What the world stands to lose if carbon emissions aren’t reduced

Life on our planet looks nothing like it did a few years ago, with the health of our planet having declined considerably over the course of just one lifetime.

I think that one of my personal heroes, Sir David Attenborough, put it best in his witness statement, ‘Life on Our Planet’, when he drew attention to the worsening state of our global environment¹. Since his career began just 70 years ago, the ceaseless disregard that humanity has had for the natural environment has seen animal populations more than halved (excluding the countless species that have likely gone extinct before their discovery by the scientific community). Of those which remain, just 4% of all animals on the planet are ‘free’, with the rest either captive or raised with the intention of being eaten¹.

But it’s not just animals that have suffered, so too have environments around the globe; humans continue to degrade the natural world at alarming rates and, as a result, we have seen, and will continue to see, a SIGNIFICANT change in the world around us. Here’s a (brief) overview of what the world stands to lose should we not do anything to curb emissions:

Global forests

I’ll start with the obvious and the environment that people equate most to the devastation associated with a changing climate. The world’s trees are both the cause and resolve of a changing global climate; they serve as a sink of carbon emissions when left to grow BUT emit considerable amounts of carbon back into the atmosphere when large areas of land are deforested in support of human development². By 2030, it is estimated that if current rates of deforestation continue, the Amazon rainforest will no longer be able to produce enough moisture to sustain life as it is now, and the environment will transform into a savanna. The implication of this will be ten-fold, with a loss in biodiversity and change to the global water cycle. Current estimates suggest that as much as 80% of the world’s forests have already been destroyed or degraded beyond repair³ and the picture doesn’t look set to improve. Should rates of global deforestation continue as they are now, the world may seem a lot more arid by 2100, with elevated temperatures, drier lands, considerable reductions in biodiversity and even a reduction in the supply of food and medicines that contain ingredients harvested from rainforest environments.

Mangroves

Keeping in the same vein as global forests, mangroves are also suffering and their loss continues to have biological and environmental consequences. Mangroves grow at the intersection of land and water, offering a natural buffer against the ill-effect of sea level rise (something which is also sadly worsened by climate change) and as a home to countless species of juvenile fish and crustaceans. A loss of these habitats will impact animals and people alike. To put things into perspective: current mangrove cover only accounts for ~3% of all trees on the planet, yet they could contribute up to 10% of global carbon emission should they all be cut down⁴. Been 2000 and 2016, 2.1% of the global mangroves forest was lost with 62% of this as a direct result of anthropogenic action (a change in land-use was the most common reason cited for this, converting areas of environmental significance into spaces for agriculture and aquaculture)⁵. Should clearance continue at the same rate, we stand to lose all mangrove forests within the next 752 years; sadly, rates of clearance are expected to increase and it would be quite optimistic to even assume that the world has 800 years left at its current level of growth and exploitation.

Polar ice caps

Climate change is causing the polar ice caps to melt at an alarming rate; sea ice in the Arctic is lost at a rate of 13% each decade and over the past 30 years, we have seen a 95% decline in the thickest and oldest ice observed in the region⁶. But why does the loss of an environment so far away from us matter? Well ice cover helps to keep the earth cool, reflecting the sun’s rays back out of our atmosphere. In addition to this, the loss of ice will result in sea level rise (and a change in salinity) with further environmental implications. By 2030, it is likely that the Arctic will start experiencing ice-free summers, with fewer white ice caps to reflect the sun’s radiation¹ — this creates a negative feedback loop whereby the accelerated warming of our climate due to a lack of ice will cause sea temperatures to warm and further increase the likelihood that ice will no longer be able to form in our world’s polar regions. Fast forward another ten years to 2040, and with the continued warming of our planet, it is likely that every summer in the Arctic will be ice free. Furthermore, permafrost soils in the North will have likely thawed by this time as well, releasing methane (a greenhouse gas) that has been safely stored for millions of years back into the atmosphere¹.

Corals

Global oceans are warming and slowly growing more acidic, making conditions inhospitable to corals around the world. Corals are living structures, vital to the integrity of entire underwater ecosystems; they form vast networks of calcium-based (inorganic) structures, housing zooxanthellae, living components, that can be thought of as the plants of the underwater world. In response to environmental stressors, however, corals bleach, ejecting the zooxanthellae from their calcium carbonate exoskeleton and rendering the coral incapable of life. Without corals, shallow coastal landscapes become barren and lifeless, just as we can observe on land following mass deforestation. In addition to this, there are communities of people who make a living based off the coral reef, so the loss of coral would also have a consequence for humans too. Sadly, as ocean conditions change, we have already noticed a 14% loss in corals since 200⁹⁷ with many other reefs on the brink of disaster.

Our cities

Come 2100, the world may be 4°c warmer than at present and uninhabitable to many¹. A warming climate has many consequences; less developed areas of the world will be without food, natural disasters will become increasingly more common, displacing thousands of people and sea levels will continue to rise. In 2020, global sea levels reached a record high of 3.6 inches greater than values previously recorded in 199³⁸. The rate of increase has also risen to 0.14 inches per year meaning that by 2050, a significant portion of land may be swallowed up by rising sea levels. It is likely that we will see changes in global land masses, with many coastal regions being lost to water; think of all the low-lying islands in Asia or something closer to home — Miami, the Statue of Liberty in New York or even London. Of course more developed areas of the world are equipped with flood defences, serving to help delay the inevitable, but it’s still a scary thought!

Once lost, a lot of these environments, the animals that call them home and the numerous benefits humans derive from them will be lost forever. So much change can happen within a lifetime. Please, can we make sure that in THIS lifetime, we start making changes for the better?

References

[1]: Earth.org (2020) Key Takeaways From David Attenborough’s New Film, ‘A Life on Our Planet’. Available at: https://earth.org/david-attenborough-new-film-a-life-on-our-planet/ Accessed: 18/07/2022.

[2]: WWF (2022) Forests & Climate change. Available at: https://wwf.panda.org/discover/our_focus/forests_practice/climate_change_and_forest/ Accessed: 18/07/2022.

[3]: Greenpeace (2022) Forest Destruction. Available at: https://www.greenpeace.org.au/what-we-do/protecting-forests/forest-destruction/ Accessed: 18/07/2022.

[4]: Merzdorf, J. (2020) NASA Study Maps the Roots Of Global Mangrove Loss. Available at: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3009/nasa-study-maps-the-roots-of-global-mangrove-loss/ Accessed: 18/07/2022.

[5]: Goldberg, L., Lagomasino, D., Thomas, N. and Fatoyinbo, T. (2020) Global declines in human-driven mangrove loss. Global Change Biology, 26(10) https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15275

[6]: Hancock, L. (2022) Six ways loss of Arctic ice impacts everyone. Available at: https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/six-ways-loss-of-arctic-ice-impacts-everyone Accessed: 18/07/2022.

[7]: WWF (2021) Around 14% of corals have been lost since 2009 due to global warming, but some show resilience, says report. Available at: https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?3876466/Around-14-of-corals-have-been-lost-since-2009-due-to-global-warming-but-some-show-resilience-says-report#:~:text=Around%2014%25%20of%20corals%20have,show%20resilience%2C%20says%20report%20%7C%20WWF Accessed: 18/07/2022.

[8]: Lindsey, R. (2022) Climate Change: Global Sea Level. Available at: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level Accessed: 18/07/2022.