The Derby Curse: Is It Real?

Since its onset in 1985, the modern version of the Home Run Derby has been a highlight of the All Star weekend for most fans, including me. There’s something almost breathtaking about watching the best sluggers in baseball take turns launching baseballs into the seats. While the spectacle itself is marvelous, it still comes with some detractors. Many coaches and agents have become wary of having their clients/players participate in a contest that doesn’t count toward anything. Attached to this train of thought is a stigma that participating in the Derby can cause a second-half slump. Can an extended performance in the Derby ruin the rest of a player’s season?

WALLY’S WORLD

In 1986, in the second edition of the modern Derby, rookie Wally Joyner hit 4 homeruns to share the Derby crown with Darryl Strawberry. Joyner was on the tail of a wildly successful first half of his rookie season, in which he hit 20 homeruns and registered a .904 OPS. After such a successful first half and a Derby victory, Joyner was unable to continue his success after the All Star break. From the end of the Derby to the end of the season, Joyner only hit 2 homeruns and registered a paltry .664 OPS. Despite his awful second half, Joyner still finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting, losing out to slugger Jose Canseco. This second half slide was not just a one-year occurrence, however, as Joyner’s AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS+ all dropped from the first half to the second half over the course of his career. Joyner would hit 34 homeruns in 1987, but he would never hit 25 homeruns in a season again or make another All Star game.

BIG FLIES FOR BIG MAC

In 1987 and 1990, Oakland slugger Mark McGwire participated in the Derby, but only hit one homerun in each event. He redeemed himself in 1992, launching 12 homers out of Jack Murphy Stadium in San Diego, capturing the Derby crown. McGwire had 28 homers leading into the Derby, but only managed 14 dingers the rest of the season. This wasn’t necessarily indicative of a post-Derby effect, however, as McGwire hit 331 of his career homeruns in the first half of season, versus 225 in the second half.

MR. ANDERSON

In 2003, sweet-swinging lefty Garret Anderson of the Angels put on a show in Chicago, edging out slugger Albert Pujols in the finals. Anderson would match his season total in the competition, as he had 22 homers leading into the Derby, and he hit a total of 22 in the competition. Anderson, however, saw his homer numbers drop precipitously in the second half of 2003, as he hit only 7 homers the rest of the season. While his homerun total may have leveled off, his production certainly did not, as he ended up leading the American League with 49 doubles on the season. Anderson’s profile was never that of a feast-or-famine sort of power hitter, as he was more of a line drive-type hitter. Anderson still finished the season with an OPS of .885 and was awarded a Silver Slugger.

BOBBY GOES BANANAS

One of the most memorable Derby performances was put on by Bobby Abreu at Comerica Field in 2005. Abreu had a legendary first round, hanging up 24 taters on his way to a then-record 41 total homeruns throughout the competition on his way to the title. Ironically, Abreu’s homerun total for 2005 would match the 24 he hit in just one round of the Derby. He only mustered 6 more homeruns after the Derby, and his OPS for the rest of the season was more than 150 points lower than his pre-Derby tally. Abreu would never reach 24 homeruns again in his career, and he would never again make the All Star Game. With another line-driving hitting profile, Abreu’s decline in homeruns once again isn’t necessarily a red flag, but his decline in OPS was somewhat alarming.

A RUNNER UP THAT WASN’T

When a baseball fan thinks of the 2008 Derby at Yankee Stadium, he/she probably doesn’t remember that Justin Morneau technically won the competition. Josh Hamilton put on a scintillating performance in the first round, launching 28 dingers deep into the New York night. Hamilton would actually hit more total homers than Morneau, but the Canadian slugger would edge Hamilton in the finals. After hitting 21 homers pre-Derby, Hamilton would slow down the rest of the season, hitting 11 homers to finish out the season. While Hamilton taking a lot of swings in the Derby may be considered as a reason for his decline, he has hit 44 more homeruns (122) in his career during the first half of seasons versus the second half (78). If there has been anything that has contributed to Hamilton’s decline, it has been recurring injuries and an inability to get back on the field.

FRAZIER LOST HIS FLAVOR

While there is terrific opportunity for a “down goes Frazier” narrative right here, the numbers sort of speak for themselves. In 2015, Todd Frazier put on a show in front of his hometown crowd, as the then-Reds third baseman won the Derby during the new format with a timer in each round. Frazier put on a dramatic performance, edging Dodgers’ rookie Joc Pederson in the finals. Frazier had a torrid start leading into the Derby, carrying a .922 OPS on his way to 25 big flies. He would cool off dramatically post-Derby, hitting only 10 homers the rest of the way and carrying a .664 OPS. Once again, however, this is not a direct result of the Derby. Frazier’s career OPS is 85 points lower in the second half, and he has 88 homers in the first half, with only 45 homers in the second half of seasons. Frazier again put on a great performance in 2016, finally bowing out in the finals to the sensational Giancarlo Stanton. With 25 taters leading into this year’s Derby, time will only tell if Frazier continues his second-half struggles.

BUSTING THE MYTH

As you can see above, any second-half struggles do not directly correlate with a player’s performance in the Derby, but rather a coincidental trend in second-half performance. Ken Griffey, Jr. won the Derby three times, but never saw the sort of decline that some players have experienced. A second-half decline can be attributed to many things, whether it be the warmer weather, injury, or just a general season-long fatigue. One thing it is almost impossible to attribute a decline to: a player taking a bunch of swings at a glorified batting practice event. Giancarlo Stanton shattered Abreu’s record of 41 total homers by clubbing 61 big flies at the 2016 Derby. It’s hard to imagine a player with Stanton’s sort of power-hitting profile will experience a precipitous decline due to just the Derby.

(statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com)