San Francisco 49ers 2015 Preview

Jim Harbaugh won at least one playoff game in his first three seasons as the head coach of the 49ers, but things fell apart in San Francisco last year and the 49ers went 8–8. Harbaugh had a fallout with general manager Trent Baalke and owner Jed York, which resulted in his dismissal following the season. It’s very rare that a coach like Harbaugh gets fired after taking a struggling franchise to a yearly Super Bowl contender in just a few years. The 49ers were prepared to make former Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase their next head coach, but Gase turned down an offer because he didn’t want to make Jim Tomsula his defensive coordinator. San Francisco eventually settled with Tomsula, their defensive line coach, as Harbaugh’s replacement. Tomsula reportedly had a tough time filling out his staff, but settled with Geep Chryst as offensive coordinator and Eric Mangini as defensive coordinator. The 49ers lost starting right tackle Anthony Davis, and inside linebackers Chris Borland and Patrick Willis to surprise retirements and lost some key players in free agency.

Offense

The 49ers are going to have a lot of new faces on offense next year after losing running back Frank Gore, wide receivers Michael Crabtree, Stevie Johnson, and Brandon Lloyd, right tackle Anthony Davis, and left guard Mike Iupati. After a breakout campaign in 2012, Colin Kaepernick seems to be getting worse with each season. New coordinator Geep Chryst will be tasked with working with Kaepernick to maximize his talents and limit his shortfalls. In Harbaugh’s first three seasons the 49ers ranked 11th in offense, but last year San Francisco fell to 25th in that category and their offensive struggles have a big part of why things fell apart last year. San Francisco was 30th in passing yards last year and fixing the passing game must happen before the 49ers can be a playoff team again. Chryst was the 49ers redzone playcaller the past four years and he should carry over a lot of similarities from Greg Roman’s and Jim Harbaugh’s offense.

Quarterbacks

Last season Colin Kaepernick struggled to stay on his feet and was sacked 52 times, which was second most in the NFL. Kaepernick is good throwing on the run and he’s good when he’s moving around and last year the 49ers were criticized for trying to keep Kaepernick contained in the pocket, where he had some struggles and he was playing behind a struggling offensive line. New quarterbacks coach Steve Logan has been working with Kaepernick to tweak his throwing motion so he can get the ball out quicker. Kaepernick seems to have all the tools, he has good accuracy and decision making skills, a strong arm and a ton of athleticism, so it will fall on the coaching staff to take advantage of those traits. I think it will be important for the 49ers to put Kaepernick in good situations, where he doesn’t have to convert several third and longs each drive to score a touchdown. I think Kaepernick has the skills to be a good player, because he’s shown it before, but I think we’ve already seen his ceiling. That said, Kaepernick has plenty to work on and he still only has 2.5 seasons of experience on him, so there’s a lot to like. 49ers fans hope that backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert never has to see action. Gabbert, a former first round pick, struggled in Jacksonville and then was traded to the 49ers where he looked pretty bad in the preseason last year. Gabbert has a lot of tools, but he doesn’t make good decisions and he has trouble dealing with pressure and anticipating defenses. Undrafted rookie Dylan Thompson could spend the year on the practice squad as San Francisco’s third quarterback.

Running Backs

The 49ers lost long-time running back Frank Gore to free agency, but they feel comfortable with second year player Carlos Hyde and free agent addition Reggie Bush taking over. Hyde, a second round pick from last year, is a big back who will probably handle most of the carries. Bush will likely have a role on passing downs because he’s very effective as a receiver and has great speed and elusiveness. Hyde is a strong runner who picks up a lot of yards after contact while Bush is a shifty back who’s shown he can be effective taking a larger load. Bush has had some durability issues in his career, so the 49ers will monitor his usage carefully. Before being limited by injuries last season, Bush racked up over 3000 yards in the previous three seasons and he’s shown he can handle over 200 carries in a season. Hyde has a lot of talent, but in two of the three games in which he received more than 10 carries last year, Hyde averaged less than three yards per carry. Kendall Hunter tore his ACL during training camp last year and missed the entire season Hunter has shown that he can be a strong runner, rushing for 1202 yards in three season while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Hunter’s kind of the forgotten man, but if he’s healthy he could surprise a lot of people and earn a big role. The 49ers also drafted South Carolina back Mike Davis in the fourth round and Davis has a really intriguing mix of size and speed. Ex-rugby player Jarryd Hayne will have a hard time making the roster, but could make the team if he wins a returner job. Hayne seems destined for the practice squad. Bruce Miller will compete with 2014 seventh rounder Trey Millard, who missed his rookie season while recovering from an a torn ACL, for the fullback job. San Francisco has decent depth at running back, but one of their backs needs to step up and help replace Frank Gore’s consistent production.

Receivers

After three years in Baltimore in which Anquan Boldin didn’t catch over 1000 yards, he was traded to the 49ers for a late round pick. In San Francisco, Boldin has two straight 1000 yard seasons and he’s been the 49ers top receiver for the past two years. Boldin is abig strong target with good hands, who’s hard to bring down after the catch. Boldin doesn’t have great speed, which is why the 49ers brought in another former Raven receiver, Torrey Smith. Smith isn’t as consistent a receiver as Boldin, but he has great speed that makes him a solid deep threat. Smith quietly caught 11 touchdown passes last year, but he has some below average hands. Smith will be an upgrade over slow-footed Michael Crabtree, who was incredibly ineffective last year. 2013 fourth round pick Quinton Patton is going to take over as the 49ers third receiver, a role that Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson shared last year. Patton hasn’t shown much in limited action and he’ll face competition from second year player Bruce Ellington and veteran Jerome Simpson. Ellington, a fourth round pick last year, has less than ideal size, but has good speed and can make things happen after the catch. Simpson didn’t play last year after facing multiple suspensions and he could still face additional penalties if he makes the 49ers roster. Simpson is a talented player who’s been productive with 700+ receiving yards in 2013 and 2011. Fourth round pick DeAndre Smelter could force Simpson or Patton off the roster if the 49ers choose to keep only five receivers. Smelter is abig target and a good athlete, but he’s still recovering from tearing his ACL in December. Undrafted free agents Dres Anderson and DeAndrew White are players to monitor in the preseason and are solid candidates for the 53-man roster or practice squad. Chuck Jacobs has been with the 49ers since 2013, but he hans’t seen the field and might be running out of opportunities. Tight end Vernon Davis quietly had a horrible 2014 campaign, catching only 26 passes on 46 targets. After catching two touchdowns in week one, Davis went the entire season without a score and he averaged under 10 yards per reception for 245 yards. All of this is following a 2013 season in which Davis caught 52 passes for 850 yards and 13 touchdowns. Davis blamed his lack of production last season on poor game planning. I don’t buy it. Davis had the second lowest catch percentage among tight ends last year and when he did catch the ball he wasn’t picking up many yards after the catch. I think Davis can have a bounce back year, but I don’t think he’ll ever get close to his 2013 production. 2013 second round pick Vance McDonald played pretty well last year as a blocking tight end, before going on injured reserve with a back injury. McDonald is severely limited as a pass catcher and only has ten receptions in 23 games, including eight starts. There have been some reports that McDonald could be on the roster bubble if he can’t improve as a receiver. San Francisco drafted Blake Bell in the fourth round and Bell has a lot of strong physical tools, but is pretty raw at this point. Bell was a quarterback at Oklahoma for his first three seasons and then made the switch to tight end last year and saw limited production in a few starts. Bell is limited as a blocker, but he has the size to develop in that area. He’s a natural catcher and is hard to bring down after the catch, but it’s hard to think that he’ll see much action as a rookie. Derek Carrier is a converted college receiver who has limited upside and may have a hard time making the team after San Francisco drafted two tight ends. Carrier will also have the battle the likes of Garrett Celek, Asante Cleveland, and Xavier Grimble. Celek, Brent Celek’s brother, is a decent blocker with limited experience. The other rookie tight end, Busta Anderson, has great size and speed and may end up being a late round steal. Anderson’s not a strong blocker, but his receiving abilities will be enough to get him a roster spot next year in all likelihood. Asante Cleveland spent last year on the practice squad and may need a strong camp to return to San Francisco. Grimble has the phsyical tools, but has never been able to put it all together. I’m a little worried about the 49ers receiving group. There’s no great upgrade here and San Francisco’s weak passing attack was a big cause of what ended Harbaugh. I’m especially worried about Vernon Davis’ play last year and Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith are both best suited as complementary guys.

Offensive Line

The best news for the 49ers is that they still have two of their starters on the offensive line from their playoff runs — left tackle Joe Staley and right guard Alex Boone. Other than that, there’s not that much good news. Staley’s an elite talent that finished as ProFootballFocus’ fourth ranked offensive tackle last year. Boone’s solid both as a run blocker and in pass protection and was PFF’s fifth ranked right guard in the NFL from weeks 10–17, when he didn’t allow a single sack. Daniel Kilgore was solid at center before breaking his right leg in week seven. Kilgore was replaced by rookie Marcus Martin, who struggled some, but has the tools to potentially develop into a good player. Martin and Kilgore will compete again for the starting center job. Martin was PFF’s 33rd ranked center from weeks 8–17 last year and is expected to return to his reserve role. The 49ers brought in Erik Pears to compete for the starting left guard job, but after Anthony Davis’ surprise retirement, Pears is getting the first shot at taking over at right tackle. Pears really struggled at guard last year after being moved from right tackle, where he started in 2013 and before. In 2013 Pears allowed only four sacks at right tackle, but didn’t offer much as a run defender. If Pears can have a repeat of his play in pass protection in 2013 in 2015, I don’t think San Francisco will care if he’s not great as a run blocker. With Pears at rght tackle, the 49ers have experimented some with moving Alex Boone to left guard and they’ll even consider moving Boone to right tackle if Pears struggles. Brandon Thomas was picked by the 49ers in the third round last year and he missed the entire year with a pre-draft ACL tear, which caused his draft stock to go down. Thomas has all the physical tools to be a strong left guard and is very athletic. Thomas is likely the favorite to start at left guard at this time, but he could also go the right guard if Boone moves positions. Seventh round pick Trenton Brown will compete with Pears for the starting right tackle job. Brown is a massive player who was projected at guard in the NFL and has only limited experience, but has impressed early on. Joe Looney has experience at guard and center and he’ll get a shot at a starting guard spot, but he’s looked bad in limited regular season action and he’ll have to earn a roster spot. Andrew Tiller will also be competing for the guard spot and will probably compete with Looney for a roster spot. Sixth round picm Ian Silberman has experience at right tackle, but the 49ers are keeping him at guard and it seems likely that he’ll make the roster, or at least the practice squad. Dillon Farrell saw some action at guard and center last year as an undrafted rookie because of injuries, and Farell could be a candidate for the practice squad. The 49ers don’t have great depth along the line and there’s some major concerns at left guard and right tackle. This will be a unit to monitor during training camp and the preseason.

Defense

Jim Tomsula hired former Browns and Jets head coach Eric Mangini as his defensive coordinator and Tomsula and Mangini will work together, along with a veteran group of assistants including Jason Tarver, Clancy Pendergast, and Tim Lewis, to help rebuild San Francisco’s defense after the losses of some key veterans. Gone are Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Chris Borland, Perrish Cox, Chris Culliver, Ray McDonald, and Dan Skuta. That said, the 49ers still have a solid core of defenders and should once again be above average. Additionally, it will be interesting to see how responsbilities will be shared between Tomsula, Mangini, and Tarver and the other assistants.

Defensive Line

The 49ers will have a group of players competing for starting defensive end spots including veteran Darnell Dockett, rookie first round pick Arik Armstead, Tank Carradine, Tony Jerod-Eddie, and maybe even nose tackles Glenn Dorsey and Quinton Dial. Thirty four year old Darnell Dockett missed last season after undergoing ACL surgery and is on schedule for training camp. Dockett isn’t an elite player at this point in his career, and likely will play in a rotation with a few others. Armstead was picked 17th overall in the draft based on his great size and power, but he’s a little raw and may take some time before he develops into a solid pro. Jerod-Eddie saw a lot of action as a rotational player last year and had some ups and downs, but isn’t the most talented player in the group. Carradine is a solid pass rusher and he could end up taking on a bigger role, but he might be best suited for a passing down role. Glenn Dorsey is the favorite to start at right end as of today, but Dorsey may also end up as the 49ers starting nose tackle, where he played in 2013 before missing 2014 with injury. Dial has some experience playing nose tackle, but Tomsula thinks he’d be a better end. Dial adds some nice depth because of his versatility. Ian Williams took over at nose tackle last year and was a force against the run and better than most would expect as a pass rusher. Williams will share snaps with Dorsey and Dial at the nose, but the job appears to be his in 2015. Mike Purcell has the versatility to play end or nose tackle, but he’ll have a hard time making the roster as the 49ers have a deep unit here. Purcell along with Kaleb Ramsey, Garrison Smith, and Lawrence Okoye will have a hard time making the 53-man roster. Losing Justin Smith and Ray McDonald is tough, but this unit will benefit from the healthy returns of several players and they might not be a great unit, but they’ll be pretty solid.

Linebackers

Losing Patrick Willis and Chris Borland hurts, but the return of NaVorro Bowman is huge. Bowman was arguably the top inside linebacker in the NFL before he missed the entire 2014 season with a torn ACL. From 2011 to 2013 Bowman had at least 140 tackles and in 2013 he added five sacks and two interception along with four forced fumbles. Michael Wilhoite filled in for Bowman last year and was a nice surprise. Wilhoite’s not a star, and he had his up and downs, but he’s a good enough starter. Wilhoite’s not nearly as effective at stopping the run as Bowman is, but he’s solid in coverage and he’s a tough player. Aldon Smith’s horrible 2014 season resulted in Smith accepting a pay cut, but the 49ers hope that Smith can have a bounce back year in 2015. Smith racked up 14 sacks as a rookie in 2011 and then he added 19.5 sacks in 2012, but he’s fallen off since then. Smith was decent against the run last year, but he wasn’t an effective pass rusher, getting tothe quarterback in only one of seven games in 2014. Although Smith recorded only two sacks last year, he still got a lot of pressures and hurries and PFF ranked him 9th of 47 in 3–4 outside linebackers’ pass rush productivity last year, despite only racking up two sacks. Ahmad Brooks was just the opposite. Brooks isn’t a great pass rusher and he had an up and down year in 2014 and the 49ers will likely give him less of a role, especially as a pass rusher with the emergence of second year player Aaron Lynch. Lynch recorded six sacks in a rotation at outside linebacker last year, but the 49ers didn’t use him much in coverage or on obvious running downs. If Lynch can improve in those areas it won’t be long before he overtakes Brooks. The 49ers also drafted pass rusher Eli Harold in the third round and they hope that Harold can develop into a starting type player. With the off-field and on-field issues surrounding Brooks and Smith, the 49ers decided it was okay to invest in another pass rusher. 2013 third rounder Corey Lemonier struggled as a pass rusher last year and he’ll likely see much less action with the addition of Harold. Depth at inside linebacker isn’t as strong. Nick Moody is the top player off the bench and he didn’t look that great in two starts last year. There was some chatter that the 49ers may bring in a veteran like Lance Briggs to add depth or replace Wilhoite, but Briggs remains unsigned. Moody will be competing with an interesting group that includes Shane Skov, Philip Wheeler, Desmond Bishop, and Nick Bellore. There’s a decent chance Bellore makes the team as a special teams contributor, which means that Shov, Wheeler, and Bishop will be competing for a roster spot. Harold, Lynch, and Smith have the ability to bring a good rush off the edge and Bowman’s return should be a huge lift. San Francisco still has a pretty good group at linebacker.

Defensive Backs

Tramaine Brock emerged as a solid starting cornerback for the 49ers in 2013, but missed most of 2014 with turf toe and a strained hamstring. Brock picked off five passes in 2013 and his return is welcomed after the 49ers lost Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver. Shareece Wright was a liability for the Chargers the past two seasons, but the 49ers like Wright despite only recording two interceptions the past two years and allowing eight touchdowns per PFF. 2014 first round pick Jimmie Ward stepped in right away as the slot corner last year and struggled before missing the rest of the season with a foot injury. Ward’s week one status is still uncertain, but he should be expected by then. Second year player Dontae Johnson filled in nicely last year and has great size and adds good depth for the outside corners. Chris Cook saw a lot of starting action in 2013 with the Vikings, but the former second round pick struggled mightily and ended up in San Francisco last year. Cook is competing for a roster spot, but he has the tools to be a decent player. 2014 fifth round pick Keith Reaser is the top reserve at slot cornerback and may end up opening the season as the starter if Ward isn’t healthy by then. Reaser missed last season while he had two ACL surgeries, but he’s back and healthy for the 49ers. Marcus Cromartie, Leon McFadden, Kenneth Acker, and Mylan Hicks will battle it out for a final spot or two. Antoine Bethea really surprised me last year after he looked like his career was winding down in Indianapolis during the 2013 season. Bethea was a force in coverage last year, picking off four passes and opposing quarterbacks had a 50.2 quarterback rating when throwing at him in coverage last year. Eric Reid is a strong athlete, but the 49ers are hoping that Reid develops into the “next Ed Reed” they though they were getting when they drafted him in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. The 49ers surprisingly drafted Jaquiski Tartt in the second round and Tartt has shown that he’s very physical and also pretty athletic. San Francisco hopes Tartt eventually replace Bethea at strong safety. Craig Dahl is a good special teams contributor and he adds some solid depth, but San Francisco has a crowded safety group and Dahl’s not a lock to make the team. Dahl will have to beat out second year undrafted player L.J. McCray to be depth and special teams help. The 49ers have a decent secondary, but this isn’t the elite group they had a few years ago. This unit had a lot of injuries last year and staying healthy would be a big step in the right direction.

Special Teams

The 49ers surprisingly drafted punter Bradley Pinion in the fifth round, effectively ending Andy Lee’s tenure with the 49ers, despite a long successful career in San Francisco. Lee was traded to the Browns after the draft. Kicker Phil Dawson was still solid last year, but he’s regressed and may only have a few more seasons in him. Kyle Nelson took over as the 49ers long snapper last year and doesn’t have any competition for the job this fall. Bruce Ellington is the favorite to handle the return duties, but newcomers Reggie Bush and Jarryd Hayne might also get a chance at those roles. Nick Bellore, Craig Dahl, and Chris Cook are good kick coverage contributors.

Conclusion

The 49ers are going through a major rebuilding period, but they still have a lot of the same players from their three playoff runs under Jim Harbaugh. This team will have a hard time making the playoffs, especially since they play in the same divison as the Cardinals (with a healthy Carson Palmer) and the Seahawks. Colin Kaepernick’s play last year really held back this team and the talent around him on offense in pretty mediocre. Defensively the 49ers have a string team. Overall San Francisco got unlucky with injuries last year, but the losses they’ve had this offseason will be hard to overcome. I could see the 49ers winning anywhere from 6–9 games next year. Additionally, I don’t envision Colin Kaepernick and Jim Tomsula having many playoff runs in the future.