2021 Almond Crop Forecasting Season and Similarities to Prior Years
As Bountiful provides 4 California almond forecasts during the growing season, the almond industry often asks us how we make sense of all the forecasts and estimates released during the growing season — the USDA NASS Subjective, Objective, and 3rd party industry reports.
While we won’t speak to the 3rd party reports as we aren’t well accustomed to their methodologies, we will discuss the USDA NASS reports and the uncanny similarities between the 2021 Subjective and Objective forecasts and the 2012 crop year.
To put it simply, we’re not experts at counting nuts on trees or studying trees with our eyes to provide forecasts. We are data nerds, and our expertise lies within data science. Through data, we can contribute to the conversation of crop size potential and make sense of the various California almond crop estimates.
For the following analysis, we are using 2,498 pounds per acre for the 2020 crop, as per the latest production number on the June almond position report.
At the start of this rabbit hole, we asked ourselves:
Following the last bumper crop in 2011, what was the growers’ perception of their crop in 2012?
As we weren’t in the industry during that time, the only data point we have that suggests this is the 2012 USDA NASS Subjective Forecast. After all, the forecast is based on telephone surveys!
And in 2012, the Subjective estimate forecasted yield to be “4% down from 2011’s record of 2,670 lbs/acre.”
We all know, 2,670 pounds per acre achieved in 2011 as a record isn’t true once we consider the vast understatement of bearing acreage reported for that period of time. The recalculated yield achieved in 2011 is 2,383 pounds per acre. But the point is, the California almond growers predicted a 4% decline in yield coming off a bumper crop.
So now, let’s revisit the 2021 USDA NASS Subjective Almond Forecast.
“Forecasted yield is 2,410 pounds per acre, 3% lower than the 2020 yield of 2,490 pounds per acre.”
If we look at the 2012 USDA NASS Objective Almond Forecast, it predicted a 0.75% increase in yield over the prior year.
But the actual 2012 yield, the year following a bumper crop, resulted in 2,127 pounds per acre — a 10.71% decline in yield.
The 2021 USDA NASS Objective Almond Forecast predicts a 15.53% decline in yield, similar to other industry forecasts, including Bountiful’s.
Looking at the median yield value for Bountiful’s April forecast, which you can access with a free subscription, we forecast a 14.21% decline in yield over last year. And if you consider the lower and upper bounds, the decline in yield ranges from 12.65% to 15.77%.
The 2011 and 2012 period is the only opportunity in the almond industry’s current history to observe the yield effects following a bumper crop (yield greater than 2,300 pounds per acre). Including bumper crop years 2011 and 2020, California’s almond yield over the last 21 years has been greater than 2,200 pounds per acre four times and greater than 2,300 pounds per acre two times.
However, many factors contribute to growing a bountiful crop, and we must remind ourselves that yield isn’t linear.
The larger decline in forecasted 2021 almond yield compared to 2012 could be attributed to various factors, including drought, limited access to surface and groundwater, and warmer temperatures. At Bountiful, we’ve seen these unique conditions, such as maximum temperature, growing degree days, and NDVI, show up several times throughout the forecasting season as top drivers that have impacted our 2021 crop yield models.
All this to say that the sentiment (Subjective estimates) following bumper crop years, 2011 and 2020, are similar, tracking only a slight decline of 3–4%. Other 2021 crop estimates (Objective and Bountiful’s) track closer to the actual yield decline in 2012, with 2021 forecasting a more significant decline of 12–15% yield.
Despite the numerous factors contributing to yield, we find the similarities between the 2021 crop forecasts and what happened in 2012 worth sharing.
A few questions to leave you with:
Will history repeat itself?
Will we see a decline in yield following a bumper crop over 10%?
Or, will this be a new opportunity for us to learn and grow?
As with any crop forecasting season, all we can do is use the data and information we have available at the time of the forecast to make the best decisions. If we were to, in retrospect, decide we were wrong to make any decision, we would be participating in hindsight bias.
By acting as a third party to provide a yield forecast based on data, Bountiful provides an agnostic number that eliminates sentiment-based bias, gives context to yield, and allows us to forecast multiple times throughout a season. We continue to strive to provide the most accurate forecasts for the industry to facilitate better decision-making across the value chain.
If you’d like to understand the industry’s sentiment on the USDA NASS Subjective and Objective forecasts and Bountiful’s April almond forecast, sign up for a free subscription to the Bountiful platform and check out the Community page.
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