Indiana Pacers: 15 Pretty Bold Predictions For 2017–18 (Part 2)
“With the beginning of every sports season comes a bold prediction column.”
- Ancient American Proverb
Most writers come up with BOLD prediction columns as a way to say crazy things that won’t come true, but might. There’s no harm. It probably won’t end up on Cold Takes Exposed if you admit that your predictions are a bit out there.
This is that column by me on the Indiana Pacers, but not exactly. These aren’t wild or hot takes. These are meant to serve as a preview for what’s to come with the Pacers season.
None of these things are outlandish and ridiculous. They’re meant to be things that make you say hmmm. Things that make you think about the Pacers roster, player roles, and what they’re headed for this season.
(For Part One with predictions 1–4, click right here)
5. Lance Stephenson gets more than one triple-double this season.
In 2013–14, Stephenson led the league in triple-doubles with five. Since then, he’s had a roller-coaster of a career. A roller-coaster with more down spots than up.
In Indiana, the Pacers know how to use Stephenson and are willing to let Lance be Lance. Backup point guard Corey Joseph has experience playing off-the-ball in San Antonio and Toronto, and should make an ideal backcourt partner with Stephenson.
By handing the second unit offense over to Stephenson, you’re allowing him to be your primary attacker. He’s going to drive, he’s going to find the open teammate, he’s going to steal rebounds from teammates to jumpstart transition offense.
Stephenson’s game is conducive to filling up the stat sheet and he’ll be able to do that in a sixth man role. He’s a swiss-army knife as he provided ball-handling and defense in a wing’s body. He can play three positions and with wing depth limited and no great point guard, he’ll likely receive minutes comparable to a starter.
Last season, the entire league combined for 164 triple-doubles. Only one of those came from a reserve (Tim Frazier). Stephenson will change that in 17–18.
6. The Indiana Pacers’ bench unit has more success than the starters.
This doesn’t mean the bench is better, it just means they’ll outplay opposing benches while opposing starters outplays the Pacers’ starters.
For example, last year, the Nets, Lakers, and Sixers had three of the four highest scoring benches in the league last season. They also finished with three of the four worst records in the NBA last year.
For those bad teams listed above, the bench had more success than the starters. The Pacers have a roster with Turner, Oladipo, Young, and the rest wouldn’t start on a contender. Having a roster full of sixth, seventh, or eighth men is bad but will result in a solid bench that will allow them to stay more competitive than they should be.
In contrast to years past, Pacers fans won’t get nausea when the second unit is on the floor.
7. Lance Stephenson finishes in the top five of the Sixth Man voting.
If #6 and #7 come true, so will this one.
Stephenson’s playing style (constantly attacking, high-usage, rebound-chasing) lends itself to padding the stat sheet.
Last year’s Sixth Man recipient Eric Gordon is likely the favorite to win in 2017–18.
Andre Iguodala averaged 7.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game last season and at age 34 with Nick Young and Omri Casspi being added to the bench, might be due for a minutes and usage reduction.
Stephenson will have solid numbers, I’d say 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists to go along with above-average defense.
On a team that seems destined for the lottery, it won’t be enough to win, but it should be enough to land him in the top five.
8. Bojan Bogdanovic makes 170+ three-pointers.
In his three NBA seasons, Bojan Bogdanovic has proven three things.
- He can score.
- He can’t play defense.
- He is going to shoot a lot of three’s.
The Indiana Pacers will start Bogdanovic and he should be due for a ton of minutes while Glenn Robinson III comes back from a severe ankle sprain.
Bogdanovic was signed with shooting in mind.
“He’s an outstanding shooter,” McMillan said, via the Indy Star. “He certainly fills a need. We needed a forward to come in and we needed a shooter. Bogdanovic takes Paul George’s spot as the starting small-forward, but really, he takes on C.J. Miles’ role in the offense as the floor-spacer. Miles made 169 three-pointers last season.
Bogdanovic made 144 three-pointers last season with the Nets and Wizards. He played 25.7 minutes per game last year and I’d expect him to float around 30 minutes per game in the upcoming season.
With the minutes increase and even more of a green light to fire up three-pointers, expect Bogdanovic to sniff around the top 20 in three-pointers made this season. If you play fantasy basketball in a league with any type of bonus for three-pointers made, Bogdanovic is a sneaky-good play towards the end of the draft.
9. Ike Anigbogu is a revelation.
Anigbogo currently isn’t in the Pacers’ rotation. Not only is he not in the rotation, he’s likely not next in line as he sits behind Al Jefferson on the team’s third unit.
However Anigbogu fills a need that the Pacers otherwise can’t fill: a rim-protecting big man.
Pacers President of Basketball Operations Kevin Pritchard chimed in on Anigbogu’s skill-set at Pacers Media Day, “He is a defensive presence right now. Today.”
Al Jefferson is not a defensive presence, at least not a good one. Rim protection was a red flag for Domantas Sabonis coming out of college and didn’t show those skills as a rookie. T.J. Leaf isn’t an ideal center and doesn’t have the athleticism or length to project as a rim protector.
When it comes to defending in the paint, Anigbogu will be the team’s second-best option behind Myles Turner.
I wouldn’t expect this to happen right away, as Anigbogu returns from a knee injury that crushed his draft stock. He enters the season on the outside of getting minutes, but injuries and roster moves will happen and Anigbogu will get his minutes and make use of them.
(Part 3 will be released on Friday)
