First Ballot “Lock”
Bob Feller and Jackie Robinson get elected 1st ballot in 1962, the previous 1st ballot inductees by the BBWAA were the initial class, so limiting things to players who finished their careers in 1956 or later. Youngest baseball age (Age on June 30th of that season) to reach 50 WAR, pitching only WAR for pitchers and first ballot voting percentage.
Note about Age 22: Bob Feller 37.3 WAR but only pitches 72 innings in the next 4 years, Feller turns 23 after the season. Mike Trout turns 23 during the 2014 season and “only” has 28.6 WAR at the end of the season.
Age 25: Mickey Mantle 88.2, Mike Trout ?
Age 26: Alex Rodriguez ?
Age 27: Ken Griffey Jr 99.3, Hank Aaron 97.8, Rickey Henderson 94.8, Willie Mays 94.7, Frank Robinson 89.2, Barry Bonds 36.2, Eddie Mathews 32.3, Bert Blyleven 17.5, Albert Pujols ?
Age 28: Tom Seaver 98.8, Cal Ripken 98.5, Johnny Bench 96.4, Bob Feller 93.8, Ted Williams 93.4, Stan Musial 93.2, Pedro Martinez 91.1, Al Kaline 88.3, Robin Yount 77.5, Robin Roberts 56.1, Roger Clemens 37.6, Ron Santo 3.9, Andruw Jones ?, Clayton Kershaw ?
Age 29: George Brett 98.2, Greg Maddux 97.2, Mike Schmidt 96.5, Carl Yastrzemski 94.6, Ernie Banks 83.8, Don Drysdale 21.0, Duke Snider 17.0
Age 30: Reggie Jackson 93.6, Wade Boggs 91.9, Sandy Koufax 86.9, Frank Thomas 83.7, Joe Morgan 81.8, Ivan Rodriguez 76.0, Gary Carter 42.3, Alan Trammell 15.7, Dick Allen 3.7, Richie Ashburn 2.1, Bret Saberhagen 1.3, Miguel Cabrera ?, Felix Hernandez ?, CC Sabathia ?
Not inducted on first ballot and reached 50 WAR before Age 30 season.
PEDs are a major factor: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and most likely Alex Rodriguez.
Eddie Mathews: Turns 28 after the 1959 season at which point he has two 2nd place MVP finishes to Roy Campanella and Ernie Banks and 53.5 WAR. 42.9 WAR the rest of his career but best MVP finish is 10th and only 1 in 3 voters picks him on the first ballot.
By standards at the time: .281 BA, 222 HR, 586 RBI and one 2nd place MVP finish when he turns 26 vs Mike Trout: .309 BA, 191 HR, 549 RBI and is Top 2 in MVP at least 5 times. Mathews: 281/388/556, 154 OPS+ vs Trout: 309/410/569, 173 OPS+.
At the time of his election Mathews has a solid claim to being the best 3rd baseman in history, if Mike Trout retires tomorrow to pursue a career in weather no amount of “could have been” is going to rank him as the best center fielder in history. Mathews is Top 10 in MLB WAR nine times but never higher than 4th. Trout is 1st three times, 2nd and 3rd in MLB WAR.
Bert Blyleven: Has 44.0 pitching WAR when he turns 26, the next day he allows 1 run in 10 innings as the Opening Day starter. At 26.5 years old Bert had 49.7 pitching WAR and Mike Trout will most likely be mid 50s in WAR. In Blyleven’s Age 22 season he finishes 2nd in MLB WAR to Tom Seaver, 7th in Cy Young and 26th in MVP and finishes 6th in MLB WAR in his Age 23 season but doesn’t get another Cy or MVP vote until his Age 33 season.
The rest of Blyleven’s career is 6th in WAR two more times, two 3rd and a 4th in Cy Young and 13th place in MVP. Doubling down on the lack of recognition during his career only 1 in 6 voters pick him on the first ballot. If you split Blyleven in two you get two decent HoF candidates, only pitching for WAR:
Bert 1970–1977: 2143.2 IP, 49.7 WAR, 134 ERA+ vs Johan Santana: 2025.2 IP, 50.7 WAR, 136 ERA+
Bert 1978–1992: 2826.1 IP, 46.8 WAR, 109 ERA+ vs Steve Rogers: 2837.2 IP, 45.4 WAR, 116 ERA+
Robin Roberts: Turns 29 at the end of the 1955 season, the Cy Young award doesn’t exist yet and Roberts goes 2nd, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st among NL pitchers in 1950–1955 MVP voting. It’s certainly a similar to Trout’s MVP rank among all AL players to date; among all NL players Robin is 7th, 13th, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 5th in MVP. 1950–1954 Roberts is 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd in MLB WAR and then 7th in 1958.
Roberts is 23rd in MVP in 1956 but that’s his last MVP vote and he never receives a Cy vote. 1956–1966 is 2377.2 IP, 29.8 WAR, 99 ERA+ and apparently enough for nearly half the voters to forget or never consider Robin Roberts a Hall of Fame caliber player.
Ron Santo: Struggles in his Age 22 season .227 BA, 74 OPS+, -0.2 WAR or pretty much any other stat you want to use which knocks him back in the race to 50 WAR. But 1963–1968: 292/379/504, 147 OPS+, 48.3 WAR vs Mike Trout 2012–Aug 7, 2017: 312/414/576, 176 OPS+, 52.6 WAR. Santo is 2nd in MLB WAR to Carl Yastrzemski and Willie Mays along 4th, 9th and out of the Top 10 twice. Trout is 1st three times, 2nd, 3rd and currently out of the Top 10. Santo gets 5 Gold Gloves but 4th, 8th twice, 12th, 18th and 24th in MVP. Trout gets at least 5 Silver Sluggers and finishes Top 2 in MVP at least 5 times.
Santo has another half dozen high quality seasons, 72 WAR with Cubs (-1.6 with White Sox) and 1 in 25 voters places a check mark next to his name. Mike Trout has been better and certainly has a lot more hardware but he needs over 19x as much support as Santo to be elected on the first ballot. You’re certainly entitled to believe that things have improved at the BBWAA in the last 50 years but 19x is still a big jump.
Don Drysdale: 5th and 7th in MLB WAR in his entire career. Won a Cy Young, 4th most MVP votes for an NL pitcher the only time he got MVP votes before the Cy Young existed. Two 5th, 19th and 21st in MVP in his career. His best hitting season 300/331/508 in 138 PA helped him get one of those 5th place MVP finishes.
Drysdale’s Hall of Fame case largely seems to be 1000 more innings than his teammate Koufax and won a Cy Young. I don’t think Mike Trout is going to rely on a halo effect of being Albert Pujols’ teammate.
Duke Snider: somewhat of a slow start, turns 22 late in the 1948 season at which point his career is less than 100 games of being mediocre at best. Duke can only do a reasonable job of hanging with Mike for 4 seasons. Duke 1953–1956: 320/415/626, 165 OPS+, 33.8 WAR. Trout 2013–2016: 306/413/565, 174 OPS+, 37.1 WAR (or 2012–2015 but that’s “only” one MVP).
Snider is 3rd in MLB WAR each of those years and isn’t in the Top 10 the rest of his career, finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 10th in MVP. Trout is 1st, 1st, 2nd and 3rd in MLB WAR and 1st, 1st, 2nd and 2nd in MVP. Duke retires 10th in career HR and was 14th when his name first appears on the Hall of Fame ballot and around 1 in 6 voters place a check mark next to his name.
If Trout substantially declines today and retires in 3 years with something like 300 HR and 1500 Hits (191 and 1001 currently) and he needs 4.5 times as many votes to be elected first ballot as Duke Snider 407 HR and 2116 Hits. You can certainly look at Vladimir Guerrero 449 HR, 2590 Hits, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 6th in MVP, 9th and 10th in MLB WAR and 71.7% first ballot as an indication that Snider’s peak would have been more appreciated by the current BBWAA electorate.
I think Trout is a lock for first ballot Hall of Fame absent PEDs or gambling if he has already played his last game. Have him pinch run once each September until 2020 if the BBWAA is going to take a hard line stance on 10 years and Mike is still alive.
If Mike Trout declines rapidly and appears on a ballot in 2030 it’s less of a sure thing. Carlton Fisk wasn’t a sure thing in 1999 (or any catcher other than Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez), neither Juan Marichal or Harmon Killebrew was a sure thing in 1981. Maybe the BBWAA “should” elect Trout on the first ballot even after he wrecks both knees trying to slide feet first in 2017 and is mediocre at best the rest of his career but the BBWAA doesn’t have any kind of history of doing what it “should”.