The 2019 growing season has been an interesting one for almonds so far. We’ve seen late precipitation in April and May and have experienced far cooler temperatures than in past years. As such, there are mixed thoughts on what to expect for the almond crop this year. We want to provide context to what we at Vinsight think this years’ almond crop will look like and address the USDA’s objective forecast.
In early April, we released our first statewide almond forecast for 2019 to our customers and partners.
Vinsight yield forecast: 2,170 lbs/acre
Vinsight estimated bearing acres: 1,130,000 acres
Vinsight production forecast: 2,452,100,000 lbs
Since April, we’ve been providing monthly updates to our customers and partners. In light of the USDA’s objective forecast, which surprised us, we wanted to share some contextual information around our models.
Below is a probability distribution for a model we use to understand the bounds of yield for 2019. While this is something we use internally, we decided to make this public. Within the assumptions of the model, our credible interval for yield is between 1,944 and 2,382 pounds per acre. A credible interval is the likely range in which the yield should fall. This credible…
