How Carmelo Anthony Fits in the Rockets’ Offseason
After losing two key defenders, the Houston Rockets are poised to add Anthony to their roster. Will he be able to fit in and have a positive impact?
It’s definitely been an interesting off-season for the Houston Rockets so far. They lost Trevor Ariza to the Phoenix Suns and Luc Mbah a Moute to the Los Angeles Clippers. While these names don’t necessarily jump off the page, they were two players that played key roles in turning around the Rockets’ defense, as the team went from 18th in terms of defensive efficiency in the 2016–2017 season (106.4 rating) to 6th best this previous season at a rating of 103.7. Houston fans are hoping that those losses will be resolved with the possible addition of Carmelo Anthony, who is waiting to be released from the Oklahoma City Thunder due to his contract as well as OKC’s massive payroll. Ariza and Mbah a Moute represented Houston’s depth at small (and sometimes power) forward, and their combined absence would allow Anthony to resume his natural position despite playing as a hybrid power forward last season with the Oklahoma City Thunder. But will the addition of Carmelo Anthony impact the Rockets the right way? Let’s first look at the fallen dominoes that could lead to Anthony joining the Rockets.
Losing Luc Mbah a Moute
Mbah a Moute was not a starter, but when he was on the floor he spent 68 percent of his time at power forward where his offensive contributions were not extraordinarily significant. He finished the season with an Offensive Rating of 106 and offered .7 Offensive Win Shares, averaging 7.5 points per game. Half of his shot attempts were from long range, and when he shot from inside the arc, 40 percent of them came from within three feet. I could continue painting the picture of his offensive contributions, but we already know that it was not his primary focus. His primary focus was on the other end, where he averaged 1.2 steals per game, posting a Defensive Rating of 106 and 2.1 Defensive Win Shares. These numbers, along with his length and mobility are what made him the team’s second best two-way wing player behind Ariza. Losing him not only depletes the bench’s depth, but it depletes Houston’s roster of all of its lock-down defenders. Ariza and Mbah a Moute represented Houston’s best chances at shutting down the opponent’s best wings — LeBron James, Kevin Durant, DeMar DeRozan, Giannis Antetokounmpo etc.
Mbah a Moute will re-join the Clippers, the organization he played for from 2015–2017 and his addition alone may make the Clippers one of the best defensive teams in the League. The Clippers will now bolster a roster that includes Mbah a Moute, Avery Bradley (2013 NBA All-Defensive Second Team and 2016 NBA All-Defensive First Team) and Patrick Beverley (2014 NBA All-Defensive Second Team and 2017 NBA All-Defensive First Team). They may still struggle in the always-competitive Western Conference, and Mbah a Moute will likely come off the bench behind either Tobias Harris or Danillo Gallinari, but there is no doubt that the Clippers got the better end of the deal here.
Trevor Ariza Heading to Phoenix
The Phoenix Suns have quite the stockpile of young assets. Devon Booker recently signed his extension for five-years and $158 million, and they are surrounding him with №1 pick DeAndre Ayton, №10 overall pick Mikal Bridges, 2017’s №4 pick Josh Jackson, as well as Brandon Knight and now Ariza. Ariza will join an ever-expanding collection of small forwards, and may have to battle it out for starting superiority over TJ Warren.
Besides Ariza’s veteran presence — and NBA Championship ring — though, he also brings a defensive focus that Phoenix could definitely take advantage of. In Houston, Ariza touted a usage rate of 14.4 percent while on the floor and knew his role. Offensively he spent 81 percent of his time at the small forward position where he recorded a 71 percent 3-point attempt rate and knocked down 37 percent of those attempts. He operated as a sort of invisible man on offense, providing the safety valve for Harden and Paul to defer too if they were smothered on defense or drawing double coverage.
Ariza is often described as a Swiss army knife type player in his ability to do a little bit of everything and on the offensive end that also meant stretching the defense with his ability to shoot from long range as well as his knack to find the open man on the perimeter. Quick to make the pass, he often watches the defense around him and knows when he can make the right pass (see below). His importance — and effectiveness — show in his 2.6 Offensive Win Shares his season-end Offensive Rating of 114.
Defense is what made Ariza Houston’s best two-way wing player. Much like Shawn Marion was to Phoenix, Ariza is to Houston; a floater who can be relied upon to cover all positions and do all things on both ends of the floor. Former Rockets forward Montrezl Harrell said it best some time ago, “He comes in every night and guards positions 1 though 5. I mean that literally. I’ve seen Trevor guarding Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.” That’s because Ariza is adept at switching defenders. His 6'8 frame — not to mention his 7'2 wingspan — makes him perfect for switches off the pick-and-roll and an effective lane-jumper who can always disrupt passing lanes and cause turnovers (see below).
He finished 20th in the league in steals per game (1.5) with Paul finishing 11th (1.7 spg) and harden finishing 7th (1.8 spg). These all culminated in his Defensive Rating of 107 and contributing 2.8 in Defensive Win Shares. Ariza often drew the offense’s best players, and was a big reason as to why the Rockets made it as far as they did in the Playoffs, and if the Rockets didn’t shoot 7–44 from range in Game 7, maybe we would be looking at a different NBA Champion.
The success that Ariza had in Houston doesn’t guarantee him a starting spot in Phoenix, as Warren is no scrub. Warren was more integral to the offense, finishing the season with a 24.9 percent usage rating and averaging 19.6 points and 5.1 rebounds a game. Unlike Ariza, whom, as mentioned above, took 71 percent of his field goal attempts beyond the arc, Warren was much more interior focused. The majority of his field goal attempts were not from deep, as they only accounted for 22 percent of his overall field goal attempts. Instead, the majority of his attempts were either within three feet (37 percent) or between 10 and 16 feet (19 percent).
In other words, while Warren spent 87 percent of his time at the small forward position, he was not relied upon to shoot the long ball like Ariza was in Houston. Instead, the 24-year old relied on his off-ball movement to get his scoring opportunities. He made it work for him, as he was one of only seven total players to rank in the top 30 in both points per game (19.7) and field goal percentage (50.5).
Ariza was Houston’s best wing player, and Warren is Phoenix’s best wing player — and possibly second best overall player behind Booker. So who gets moved? There have been rumors that Warren may be moved, but the more likely option is that he may be relegated to a sixth-man role in favor of Ariza or the ever-improving Josh Jackson. If that’s the case then we can expect him to be a frontrunner for the NBA Sixth Man on the Year Award. I think Phoenix made out like bandits with signing Ariza, and much like watching Mbah a Moute leave, Houston now finds itself down it’s two most vital wing players.
Enter Carmelo Anthony… Maybe
Coupled with a $310 million payroll, the luxury tax attached to it, Anthony’s contract and his reduced role within the Thunder organization, the Thunder have made it clear that they will look to part ways with the 10-time All-Star this summer. They made steps towards that when it was announced that the organization allowed Anthony to meet with other teams, Houston being on the top of that list. The Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers have been reported to have shown interest as well. If we rewind the clock though we will remember that Anthony didn’t gel too well with Houston’s head coach Mike D’Antoni while they were both in New York, so would a reunion be the best for either party?
Carmelo’s best value has always been as a shot-creator…for himself (see above). He thrives on isolation ball and has a quick pull-up jumper that can be lethal from anywhere on the floor. His best fit in Houston though, might come with him playing the same role he did in Oklahoma City, at the four spot. In OKC he made defenses pay by his forgotten-man type of play. Defenses were so caught up in defending Russell Westbrook, Paul George and the interior threat of Steven Adams that they often left Anthony open anywhere surrounding the 3-point line.
We know that Houston likes to run the pick-and-roll with either Chris Paul and Clint Capela or with James Harden and Capela and this works to Anthony’s advantage.
Above is the rudimentary graphic of the standard NBA pick-and-roll. In this scenario we can picture Paul as the 1, Harden the 2, PJ Tucker the 3, Anthony the 4 and Capela the 5. It’s the classic inside-out offense. If Capela sets the screen on Paul let’s assume he dumps in down to him in the paint; the defense — already lagging because of the screen — is now tailing him, which forces Anthony’s man to provide the help-defense, allowing Anthony to pop out to the wing spot, or as is more appropriate for Anthony, the corner spot for the open look. If Anthony’s man doesn’t help? An easy bucket or foul for Capela.
This worked time-after-time for the Rockets — except for the Western Conference Finals of course — because their starting five were all good three-point shooters. Paul (38%), Harden (37%), Ariza (36%) and Tucker (37%) all forced defenses to play honestly or risk a barrage from deep that D’Antoni loves to unleash at any moment possible.
If we examine the same play with the idea that Anthony sets the screen for Harden, then both players become equal threats to shoot or drive the ball depending on how the defense plays them. Both are adept at pick-and-pop style of shots and don’t need a lot of space to get their looks, and both are equally adept at drawing contact in the lane if they so choose. If Anthony can deal with being the third fiddle in this offense — and there is no reason to believe he can’t seeing as that’s exactly what he did in OKC — then he — and the Rockets as a whole — will flourish from the above average point guard and center play.
If Anthony can’t handle that option, then he may still be in luck, as the duo of Harden and Paul only shared the floor for 19.8 minutes a game last season, with D’Antoni opting to split the pair so that “a Hall of Fame point guard [would] be on the floor for 48 minutes.” If Anthony has a problem with having the ball go to Harden as the primary scorer, then D’Antoni can play him with Paul and let the duo who excel at catch-and-shoot opportunities thrive. This rotational idea would not only exhaust defenses, but could ramp up scoring even more so then it already was (Houston was second in the league in points per game with 112.4 per game).
Spoiler alert though, this is not the first time D’Antoni has employed this type of offense, he had the same looks in Phoenix where his shooters prospered off of the stellar play from Steve Nash and Amar’e Stoudemire with Marion — who I mentioned above — acting as the movable piece in the offense. Anthony can be that. He can be the movable piece that rotates from the three to the four depending on the offenses needs. It worked pretty well for Phoenix — although not well enough, as they never made it to the NBA Finals let alone win a Championship — but Marion was the unsung hero of their 2005–2006 run in the Playoffs, Anthony can do the same. Point is, it’s easy to see how Anthony can positively affect Houston’s offense. And isn’t that the end goal for the Rockets?
Despite LeBron James going to the Los Angeles Lakers, it’s still a two-horse race in the West between Golden State and Houston. For all of Anthony’s flaws (feuds with D’Antoni in his time in New York, a ball stopping black hole on offense and an overall decrease in offensive production) he adds a significant upgrade in the scoring category.
If we focus on the offensive stats, we can see how Anthony will impact the team. He averaged 16.2 points per game last season — while only using 23 percent of the teams plays. When the ball hit him, 40 percent of his looks were from deep — where he shot 36 percent — while 57 percent of his two-point field-goals attempts came from within three feet. His next best percentage came from a distance of between three and 10 feet where he shot 33 percent. So he can shoot, we know that. What we don’t know are the questions surrounding Anthony, and those questions are two-fold, the first is what position he will play. He spent 90 percent of last season at power forward, the only other times he played more at power forward than small forward was when he was in New York in the 2012 and the 2013 seasons where he was under the tutelage of none other than D’Antoni (and then Mike Woodson once D’Antoni left). For his career he has spent 76 percent of his time at small forward, so where will D’Antoni place him?
The second question is where he ranks in the offensive hierarchy. We know that Harden is the first option and Chris Paul is the second, but where does Anthony fit in regards to Capela and 2017’s Sixth Man of the Year Eric Gordon? Anthony certainly represents a better offensive option over the likes of PJ Tucker, Gerald Green and new additions Michael Carter-Williams and James Ennis, but that doesn’t indicate where he will fall in D’Antoni’s offensive schemes.
Defensively
This is where the true problem lies for Houston. How do you replace two lockdown defenders with a player who can easily be described as passive, even non-committal, when it comes to defense? D’Antoni always got a bad rap from his days in Phoenix and his seemingly negligent attitude towards defense, and the same could be said about his time in New York, but he has flipped the script in Houston so far. There is no question that Anthony throws those plans into disarray. Anthony has long been known to be a liability on defense. So how do you solve that? Sure James Ennis can replace some of the athleticism and length that Mbah a Moute and Ariza offered, but would they honestly rely on him to cover the opponent’s stars? Most likely not.
The knock against Anthony has always boiled down to two things; effort and quickness. While he has the versatility to play the three or four, he usually lacks the quickness to stay with the elite wing players like LeBron, Durant etc. The problem is, as he gets older, his quickness will only diminish. The second problem revolves around his effort — or lack thereof. Throughout Anthony’s career we have seen the good, the bad and the unmotivated from him. When he was with the Knicks during their 37, 17, 32 and 31 win campaigns he was clearly not enthused enough on the defensive end. His focus was on offense where he had to carry the load night in and night out. When he did show signs of life it was because the offense clicked and the team was winning.
While those showings were few and far between, they offered effective glimpses into the type of defender he could be. Maybe joining a winning team, as well as one that is a consistent Playoff threat will be the push he needs to dial it in when it comes to his greatest weakness. D’Antoni, Woodson and even George Karl never truly emphasized defense, instead focusing on his offensive strengths. This version of D’Antoni is different, and he has shown that he demands full commitment on defense. With that type of mentality coming from the coach, Anthony may be able to show his capabilities as a two-way player. If he fails, then Rocket fans can at least take solace in the fact that he has been known to step-up when the game is close. Small steps right?
So where does this leave the Rockets? As of right now it leaves them down their two best wing players, a still-bitter taste in their mouths from a true disaster of a Game 7, and the addition of two average players in the hopes they will compensate for their loses. Anthony may be on the horizon for H-Town, but right now it’s still only a possibility. If he does land in Houston, the fit may not be impeccable, their may be some growing pains — in fact they should be expected — and the egos of two iso-heavy players may collide, but the end product should bring them even closer to dethroning the defending champions, and in a stacked Western Conference, isn’t that all they can ask for?
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
