Let’s Talk 2019 Almond Crop Trends

2019 California almond crop yield is trending at 2,146 lbs/acre as per the latest May Almond Industry Position Report.

How did we calculate this? Let’s do the math together:

2,536,456,480 ABC Form 1 receipts

divided by:

Land IQ acreage 1,181,903

The current yield of 2,146 lbs./acre is trending against our July 2019 forecast. The graph below shows the forecasts we put out last year, the USDA Subjective and Objective forecasts, and actual yield reported to-date.

Now let’s take a look at 2019 performance trends so far.

The purple bars are Bountiful’s 2019 forecasts (April, May, June, & July). Yes, July is very hard to see but it’s there!

The yellow bar is the USDA Subjective Estimate, released in May 2019.

The grey bar is the USDA Objective Estimate, released in July 2019.

Performance values for all estimates are above/below the bars.

To date, the average error for Bountiful’s 2019 almond crop forecasts is 1.65% (we call this mean average percent error aka MAPE).

Update to follow once the 2019 almond crop receipts are final.

Learn more about us at bountiful.ag.

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