Natural forest (left) and an almond orchard (right) (Source: Blend Images and Bee Culture)

Introduction

In recent months there has been quite a buzz about the potential for agriculture to sequester carbon and be our savior in our fight against climate change. To make sense of it all, we went through an exercise of understanding the carbon sequestration potential of almond orchards in California. Our analysis only looks into the carbon sequestration by the tree biomass and the soil, and should not be considered a complete life cycle assessment of growing almonds.

California’s almond industry can sequester anywhere between 1 to ~13 Million Metric Tonnes of CO2 per year or 0.6 to 8 Metric Tonnes…


Emissions, water, and land use are three indicators of agricultural sustainability

Today is Earth Day, and we would like to take this opportunity to emphasize why sustainability in tree nut farming is important by quantifying its potential. Agricultural sustainability can be defined in many different ways. In fact, the agricultural life cycle assessment is one of the most challenging tasks because it touches on all other major sectors. Soil health, chemicals, transportation, water, energy, biodiversity, etc., could all be farm sustainability indicators. However, three key indicators can summarize those metrics. Those indicators are emissions, water, and land use.

Emissions

Tree nut farming in California is currently a net emitter of greenhouse gases…


In our previous Medium post, we provided an overview of Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32) which resulted in the creation of the California Cap-and-Trade Program, Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF), and California Climate Investments (CCI). This article will present you with a real-life example of AB 32 and how it is impacting the food processing industry in the state. We will also discuss how an operation could offset its own emissions at a lower cost than it takes to offset those emissions through current state-run climate investment mechanisms.

What do almonds and tomatoes have in common?

In short, almonds can offset emissions from the processing of tomatoes at…


In our two-part series on farming and food processing, we will discuss how farms and food processors can work together to offset their emissions. The end result will help the state achieve its climate goals while benefiting the food processing industry that the state’s agricultural economy relies on.

Emissions and Assembly Bill 32

Assembly Bill (AB) 32 or the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 was a historic achievement for California. It set ambitious climate targets for the state, including reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. It also led to the development of mandates such as the Renewable Portfolio Standards, Low…


What is hindsight bias, and why does it matter to developing your strategy in any market? In other words, if everyone is making decisions from the same forecast, how will they get an edge by having made a better decision using a better forecast? This tends to perpetuate multiple forecasts in the community for which people base their buying and selling decisions. At Bountiful, we believe that a data-driven approach uses the best available information on hand at the time of decision-making and supports a better decision-making process.

We want to draw attention to a great example illustrating this concept…


In honor of National Nut Day, we’re sharing our 2019 California almond crop performance.

But first, thank you to our almond farmers, who work hard to consistently put food on our table. We’d also like to give thanks for their willingness to work collaboratively with us so we can create innovative tools for the almond industry. Without your collaboration, we couldn’t do what we do.

At Bountiful, the specialty crop industry often inquires about our crop forecasting accuracy, however, we believe the question is not how right you are, but how consistent are your results.

In fact, there is no…


Example of food packaging with an environmental label/message

Recap

In our previous sustainability series (see part1 and part 2), we defined agricultural sustainability and highlighted the importance of agriculture in combating climate change. In this article, we will talk about our vision for increasing consumer awareness regarding the environmental footprint of food and why that is a critical step for making agricultural sustainability a reality.

But first, allow us to do a quick recap of what we talked about in our previous sustainability articles. According to the most recent United Nations’ report, our food system emits 37 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and is the single largest source…


Now that you know why we began almond forecasting, you might be curious, how do we do it?

Our approach is simple — we analyze data.

First, let’s start with things we don’t do:

  • Telephone surveys aka opinions
  • Visit orchards (well, not for forecasting purposes…)
  • Collect almond samples
  • Count nuts (we are nuts, but not THAT nuts)
  • Analysis through classical statistics

You might be thinking — no classical statistics, I thought Bountiful was data-driven…We are, and here’s how:

What we do:


2019 California almond crop yield is trending at 2,146 lbs/acre as per the latest May Almond Industry Position Report.

How did we calculate this? Let’s do the math together:

2,536,456,480 ABC Form 1 receipts

divided by:

Land IQ acreage 1,181,903

The current yield of 2,146 lbs./acre is trending against our July 2019 forecast. The graph below shows the forecasts we put out last year, the USDA Subjective and Objective forecasts, and actual yield reported to-date.


Almonds in the CA central valley, late May 2020

The 2020 almond season has already been one for the history books. Overall excellent growing conditions, great bloom, and lots and lots of nuts on trees!

With that being said, there has been a range of forecasts this year for California state from several sources, with ours being the lowest in that range. In this post, we want to provide some more context to what our expectation is for this year’s crop.

In the first week of April, we released our first forecast to customers.

Bountiful yield forecast: 2,179 lbs/acre

Bountiful bearing acreage estimate: 1,245,730 acres

Bountiful production forecast: 2.71…

Bountiful

Farm, market and buy smarter with actionable forecasting.

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