U.S. Internet Continues to Show Strength Through COVID-19 Stress Test
Last week, I wrote about the surge in Internet traffic we’re seeing as Americans increasingly move their lives online for work, education, entertainment, and health care with COVID-19.
I noted a few top line trends:
- America’s Internet infrastructure is showing strength, speed, and resilience. In fact, our networks are continuing to outpace those in many other countries.
- Internet traffic is not surging significantly above normal “peak hour” levels (ordinarily 9:00 in the evening) as much as it is increasing above the “afternoon lag” we would normally see (due in part to a significant increase in online videoconferencing traffic). So networks have the capacity to meet this new traffic pattern.
- Wireline networks (think, fiber and cable) were seeing a greater increase in traffic (about 25% above ordinary levels) than mobile wireless networks (between 0.7% and 9.2%). Note that wireline networks also have a greater capacity to handle increases in traffic.
- Internet traffic is also shifting from business districts and campuses to suburban and rural communities, which makes sense as more people are now staying home.
One week later, we have another batch of network performance data in. So I wanted to share that new information. I also wanted to draw attention to the network performance dashboards that wireless, wireline, and cable providers all make available, which can help keep the public informed. Those dashboards have a lot of tools, including a state-specific data set. So I encourage you to check those out.
Bottom line: the trend lines I noted last week are holding and America’s Internet infrastructure continues to perform well. There are also signs that the increase in Internet traffic may be leveling off.
Traffic Levels Remain High
No surprises here: data traffic remains high and wireline networks continue to carry a higher percentage of this increased load — though there are signs we may be hitting peak, post-coronavirus traffic levels.
New this week is a deeper set of data from America’s cable providers, which deliver high-speed Internet services to over 72 million households and businesses. That data confirms the trend lines we’ve been seeing.
Downstream traffic on cable networks has increased 20.1% while upstream traffic has increased by a slightly higher 27.7% That upstream uptick likely reflects an increase in those now infamous Zoom video calls and other content (read, cat videos) you’re uploading.
USTelecom’s largest wireline members show increased traffic levels in a similar range and with top line traffic levels that are consistent with last week’s data. One change to note, however: This week’s mean traffic increase of 20.5% is about 5% less than we saw last week. “In other words,” USTelecom states, “traffic seems to have largely held steady or declined slightly from last week, even if it remains significantly higher than pre-crisis levels.”
Comcast similarly states: “Our network traffic is beginning to plateau in early COVID-19 markets. Network traffic increases in the first cities that issued stay-at-home orders such as Seattle and San Francisco are beginning to plateau.”
Looking at global online traffic levels, Nokia sees a similar trend line: “Generally, we see ‘flattening’ of traffic curves — as opposed to spikes initially seen after lockdowns — due to continued and high traffic levels during the business hours (mostly driven by conferencing applications).” Check out their post for more data on traffic patterns around the world.
On the mobile wireless side in the U.S., traffic levels remain consistent with last week, though we do see a slight uptick. This week’s data shows increased traffic levels ranging from 2.1% at the low end to 11.9% at the high end (compared with 0.7% and 9.2% last week).
The Big Shift is Holding
Last week, I noted that traffic patterns were shifting more than they were spiking above normal “peak hour” (9:00 in the evening) traffic levels, and I explained that this is part of why we have enough capacity to handle this new traffic pattern. With even more network data in this week, it is clear that the “afternoon lag” in network traffic that we saw during ordinary days appears to be solidly in the pre-coronavirus past.
We see a good example of this in data provided by Comcast. It shows that “peak hour” for downloading data on their network now hits earlier in evening (shifting from 9:00 PM to 7:30 PM). Though the more significant trend line is on the upload side, which no longer hits at 9:00 PM but instead has shifted dramatically and now extends from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM. This big shift is driven in part by a 212% increase in VoIP and Video Conferencing.
America’s Internet Networks Continue to Perform Well
As in last week’s update, the team over at KASPR DataHaus, which measures changes in “Internet pressure” around the globe, continues to show networks in the U.S. outperforming those in many other countries — and by significant margins in many cases.
There’s no doubt that the sudden spike and shift in Internet traffic has put America’s Internet infrastructure through an unprecedented stress test. And the data show that this increase in traffic has not outpaced the network’s ability to respond. This has led to a largely seamless experience for Americans.
Indeed, President Obama’s former FCC Chairman, Tom Wheeler, wrote this week that the Internet in the U.S. is working “brilliantly.”
America’s Internet networks are holding up because of the massive levels of investment that providers have poured into their networks over the past few years and the expertise of the engineers and techs that maintain, build, and adjust these networks.
So I want to close by offering a big Thank You to the engineers and techs that are keeping America’s Internet and our online lives humming. Many of them are away from their homes and families as you read this; they’re showing up, gearing up, and getting the job done even in these tough times.
