What Sanders’s win in New Hampshire really means

The National Public Radio (NPR) website carried an article a couple of days ago with the five things we should know before the New Hampshire primary.

One thing it pointed out was about 44 per cent of voters are either independents or undeclared.

The article goes on:

unlike in many other states, those independents can vote here in either the Republican or the Democratic primary. That’s important because in an open presidential election, with the kind of interest that has been drummed up by this election on both sides, which way those indies go could sway the outcome.

That might be thought to help someone like Hillary Clinton, who is seen as more centrist than Bernie Sanders, but it’s Sanders who has been winning independents in the state, while Clinton does best with hard-core Democrats.

Indeed Sanders led by a good 20 percentage points days before his eventual victory last night.

But this is an important point: voters in the centre or Democrat undecideds — who make up a disproportionately large bloc in New Hampshire — chose Sanders over Clinton by a very large margin.

And this is even more interesting when you consider how far from the traditional centre Sanders is running from. Consider this from his victory speech last night:

So, are you guys ready for a radical idea? Together we are going to create an economy that works for all of us, not just the 1%. And, when millions of our people are working for starvation wages, yep, we’re going to raise the minimum wage to $15 bucks an hour. And, we are going to bring pay equity for women. And, when we need the best educated workforce in the world, yes, we are going to make public colleges and universities tuition free. And, for the millions of Americans struggling with horrendous levels of student debt, we are going to substantially ease that burden.

New Hampshire was a big lose for Hillary Clinton.

On the downside, NPR goes on to point out: “New Hampshire has had a better track record of picking GOP nominees in recent years”.

Something for Donald Trump, the GOP winner, to remember.

The bad news for both is gleaned from the following:

— No Democrat who has won the New Hampshire primary has won the presidency since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

— And no Republican has done it since George H.W. Bush in 1988.