Bryan
Bryan
Jul 23, 2017 · 1 min read

Using fangraphs numbers for 4.15 runs per game environment (technically 8.3 runs per game) http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/re24/ Mike Schmidt or any announcer can make the following accurate statement:

  • Kiss that ball and the high probability of more runs scoring this half inning goodbye. With 1 out and nobody on teams only average about one quarter of a run, the HR is likely the final scoring play of the half inning.

The announcer is far more likely to use the colloquial expression “killing the rally”. A single moving the only base runner from 1st to 3rd has an expected result of 1.14 runs for the remainder of the inning which is more than the 0.243 runs expected after the HR and fewer than the 2.243 runs expected including the HR.

“Killing the rally” is imprecise because it carries a negative connotation and hitting a HR is the best possible result for the offense in virtually all situations (large lead in the 3rd inning and a storm moving in you might prefer an out) but it’s technically correct as the announcer is letting the listener or viewer know that further scoring is unlikely.

    Bryan

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    Bryan