@Ev — Interesting and provocative thought. Here is how I think about it.

The swing of the pendulum between open and closed — is driven by tension on either pole, as if there were physics to this — tension in the marketplace for ideas is like gravitational pull. And so long as the nexus of distribution isn’t controlled by either by single company or by law (an internet license like to the radio license) the tension will continue to pull us back and forth. We are living in a liminal time — a time of transition, a time when pretty much every institution is being up ended by technology. On one side of pendulum is this pull of innovation and change (ie: open) — on the other is the pull of scale, conformity, and control — control of experience, design and control of economic value (ie: closed). The pendulum keeps rocking us back and forth. Creative construction and destruction.

Playing the pendulum swing out: something new is created on the pole of innovation and change — it changes up the game, refines how and why we use a device. It then moves over to the pole of scale, control and conformity as it seeks to dominate and monopolize its position. But concurrent with a drive towards control that particular company starts to loose the DNA that made it creative and relevant. Scale, strategy tax and hubris start to eat at the company. So long as distribution and access isnt gated — people leave and the cycle starts again. In the long run you might be correct — but I wonder if the opposite might be true. I wonder if we are entering a phase of technology and cultural change that will stay un settled for a very long time.