Brexit leaves British politics on a knife-edge

Britain voted to leave the European Union on June 23rd in what was arguably the biggest political decision of this generation. However, the immediate impact of the Brexit vote has thrown British politics into total disarray, and nobody appears quite sure what happens next.

For starters, within three days of the vote, Her Majesty’s Opposition look to be disintegrating rapidly. The election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the party was, in hindsight, an ideologically based decision with not even a hint of pragmatism involved — Corbyn is simply unelectable; it is my firm belief that if he does not step down quickly he will be confining Labour to political insignificance in the coming years, which in turn will give rise to far right politics as we have already seen across Europe — most notably, Marine La Pen’s successes as leader of the French National Front. Perhaps more damaging is the ever-increasing rift that he has caused within the party itself, as the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) are at odds with the membership basis that voted Corbyn in. Corbyn may even end up costing Labour previously safe seats, as UKIP target the vote of the working classes. He is, therefore, a serious threat to not just Labour as a party but to its MPs.

Even more significant is that Corbyn’s presence has divided not just the party but also the shadow cabinet, as there have been eight resignations from the shadow cabinet after Corbyn sacked Hilary Benn.

The list of resigned shadow cabinet members is as follows, at the time of writing:

• Heidi Alexander, Shadow Secretary of State for Health
• Ian Murray, SSoS for Scotland
• Gloria de Piero, SSoS for Young People and Voter Registration
• Lillian Greenwood, SSoS for Transport
• Lucy Powell, SSoS for Education
• Kerry McCarthy, SSos for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
• Seema Malhotra, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury

Corbyn, even for a young person supporting Labour, is not the right person to lead. He is unable to exert any influence over his shadow cabinet, he was weak and ineffectual in the referendum campaign and he is unable to convince the liberal voters that Labour needs if it is to win a General Election to vote for him. Corbyn is an old style of politician in a modern era; he is sending Labour into what Andy Burnham today called ‘civil war’ at a time when the Government themselves are extremely divided. It’s almost painfully obvious that a respectable opposition but would stand a very good chance of usurping the Conservatives should a general election be called soon — but this opposition simply isn’t.

Onto the Tories themselves then, a party that’s so divided over the issue of Europe that it’s easy to forget that they’re actually in government. Furthermore, it is now a party whose leadership has been branded a poisoned chalice by many — and this is as a direct result of the man who has lead them them in a resurgence to the political fore, David Cameron. A comment on The Guardian that has been bandied about on social media attributes the imminent downfall of whoever leads the Tories after Cameron to the current Prime Minister, who resigned on the morning of the 24th June.

The comment reads: “If [they] run for leadership of the party, and then fail to follow through on triggering Article 50, then they are finished. If they do not run and effectively abandons the field, then they are finished. If they run, win and pull the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over — Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession … broken trade agreements. Then they are also finished.”

It is an interesting take on the events. The likes of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are the front-runners to take over from Cameron — it looks unlikely that a smaller name would take over, given the level of attention on the referendum, and also because Cameron’s position became untenable as a result of it. The path forward for the Conservatives therefore is unclear — if one agrees with the comment, then a eurosceptic Prime Minister is doomed to fail, whereas a europhile would not be able to rely on their party, or their cabinet — even if a pro-EU PM was to take over, the high profile ministers like Johnson and Gove would still be almost certain to keep their jobs, lending weight to the idea that the establishment for until the next general election — whenever that may be — will be a ‘caretaker’ government, ie one unlikely to pass any major legislation at all. This could, in turn, lead to the breakdown of the two party system as we know it — it would not be unrealistic to think that in the not-too-distant future, the more liberal wing of Labour and the eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party could both split from the main party, and form organisations of their own.

With both main parties in disarray, and divided over Britain’s membership of Europe, British politics appears to be on the end of a very finely balanced knife that could be about to tip either way.