Dexcom and the Future of Diabetes
Dexcom (DXCM) is a company that clearly has a lot going for it. This is a company that makes the… Well, I can’t say they are the leading blood glucose monitor as far as sales go, and I can’t say they are leading the way in blood glucose monitoring technology, either. Even though Alphabet’s Verily has partnered with them, they could have just purchased Dexcom outright. I think this is an excellent partnership, and I am curious to see where it leads… But Dexcom’s stock is expensive, and Alphabet definitely noticed.
I’m a type 1 diabetic. Have I tried the Dexcom monitor? Nope. Do I want to? Nope. Allow me to be a little bit irrational here to help explain my point. I personally don’t like the application of the sensor, the protruding part of the sensor, nor do I even like the actual monitor. Even though it lasts for a week (a positive), I still have to live with a sliver of device stuck into my abdomen and a nub above it, along with a bandage/tape to secure it. Honestly, even though it is advanced technology, it still feels, to me, extremely primitive. It’s part of the reason I’m looking forward to the Verily partnership. I have a lot of pets, large, aggressive play pets, and I have a feeling that nub could be ripped off of my stomach at any time. It’s part of the reason I won’t use an insulin pump, either. I simply can think of too many scenarios where the device would be in danger while attached to me.
I highly doubt that I am the only person who won’t buy the Dexcom monitor simply because of the way the product works. If you look at the video of someone applying the sensor, you should be scared out of your mind. The “syringe” (or pump) insertion device is huge, can jiggle around, and it appears that it takes more than light force to inject the sensor. I get that it’s once a week, but I’d much rather sit on the sidelines pricking my finger while I wait for new technology.
What kind of new technology am I waiting for? Isn’t the current Dexcom solution the bleeding edge of diabetic technology? Not even close.
Within the next five years, there is a high probability of having two new ways of monitoring blood sugar that require zero finger pricks, injections, or other surgery.
Firstly, wearables. There have been significant advances in reading blood sugar (and other diagnostic) levels through the skin surface. Package this sensor compactly onto the backside of an Apple Watch or FitBit and Dexcom has just become obsolete. Secondly, Google Life Sciences/Verily has long been in development of a smart contact lens. By using tears or the membrane surface of the eye, this contact lens would theoretically be able to read blood glucose. That’s what they’ve said they were working on in the past, anyway. The Dexcom/Verily partnership is a smart move by Verily, because they are able to learn how to accurately monitor glucose and apply the technology to their lens. It seems to be a raw deal for Dexcom in the long run, seeing as the contact lens would put their sensor to shame and put them out of business. Same for the wearables. These tech companies will completely cannibalize Dexcom. Their devices will chew up DXCM and spit it out.
So what if I’m wrong and these devices never come to fruition? Well, I would be sad. But then I have something else to look forward to. Recent stem cell research teams have developed embryonic stem cells that change into insulin producing cells, the ones that reduce in production over time in a type 1. https://www.cirm.ca.gov/our-progress/disease-information/diabetes-fact-sheet …
Some studies estimate that a single injection of these cells could treat type 1 diabetes in a patient throughout a one to two year range. That means no glucose monitoring. Hell, it even means no more daily injections, affecting the revenues of the entire diabetes sector of the healthcare industry.
So what do we do with Dexcom? Will they increase their sales in the short-term? Sure. In the long-term? Worthless; unless they can develop and sell one of the sensors that would go into a wearable. That would basically put them into the semiconductor sector, though. Normally, people invest into companies whose products they use and enjoy. I would not use their product, so ultimately I cannot support the stock. Unless they get acquired (and they should accept any bid), I see this stock being at zero when a wearable that can accurately track blood glucose levels all day is released without a Dexcom sensor inside of it. I really struggled writing this from a personal level, since I know their product does work and is helping people. However, I had to write this because this is how I truly feel about diabetic technology going forward.
