with the meme coin market, opening up new possibilities for the industry.

Pump.fun

Certainly, behind the current Meme market frenzy lies innovation in infrastructure and the support of on-chain bots. These technological advancements provide powerful multi-functional sniper bots, including features such as dollar-cost averaging, limit orders, and pool monitoring, significantly enhancing market trading efficiency and participation. Among these, the most innovative infrastructure is the Pump.fun platform.

Pump.fun is a meme token creation and trading platform built on the Solana blockchain. It aims to simplify the token creation process and lower the technical barriers, allowing anyone to create a token in just a few seconds for a minimal fee of 0.02 SOL. The platform’s easy-to-use interface and low cost make it accessible to anyone, facilitating widespread participation in the Memecoin ecosystem.

Pump.fun offers two core features. The first is its core pricing mechanism, which includes no team allocation, no presale, automated liquidity injection, and a unique bonding curve pricing model. The second is its low-cost and user-friendly operation: users do not need any programming skills or technical background to create and issue their memecoins, simply paying a fee of 0.02 SOL to do so on the platform.

Figure43：Successfully launched projects on Pump.fun，Data Source：Pump.fun

According to data from Dune, as of December 23, 2024, Pump.fun has successfully deployed nearly 5M memecoins since its launch in February, capturing approximately 1.83M SOL in trading volume, making it one of the highest-grossing on-chain projects of 2024.

Figure 44：Pump.fun trading volume，Data Source：Dune

Desci

In November 2024, a significant market narrative emerged following Binance’s investment in the developing sector of Decentralized Science (DeSci), which quickly attracted widespread attention. DeSci utilizes blockchain technology and its associated features — including tokens, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) — to promote a more open, incentivized, and community-driven approach to scientific research and collaboration. The primary objective of DeSci is to decentralize various aspects of the scientific domain, encompassing funding, data sharing, publishing, and collaborative efforts. Its vision aims to enhance transparency and operational efficiency within the scientific community by leveraging blockchain technology, thereby addressing several challenges faced by traditional scientific systems.

At the transactional level, two tokens — RIF and URO — issued by the Pump Science platform have become focal points of market discussion and trading interest. Pump Science serves as a low-barrier research experiment and fundraising platform that enables individuals — including pharmaceutical developers, scientists, and researchers — to submit proposals or drug strategies pertaining to longevity and wellness while raising funds for their experimental endeavors. Participants are also able to place bets on the likelihood of various interventions successfully extending the lifespan of different biological models currently under examination. Presently, two experiments on the platform — RIF and URO — are undergoing testing within fruit fly models, representing an early stage of scientific exploration within the DeSci framework.

Prior to the release of this report, a notable DeSci initiative, Bio Protocol, announced the launch of its token and facilitated listings on several major exchanges, thereby reigniting discourse and expectations surrounding this emerging sector.

Ⅵ、Stablecoins and PayFi

In 2024, the global stablecoin market continued to experience rapid growth, with its total market capitalization surpassing $200 billion, marking a nearly 50% year-on-year increase. The expansion of the stablecoin market is reflected not only in the growth of market cap and trading volumes but also in the accelerated globalization and decentralization of the sector. As the most stable asset class in the cryptocurrency space, stablecoins have demonstrated immense potential in international payments, asset hedging, and cross-border trade.

Figure 45：Stable Coin Market Caps，Data Source：Defillama

With the swift advancement of the market, the utilization of stablecoins has consistently broadened. They have emerged not only as effective instruments for hedging against fluctuations and devaluation of local currencies but also as alternatives to United States dollar bank accounts. These digital assets facilitate corporate payments, cross-border trade settlements, and investments in both financial and tangible assets. In light of escalating global economic uncertainties, the diverse functionalities of stablecoins position them as essential tools for both businesses and individuals to manage risks and optimize asset allocation.

Throughout the past year, the landscape of stablecoin issuance platforms has expanded rapidly, accompanied by significant enhancements in their innovative capabilities. The United States dollar continues to dominate the stablecoin market, with 99% of stablecoins pegged to this currency. USDT and USDC maintain their positions as the preferred options for cross-border payments and asset management, owing to their market recognition and technological backing. Additionally, USDe, introduced by Ethena, distinguishes itself through an innovative model for spot arbitrage utilizing Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. Its market capitalization has reached $6 billion, positioning it among the top four stablecoins by market capitalization. USDe employs a sophisticated Delta hedging strategy, ensuring price stability while providing users with sustained returns, thereby serving as a financial instrument that harmonizes stability with value enhancement. Built upon Ethereum’s secure infrastructure, USDe advantages users by eliminating reliance on traditional banking systems and offering diverse options for daily transactions, savings, and financial planning.

Technological innovation remains the principal driving force behind the growth of the stablecoin market. Progressions in on-chain technology and the widespread adoption of intelligent systems have markedly enhanced the functionality and efficiency of stablecoins, fostering closer integration with decentralized finance (DeFi) while demonstrating substantial flexibility and adaptability. For instance, on-chain payments have significantly reduced transaction costs through disintermediation and expedited transaction times, yielding notable efficiency improvements for users. Blockchain-based cross-border payments can often be completed in less than one hour, whereas traditional bank transfers may extend up to five business days. In terms of costs, the World Bank reports that the average fee for traditional cross-border remittances stands at 6.35%, with certain regions exceeding 7%. Conversely, utilizing high-performance blockchains such as Solana to transfer stablecoins incurs a cost of merely $0.001, thereby drastically lowering the payment barrier.

Amid the global financial transformation, stablecoins are not merely tools; they serve as critical engines propelling financial globalization and strategic advancements. The potential for their future development is substantial. By optimizing user experiences and enhancing interaction efficiency, stablecoins are progressively becoming indispensable for international payments and asset settlements. Acting as vital conduits for capital flow, stablecoins are modernizing the traditional financial system, transforming its operations while infusing new vitality into the global financial infrastructure.

Simultaneously, governments and financial institutions worldwide are intensifying their regulatory frameworks pertaining to stablecoins. This progression offers clearer guidelines for market participants and lays a solid foundation for the healthy evolution of the stablecoin market. In the United States, stablecoin operators are mandated to adhere to financial regulations, encompassing anti-money laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements. As the regulatory environment gradually matures, the stability of the stablecoin market will increase, boosting market confidence and attracting additional users.

The success of stablecoins underscores the immense potential of blockchain technology in practical applications. Ranging from payments to asset management and spanning decentralized finance to traditional financial systems, stablecoins are advancing global finance toward enhanced efficiency and transparency. In the foreseeable future, innovative models such as USDe, combined with the widespread adoption of distributed computing and intelligent technologies, will further diversify the use cases for stablecoins, presenting new solutions for global capital flow and business payments.

Looking forward to 2025, the stablecoin market is projected to achieve new milestones, with its market capitalization anticipated to reach $250 billion. This growth will not only be fueled by the functional advantages of dollar tokenization and the continuous expansion of market demand but also by a global crypto bull market and advancements in U.S. legislation. In the long term, stablecoins are poised to assume an increasingly significant role as a foundational bridge linking decentralized finance with traditional finance, establishing themselves as central components within the global financial ecosystem.

Ⅶ、On-chain applications

1.RWA

In 2024, the Real-World Asset (RWA) market experienced a substantial transformation, establishing a robust foundation for its future development. An increasing number of traditional financial institutions entered the RWA sector during this year, resulting in rapid market expansion and heightened interest from users. As of December 23, the market capitalization of RWAs rose from $8.4 billion at the outset of the year to $14.6 billion, reflecting a remarkable increase of over 60%. This swift growth underscores the escalating trust in blockchain technology and the gradual acceptance of tokenization within traditional finance. Prominent institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have emerged as leaders in the innovation and adoption of tokenized products, particularly in sectors including government bonds, real estate, and private credit, where the benefits of liquidity and transparency are increasingly acknowledged.

As the RWA tokenization market continues to expand at a rapid pace in 2024, anticipations for further growth in 2025 are prevalent. The favorable position of Donald Trump regarding the cryptocurrency market, along with his commitment to a more permissive regulatory framework, is expected to serve as a significant catalyst for this expansion. Traditional financial institutions are likely to enhance their investments in tokenized markets, particularly concerning U.S. Treasury bonds, corporate debt, and real estate assets, where tokenization is anticipated to gain traction. Although Trump has not yet assumed office, the direction of his policy has already engendered strong market expectations. His campaign commitments — including the relaxation of cryptocurrency regulations, the potential dismissal of the SEC chair, and the establishment of a clear regulatory framework — are projected to alleviate overregulation and diminish uncertainty within the cryptocurrency sector.It is noteworthy that legislative advancements related to bills such as the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21) and the Stablecoin Payments Act merit attention. These legislative measures aim to define the legal framework for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, and their enactment would further expedite the adoption of crypto assets in contexts like RWA tokenization.

In conclusion, the anticipation surrounding Trump’s policies is fostering a more favorable regulatory environment for the growth of the RWA tokenization market. While the implementation of these policies remains forthcoming, the market has already responded with increased optimism. In 2025, the RWA tokenization market is projected to evolve within a more robust, transparent, and regulated environment, thereby solidifying its role as a pivotal growth driver within the cryptocurrency industry.

Figure46：RWA Market Caps，Data Source：RWA.xyz

2.DeFi

In 2024, the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector encountered substantial challenges; however, it experienced a notable resurgence following the election of Donald Trump. Although the Total Value Locked (TVL) has not yet returned to its historical peak, it demonstrated consistent growth throughout the year. DeFi’s TVL increased from $54.27 billion at the beginning of the year to $120.97 billion by year-end, reflecting a remarkable rise of 122.9%. The sector continues to integrate with traditional finance, particularly in areas such as lending, derivatives trading, and the stablecoin market. Moreover, decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes experienced an increase, which narrowed the trading volume ratio between DEXs and centralized exchanges (CEXs) from 9.37% to 10.61%, propelled by decentralized stablecoins and derivatives.

Despite prevailing uncertainties regarding global DeFi regulation, the Trump administration’s favorable attitude toward the cryptocurrency industry has enhanced market confidence. Initiatives such as the establishment of Bitcoin strategic reserves, the formulation of a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, and the approval of ETFs have fostered optimistic expectations for the DeFi landscape. Regulatory advancements in the United States may emerge as significant catalysts for the sector’s rejuvenation, facilitating institutional participation and enhancing synergies between off-chain and on-chain capital markets.

The progress of DeFi in 2024 was supported by groundbreaking innovations. AAVE V4 introduced a “unified liquidity layer” along with cross-chain liquidity protocols, significantly improving liquidity and capital efficiency. These developments have reinforced AAVE’s leadership position within the DeFi lending market. Hyperliquid, an emerging entity in the derivatives market, has leveraged efficient market integration and technological advancements to establish itself as a prominent player in 2024. It is anticipated that Hyperliquid will capture a substantial share of the on-chain derivatives market in the forthcoming years.Declining global interest rates have rendered DeFi platforms increasingly appealing, reminiscent of the favorable conditions observed during the cryptocurrency bull markets of 2017 and 2021. The reduction of financing and capital opportunity costs is driving increased capital inflows into the DeFi ecosystem, thus accelerating its expansion.

The year 2025 is expected to serve as a breakout period for DeFi, with technological advancements, supportive policies, and rising market demand acting as key drivers. The sector is poised for a comprehensive revival, solidifying its role as an integral component of the global financial system.

3.DePIN

As of 2024, Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) have emerged as a rapidly expanding segment within the cryptocurrency industry, demonstrating significant market potential in sectors such as energy and telecommunications. The crypto market has experienced a bullish resurgence following the election of Donald Trump, leading to a steady increase in both the market capitalization and popularity of DePIN, which has become a central focus within the market.

As of December 23, there are 295 DePIN projects, with a total market capitalization of approximately $28.84 billion, reflecting a 40.5% increase from $20.52 billion recorded in August. Additionally, funding related to DePIN initiatives has surged by 300% year-over-year, with startups in computation, energy, and data collection attracting over $266 million in investments.

The accelerated advancement of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) is driven by demand across various sectors, including energy, wireless communications, and the Internet of Things (IoT). In 2024, DePIN made considerable progress in real-world applications, establishing multiple strategic market partnerships. Notably, HeliumMobile exceeded 120,000 users, Glow successfully implemented 70 solar power plants, and GEODNET created the world’s largest Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) network. Furthermore, several DePIN projects engaged in collaborations with prominent organizations, including major telecommunications companies, Tesla, and the United States Department of Agriculture. These partnerships have effectively validated the technological potential of DePIN across a range of industries.

Solana has become a leading platform for DePIN projects like Helium and Hivemapper due to its low transaction fees, high throughput, and seamless user experience. Solana’s interoperability with other blockchains also enables easier integration across platforms. The successful launch of Firedancer further enhances Solana’s scalability and performance, solidifying its position as a top choice for DePIN projects.

DePIN is poised to demonstrate robust growth potential in 2025, driven by the global demand for decentralized technologies, particularly in the energy sector. Solar and wind energy, as the most promising clean energy sources, stand to benefit significantly from DePIN technologies in deployment and integration. Key components like virtual power plants and demand response mechanisms will leverage blockchain for real-time data and efficient resource coordination.For instance, DePIN projects incentivize users to install solar panels, distributed batteries, and EV charging stations through token-based reward systems. This capital-intensive model not only reduces the cost of deploying clean energy infrastructure but also accelerates the global energy transition.Beyond energy, DePIN projects are also making steady progress in telecommunications and IoT. Projects like Helium and XNET are leveraging decentralized networks to address coverage challenges in wireless communication, providing 5G and IoT services. These initiatives not only expand network infrastructure but also reduce construction and maintenance costs through token incentives, enabling users to directly participate in network development and operations, thereby creating innovative business models.DePIN offers users new opportunities while introducing groundbreaking solutions for global energy transition and infrastructure development.

4.NFT

Since the conclusion of the NFT golden era in 2022, the market has experienced a prolonged period of stagnation, characterized by a significant decline in trading volumes. Although there was a resurgence in the prices of certain NFTs in 2024, the majority of assets continued to face challenges, indicative of weak market activity.

In 2024, the total market capitalization of NFTs ranged from $15.1 billion to $44.4 billion, representing an improvement relative to the $9.47 billion to $19.7 billion range observed in 2023. Nevertheless, trading volumes remained subdued, with daily volumes fluctuating between $7 million and $110 million in 2024 — substantially lower than the $19 million to $160 million range recorded in the previous year.

Figure 47：NFT Market Data，Data Source：NFTScan

In 2024, Blur emerged as the dominant force in the NFT market, commanding 40.32% of the year’s total trading volume. Opensea followed with a market share of 20.47%. Currently, the NFT trading platform landscape has evolved into a tripartite structure, with Blur, Opensea, and Magic Eden collectively steering the market.

Figure 48: Market contribution of NFT trading platforms，Data Source：NFTScan

By the conclusion of 2024, the NFT market exhibited indications of recovery, largely driven by the token launches of Pudgy Penguins and Magic Eden. Nevertheless, the NFT sector in 2025 continues to confront a multitude of challenges.

Firstly, NFTs will persist in facing competitive pressures from meme coins. Both asset classes function as investment vehicles linked to community and cultural influence; however, meme coins present advantages in terms of superior liquidity and diminished barriers to entry. Without significant advancements or innovations in liquidity or underlying mechanisms, the probability of the NFT market reclaiming its peak valuation observed in 2022 appears limited.

Secondly, the sustained attractiveness of NFTs is subject to question, as their long-term market viability has yet to be substantiated. Although NFTs witnessed dramatic increases in price and trading volume during periods of market expansion, many experienced substantial price volatility during market corrections, primarily due to a scarcity of high-quality assets, the absence of institutional endorsement, and an excessive dependence on community consensus for their valuation. Ensuring ongoing user engagement and maintaining project momentum are critical challenges that the NFT industry must address moving forward.

Risk Disclaimer:

All cryptocurrency investments, including yield-generating products, are highly speculative and involve significant risk. Past performance of products does not guarantee future results. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and before making any investment decisions, you should carefully assess whether trading or holding digital currencies aligns with your personal investment goals, financial situation, and risk tolerance, and seek advice from a professional financial advisor. The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. The author and publisher do not accept any liability for losses incurred as a result of using the information provided in this article.

Risk Warning:

Use of BitMart services is entirely at your own risk. All crypto investments, including earnings, are highly speculative in nature and involve substantial risk of loss. Past, hypothetical, or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The value of digital currencies can go up or down and there can be a substantial risk in buying, selling, holding, or trading digital currencies. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital currencies is suitable for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, and risk tolerance. Investing involves risks, and the content should be approached with caution. BitMart does not provide any investment, legal or tax advice.