Gus, good essay. Just about every innovation cycle follows an S-curve. A new S-curve starts with a breakthrough innovation, followed by a number of incremental innovations along that curve. As the curve matures, typically a new breakthrough innovation comes along to replace the old S-curve, and a new S-curve starts. Some events related to S-curves are easier than others to predict. Breakthrough innovation is the golden ring.
When you place a number of S-curves on a graph moving forward in time (long-term innovation analysis), a straight Moore-style slope usually emerges. I think there are universal principles built into this predictable nature of S-curves and innovation, perhaps like the power laws, but I’ve not figured them out yet :-)