Adrian Beltre: First Ballot Hall of Famer?
For nearly the last two decades, one of the best all-around players in the MLB has gone largely underappreciated. Adrian Beltre has been a force, both at the plate and in the field, for much of his 18-year career. While his exploits have been at a Hall of Fame level, he is not often discussed among the greats in the game. At the end of his career, will Beltre not only enter the Hall of Fame, but be on the first ballot?
YOUNG MAN IN A BIG CITY
Beltre made his MLB debut for the Dodgers on June 24, 1998 at the tender age of 19. Beltre would make an immediate impact, collecting two hits in his debut, including one off of Angels’ All Star hurler Chuck Finley. He would hit a homerun in his 6th career game, a two-run shot off of former 20 game winner Rick Helling of the Texas Rangers. At age 19 years, 84 days, Beltre became the youngest Dodger to hit a homerun since 1945, and the second-youngest ever, behind only Tommy Brown.
Beltre would play parts of 7 seasons with the Dodgers, becoming a mainstay at the hot corner. He put on display his elite defense while he was with the Dodgers, but his bat was somewhat inconsistent. It was his last season with L.A., in 2004, in which Beltre found his way at the plate and had a career year. Beltre hit .334, hit a league-leading 48 HR, and drove in a career-best 121 runs in 2004. This was also his contract year, so Beltre was able to parlay his success into a huge free agent contract at only age 25.
THE MARINERS’ BIG CATCH
Prior to the 2005 season, Beltre signed a 5-year, $64M deal with the Mariners. Coming off of an incredible season, many expected Beltre to continue his dominant work at the plate. Beltre would struggle, however, with the Mariners and their spacious ballpark. In 2005, Beltre would hit .255 with 19 homeruns. Beltre struggled to adjust to the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Safeco Field, registering just a .694 OPS at home in 2005. For the next four years with Seattle, Beltre would regain some of his previous form, but never the batting form of 2004.
One thing that never left Beltre, however, was his sterling defense at third base. In Beltre’s time with the Mariners from 2005 to 2009, he logged the highest defensive WAR (dWAR) among all third basemen, and the fifth-best among any player. He would win two Gold Gloves (2007, 2008) and two Fielding Bible awards (2006, 2008) for his fielding exploits while with the Mariners.
FRESH SURROUNDINGS, FRESH RESULTS
After the 2009 season, Beltre signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. Beltre would return to being a major force at the plate, racking up a .919 OPS and leading the league with 49 doubles. He would also appear in his first All Star Game and collect his first Silver Slugger Award. Beltre would end up declining his player option for 2011 with Boston, again becoming a free agent.
Before the 2011 season, Beltre signed a 5-year, $80M contract with the Texas Rangers. This time around, however, he would make good immediately on his long-term contract signing. He hit .296 with 32 homeruns in 2011, along with making another All Star team, winning another Gold Glove, and winning another Silver Slugger. In his 5 full seasons with Texas, Beltre has won 2 Gold Gloves, won 2 Silver Sluggers, appeared in 3 All Star games, and been in the top 15 of the AL MVP voting all 5 years.
MEN LIE, WOMEN LIE, NUMBERS DON’T LIE
The name “Adrian Beltre” may not bring the kind of name recognition of some third basemen that have previously been enshrined in Cooperstown, but his numbers put him right in the mix with the greats. Now that Beltre has signed an extension in Texas that will keep him there through 2018 (his age 38 season), one can begin to speculate what his numbers may eventually end up at. In terms of the normal “Hall of Fame counting numbers,” Beltre will likely end up with more than 3,000 hits, more than 450 homeruns, and more than 1,650 RBI if he is able to keep close to his current pace. Each of these milestones would put Beltre in elite company.
Third basemen with 3,000+ hits, all-time:
- George Brett (3,154)- Hall of Famer
- Wade Boggs (3,010)- Hall of Famer
Third basemen with 450+ HR, all-time:
- Mike Schmidt (548)- Hall of Famer
- Eddie Mathews (512)- Hall of Famer
- Chipper Jones (468)- Soon-to-be Hall of Famer
Third basemen with 1,500+ RBI, all-time
- Chipper Jones (1,623)
- George Brett (1,596)
- Mike Schmidt (1,595)
Beltre’s career offensive exploits have been quite impressive, despite the fact that many of them have flown under the radar. Only 8 players have ever attained 3000+ hits and 450+ homeruns. Among those players, six of them are enshrined in Cooperstown, and the other two (Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro) are likely black-listed from the Hall for other reasons.
While his offensive numbers are Hall of Fame-worthy, his defensive numbers might be even more impressive. According to Baseball-Reference’s dWAR statistic, Beltre has the 11th-highest career dWAR of all time, and the second-highest among third basemen, trailing only Brooks Robinson. In terms of the defensive runs saved statistic on Baseball-Reference, Beltre is the 5th-best of any position, behind only Robinson, Mark Belanger, Ozzie Smith, and Andruw Jones.
Beltre’s name may not scream “Cooperstown” at the casual fan, but his numbers certainly do. He has likely not gained enough notoriety throughout his career to gain first-ballot status, but I can tell you one thing: he would certainly have my vote.
(all statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
