An Unfinished Write Up about The 2019 Kentucky Governor’s Race through Maps

20 min readMay 25, 2020

I’ve divided Kentucky into 20 regions, trying to keep the populations around equal, and cultures the same.

I want this to be fun so at the bottom there is a playlist to go along with each region of the state. There will also be a Sufjan {cool musician I like} style song title name for each region and some interesting reads to learn more about the towns in the area. Each “Learn More:” will be a link and a quote from the article linked.

Statewide: Trump won 65.7% of the two-party vote, Hillary received 34.3% — Matt Bevin received 49.88% of the two-party vote, Andy Beshear won 50.12%. Andy outperformed Hillary by 15.88%, we will use this as a benchmark to look at where Andy performed better or worse in.

Bevin in 2015 received 54.5% of the two-party vote and Conway received 45.5%. Beshear outran Conway by 4.62% of the vote. We will also use this to look at where Andy performed better or worse statewide than expected.

Region 1: Southeast Region — Harlan, and Surrounding Counties (Whitley, Knox, Bell, Clay, Leslie, Perry, and Letcher)

Music: Red Allen, Kenny Baker

Harlan is in the region, home to the Harlan protests earlier this year.

***Learn More: “If I knew for a fact that coal mining would last, I’d do it for the rest of my life,” says James Brown, 30. “But I’ve got three kids, a wife, a motorcycle, a truck. I’ve got to pay for them. My little boy asks me to take him to Disney World all the time, and I’m going to take the little bastard to Disney World.”***

Harlan is also famous for folk songs written about earlier labor disputes and home to the 1930 Harlan Labor Wars.

***Learn More: “Three company men and one striker were killed in the exchange of gunfire. In response to the violence, the Kentucky National Guard was called in. The strikers expected protection, but upon replacing deputized mine guards, the National Guard broke the picket lines instead.”***

Nowadays the counties are extremely white. The two whitest metros in Kentucky are London and Middlesborough which make up most of this region. The county that is least white in the region is 92.6% and in second place is Bell with 94.6% (https://statisticalatlas.com/state/Kentucky/Race-and-Ethnicity#data-map/county)

It is also has a significant number of non-high school educated individuals, with up to 1 in 6 not having a high school diploma or equivalent in some counties. Around 20% have College Degrees or higher in the counties. The other 65% have either a high school degree or some college.

It is slowly improving, in 2000 there was a big anti illiteracy push in the United States, a lot of it focused on Appalachia.

2000 — Link: “In Bell County, 52 percent of the 24,000 residents 16 and older have not finished high school or earned an equivalency diploma. Just 9 percent have a bachelor’s or master’s degree. Twenty-eight percent fall into the first level of literacy.”

2018 — Last year at Bell County High School a valedictorian who now goes to UK received National Press after saying a Trump quote, and after the crowd cheered, he revealed it was an Obama quote. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/04/us/graduate-quotes-trump-obama.html

1979 — Bell County is one of the many counties this year that elected to start allowing alcohol sales, but in 1979 things were different (Learn More: “…the local [dry] option is being subverted . . . . The entire political life style around here is colored by alcohol.”)

2012 — The NYTimes Upshot team created a metric to “give a picture of the quality and longevity of life in each county of the nation”. It found that Clay County had the worst quality of life. Leslie County was also in the bottom ten. In Clay County, nearly half of the population is obese, the median income is $22,000, and only 7.4% had a college degree or higher (Nationwide average is around 35%). Learn More:

1996 — Leslie County is where UK Football player and NFL Number 1 pick Tim Couch was from. It also was the first county to name a building after Nixon after he resigned. ‘And a woman who asked that she not be identified said, “Naming a youth center after one of the most corrupt men in history — I don’t get it.”’ Link:

This area was one of the most Pro-Union areas in the whole country, “…areas surrounding it contributed more troops to the Union Army relative to population than any other part of the United States.” -Wikipedia

1996 — Letcher County has a pretty ugly past going through the archives, but a more recent article shows the sentiment of the residents in a nicer way. Link:

In Letcher, officials estimate that 100,000 gallons a day flows into streams, poisoning wells and sickening residents.
Mr. McAuley, the grocer in Kona, discussed the sewer plan with a customer. ‘’As long as it’s free,’’ the customer said as he left, ‘’go ahead.’’

2019 — Recently, after coal mines left the county, Letcher saw the greatest shift in the gender balance of its labor force: Link

Perry County has a small town which was one of the first to pass a Fairness Ordinance and elected a gay mayor — Link

AIDS Activist Belinda Mason was from Letcher Kentucky.

Bell County also does not have the precinct results available so it will be an average of precincts so it’s still somewhat comparable to the other surrounding correct precincts.

There are lots of ancestral Democrats Precincts in these areas, but some counties are almost completely Republican Precincts.

Bell, Knox, Leslie, and Whitley are heavy Republican Registered, the others are not.

Here is the Presidential Vote Share, a bit boring to look at.

Here it is with circles denoting the amount of votes

Here is the 2015 Governor’s Map (Conway vs Bevin): There’s blue on the edges and deep red in even Ancestral Dem precincts

Here is another way of looking at it, the circle size is how many people voted in the precinct and color is Democratic/Republican votes.

We see that Letcher County has a bit more blue precincts. Here is the county map:

And here is the county map for 2019:

And now this a map comparing 2019 Beshear and Conway adjusted for statewide results:

I think it’s really interesting the difference in Perry County and Knott county shifting a bit back to Beshear but Harlan County shifting even further right, even though it’s heavily registered Democratic.

Here is the Precinct Map for the 2019 Governor’s Race

So there are the maps, as we see the blue precincts came from the ancestral Democratic precincts, but a lot of them still went Bevin.

Here it is in scatterplot form.

The one outlier in the top left is a small precinct in Whitley County in the middle of the township. It voted 25–12 for Beshear and 48–23 for Trump.

Beshear received about twice as many votes as Hillary did, (17,320 vs 9,125) while Bevin received about 18,000 less than Trump (32,342 vs 50,645). Beshear outran Bevin 41,520 vs 15,022 by 26,498 votes.

The two-party percent total is Bevin 65.1% — Beshear 34.9% vs Trump 84.7%-Hillary 15.3%. Therefore Beshear outperformed Hillary by 19.6% which is a +4% than the Statewide total. Here is a map of (Beshear-15.88%)-Hillary, it is a map comparing how he did in each precinct vs how he did statewide.

The dark blue areas are places where Beshear outran Hillary by 20%, so while Beshear outran Hillary almost everywhere, he especially did in the northeast part of the region. Conway lost this region 32.56%-67.44%, so Beshear underperformed by 2.28% in the region, here is the precinct map:

Some precincts in Whitley (Westernmost county) went back to Beshear, most of the blue are in town areas. and most of the red are in the outer parts of counties.

Here is who on the Democratic ticket did best, mostly Andy Beshear (which makes sense since he outperformed the others)

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Region 2: Jackson County, Corbyn, London, and Friends!

Music: David “Stringbean” Akeman

County Stories:

Jackson County:

The One-Traffic-Light Town with Some of the Fastest Internet in the U.S.

Before Shani Hays began providing tech support for Apple from her home, in McKee, Kentucky, she worked at a prison as a…

www.newyorker.com

Cumberland County has a town of Burkesville, that was shaken by a showdown between a vigilante and a commonwealth’s attorney. Link:

It is clear that people like Eddie Vaughn and Fred Capps should never come near each other, and in a big city or even a large town they probably would not. But Vaughn and Capps were reared in the same tiny place, a community called Burkesville, nestled deep within the Cumberland Mountains of far southern Kentucky.

Clinton County has been hit hard by the Pharmaceutical Mass Murdering of Rural Kentuckians — Link:

a single drugstore in tiny Albany, Ky., purchased nearly 6.8 million hydrocodone and oxycodone pills during that period, equivalent to 96 a year for all 10,000 or so men, women and children in surrounding Clinton County. This was the most on a per capita, per county basis in the United States.

Wayne County: Link: A nice story about a cave explorer in Wayne County.

McCreary County KY: In 1979, the Union of Mine Workers were having trouble rebuilding, the Washington Post sent a reporter to see how solidarity was shaping at the grassroots level. Link:

One striker told Bernton: “Young miners have opened their eyes. They’ve seen men come out of the mines with fingers cut off and head mashed flatter than a pancake.”

In Adair County: A dedicated reporter is showing the costs of the opioid epidemic in her county. Link:

To be sure the stories got out, Burton mailed free copies of the paper to every household in the county. That’s 8,000 copies to blanket the county of 19,000, where 23% of the people live below the poverty level.

For some reason, Clinton isn’t showing up on the map, but rest be assured, it’s exactly like Cumberland County to the West of it.

Casey County: Home to The Casey County Apple Festival, named the best festival in Kentucky for 2010, and 2012-2015. It features a 10-foot wide apple pie as the centerpiece every year.

Lincoln County is home to ‘the first brick house west of the Allegheny Mountains, and see where William Whitley “Turned Racing Around” with the first counter-clockwise racetrack in America — opposite of how the British ran horse races.’

In 2018, a Republican Rockcastle County teacher successfully primaried the Majority House Leader of the Statehouse who repeatedly had made cuts to education funding. But don’t worry because the man who lost his seat got a cushy job at a right-wing lobbying firm. It seems he’s leading part of Mitch’s campaign if you want some optimism for 2020.

Laurel County is where Matt Bevin brought Mike Pence for multiple events, Corbin is the subject of a nice article by Silas House — Link:

Today, Corbin is better known for its vibrant downtown scene than the travesty that happened there almost a century ago. At the Moonbow art gallery, one of the many new shops in town, the most popular items are those emblazoned with artist Lacy Hale’s proclamation “No Hate in My Holler.”

It is almost completely registered Republican, besides some precincts in Lincoln county which has some precincts around 58% Democrat. The rest of the region is around 25% Democrat.

Here is how the region voted in 2016 in circle form, obviously a heavily red area.

The best precinct for her, she only received 31.5% of the 2 Party Vote.

Pulaski County had the third most votes in the Republican Primary, it had the 44th most votes for the Democratic Primary.

For Conway, things mostly looked the same besides some strength in Wayne County (which he still lost pretty handily).

Precinct Results:

County Results:

In 2019, things got even worse for the Democratic Ticket.

Here is the precinct map:

Three out of Four Northern Wayne County Precincts flipped to Red (the one blue is hidden)

Here’s a boring map of 2019 Governor/2016 Pres Majority (Red is Bevin/Trump, Blue is Beshear/Trump):

Here is a comparison of the district totals from 2015 Gov to 2019 Gov:

Beshear lost by 5,000 more than Conway in this small region. An adjusted precinct by precinct comparison shows this:

Some blue near the city areas of Laurel County, and dark blue in Wayne County.

Here is who did the best between Andy Beshear, Heather French Henry, Greg Stumbo, and Robert Haley Conway. Andy Beshear dominated this region:

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Region 3: Pike, Floyd, Boyd and EKY (the ones who have precincts available):

This region has produced a lot of Eastern Kentucky Culture:

Johnson County (Paintsville) has produced Country Music singers Tyler Childers, Chris Stapleton, and sports stars Kash Daniel and John Pelphrey. In Paintsville there is the US Highway 23 Country Music Museum featuring country music entertainers who were born or lived near U.S. Route 23. It includes include Billy Ray Cyrus, The Judds, Tom T. Hall, Ricky Skaggs, Hylo Brown, Loretta Lynn, Rebecca Lynn Howard, Keith Whitley, Dwight Yoakam, Patty Loveless, and Gary Stewart.

Floyd County is home to Democratic AG Candidate Greg Stumbo and Republican Treasurer Candidate Allison Ball. Was also home to a selfless woman named Mrs. Hall who non-hyperbolically took care of the whole county LINK:

From one room of a trailer behind the clinic, Mrs. Hall also runs the Mud Creek Water District, which she helped organize two decades ago. It pipes potable water to 800 homes, 90 percent of which had contaminated wells when the district was organized in the 1960’s. From another room she distributes free food at the end of the month, when people’s food stamps run down. From a third room she gives away clothes collected by churches.
“But it’s hard to work with a saint sometimes,” Dr. Joyce said. “She works till she’s sick, which she is, with heart disease and arthritis.”
My dream from the time I was a child was a health facility where nobody would be turned away.”

Martin County has been hit hard by the water crisis, in 1981 with the start of Reaganomics, locals were optimistic. Reaganomics ended up decimating the county. LINK:

Mrs. Mollett, who has lived all of her 49 years in Martin County, has seen hopes raised and dashed more times than she can count. “If they cut back on the Government programs, that’s going to hurt,” she says. “They never did do much for me, though. Neither did coal. I’d like to move away, but I can’t. I’m stuck here.”

In 2000, 250 million gallons of coal-mining sludge covered the town of Inez in Martin County further “worsening the economic disaster” in the county. Lyndon B Johnson had started the War on Poverty in Inez 40 years earlier, and made some progress, but Reaganomics started 20 years earlier, coal prices dropped, automation started and the county regressed. LINK:

The company attributes the spill to an act of God, a claim that stirs derision in this heavily Baptist community. Mr. Hatfield is less certain. ‘’I don’t know what happened,’’ he said. ‘’I don’t think anybody else does.’’ With lawsuits building against it, the company has taken some extra measures, like installing a Massey public relations man.

Here is an article detailing the Martin County Water Crisis — Link:

The federal investigation into the spill ended when George W. Bush took office in January 2001. The Mine Safety and Health Administration’s team of investigators were sidelined when their investigation was cut short by the new administration. Don Blankenship the Chairman and CEO of Massey Energy, the now-defunct company responsible for the spill, had donated money to the Republican party, and halting the investigation was seen as a way to thank him for his support.

Breathitt County was once home to Sturgill Simpson (Grammy Award Winning Artist and Nominated for Album of the Year) and J.D. Vance, author of the controversial Hillbilly Elegy. Breathitt County had flashes of violence in the early 1900’s with thousands of bullets and dynamite flying through the air some nights. Today, it is still as rural and white as ever. This Washington Post piece shows what life is like in Breathitt County through pictures. Link:

The two-party vote for the 2016 Presidential Election map is extremely red, no surprise.

The 2015 Map shows some blue in Boyd County and Floyd County for Conway:

As a circle graph to see size of precincts:

Here are the 2015 County results:

Lots of light red counties besides Martin and Johnson.

Here is a scatterplot comparing Conway to Hillary, we see Conway outperformed Hillary everywhere, and by an average of 25%.

This leads us to today, the goal would be 5% higher than Conway and 16% higher than Hillary, but it’s an area trending away from Democrats so even falling a bit short of that would be in a good position.

There is a lot more blue-tinged throughout the Region, especially the southwest part, and Carter+Boyd county up north.

Beshear flipped 4 counties, did better than Conway in 9 counties, and but lost 2.5% in Floyd. Beshear’s most improved county was Magoffin County, also the county that Rocky Adkins did best in the primary (but not where he is from or holds office). Magoffin had a whopping 62.9% Democrat turnout in the primary and Rocky won 88%. Rocky campaigned hard for Andy Beshear and the rest of the ticket.

Here is Beshear vs Conway adjusted for statewide:

Beshear cut the margin from Conway’s 6,000 to 4,000, Hillary lost the region by 52,000, so a 48,000 difference between Beshear vs Hillary.

Beshear lost 47.5% to 52.5%

Conway lost 44.1% to 55.9%

So an improvement of 3.4%, which is a bit short of the goal, but still impressive considering the district is trending red and the increased turnout.

Beshear vs Hillary map — Blue is where Beshear outperformed Hillary and vice versa:

This is less surprising since this is where state democrats and national republicans reside.

Here is the Democratic Ticket:

Robert Haley Conway doing better in some precincts kind of surprised me, Ag Commissioner has long been Republican.

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The Cursed Region: The region without precinct results:

There is a string of counties in Eastern Kentucky with no precinct results uploaded, this is their story:

Owsley County was where a Serial Killer grew up in the early 80s (Link:) and many articles have been written about it being so poor, the poorest in the country with over half of the population is on SNAP, and white. Yet it is still a heavy Republican voting area (even after they cut the Owsley County benefits).

Lee County is home to the Wooly Worm Festival where you can race worms. They have moonshine and a pageant at the festival. Still overwhelmingly white and poor. This is a good writeup about the county that voted so heavily for Trump Link:

“I hope [Trump] don’t take the benefits away, but at the same time, I think that once more jobs come in a lot of people won’t need the benefits,” says Hayes, who currently receives about $500 a month from government assistance. She’s also on Obamacare.

Wolfe County is the first KY-06 county that we have gotten to. It is home to the Red River Gorge and renowned pizza place Miguel’s Pizza. Wolfe County and Elliot County are the only two counties to vote against Mitch McConnell in all of his elections. The Rural County is host to the Swift Silver Mine Festival.

Menifee County is also in the 6th Congressional District, it has 6,000 people total in it, and is home to Frenchburg. In 2008, it voted for Barack Obama. in 2016, it voted for Donald Trump.

Morgan County and other Eastern Kentucky sheriffs were facing a surge in assassinations in the early 2000’s that has since died down. LINK

‘’When you’re a sheriff in eastern Kentucky, you watch your back every day,’’ Mr. Jordan said.

Rowan County is home to the town Morehead, and the college Morehead State which is where Rocky Adkins played basketball, Billy Ray Cyrus went to school for a year, and beat Louisville in the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Kim Davis, the homophobic clerk, worked in this county. In 2018, she was voted out of her position. The NYTimes wrote about her loss: Link

Everyone in Rowan County is tired of hearing about Rowan County. When the news of Ms. Davis’s defiance got out that summer, international media descended, presidential candidates elbowed into the spotlight and demonstrators from all over crammed into the county government building
Morehead, the county seat, is a quiet college town, with a City Council that in 2013 unanimously extended anti-discrimination protections to gay, lesbian and transgender people. But nobody outside the county ever seems to ask about this, or about the Kentucky Folk Art Center, or the lab at Morehead State where they build spacecraft.

Elliot County is a small county that is the definition of Blue Dog Democrats that voted for Trump. They still support Trump, even after the impeachment inquiry, supporting Roy Moore, Muslim Ban scandal, etc. LINK

But Lewis is sticking by him, because he feels like he has no other choice.
“Here’s the big thing,” he says, “if Trump lies to us, it won’t be anything different than what the rest of them always did.”

Lewis County, on the border of Ohio, is one of the most Republican counties in the country. It’s been Republican since 1876. Some famous people are from here, current Congressman Thomas Massie, KKK advocate Alma Bridwell White was born here, and 1907–13 Senator Thomas Paynter. It is 98.38% White.

This is a map of registered voters in the precinct:

The two lower counties and Lewis County are Registered Republican, while the middle chunk are registered Democratic.

In 2015 the map looked like this.

The shift to Republican was big this year, it is the first election that Menifee and Morgan went Republican in a long time. Some of them are over 90% registered Democrat.

This map is 2015 vs 2019 Map adjusted for Statewide results.

Rowan County was Beshear’s biggest shift, doing 9% better than Conway did last election, the others are close to the statewide shift in Conway vs Beshear which a 4.5% improvement is still impressive. Owsley County shifted a little to Beshear, but not much red.

We do have some precinct results from the 2016 Presidential Election, but only for Rowan and Menifee counties.

I’m a bit surprised to still see the inner Rowan County still vote for Hillary.

For the whole region, Beshear improved Conway’s deficit of -2,411 and cut it to -1,237. Conway received 42.6% and Beshear received 47.4%, an improvement of 4.8%, so a little bit less than 2015.

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NKY with the NE to Mason County

Boone, Kenton, and Campbell counties are the big 3 in this region. They’re counties with high education rates compared to the rest of the state. It is also about 90% white, with surrounding counties being up to 95% white.

This is a map of Democratic Percent of Precinct, lots of blue in rural counties that voted heavy for Trump.