Why The Ravens Will Beat the Patriots.

Casey Smith
Nov 3 · 3 min read

Let’s talk some Football. Two years ago when I wrote about how the Philadelphia Eagles were going to beat the New England Patriots I was bombarded by individuals telling me “I was crazy” and didn’t know Football. Of course I didn’t listen and instead went on record noting the reasons why I was certain they would win.

The rest is history. So this year my pick is that the Ravens will beat the Patriots? Now this is not the Super-Bowl (obviously) but much like the week before that week my timelines have been full of “The Patriots Defense” is historic. In reality its historic because they are paying historically bad football teams. The only real competition the Patriots have played is the Browns and the Bills and had Nick Chubb not fumbled the ball he would have ran for 160 + yards as is he already ran for 131 yards.

In those two games the Patriots did win however the Browns well they are a mess and the Bills nearly beat them and exposed Brady and gave some thought to Max Kellerman’s statement of “Is Tom Brady more of a game manager?” I won’t go that far but this season has shown that Father time is stepping up. Now this by no means he is falling off after all his numbers are not terrible and I have bet against Tom Brady to many times to say “He won’t pull it out one more time.” But the eye test makes you wonder “what defense will see that Tom Brady is not slinging bullets.

But let’s not kid ourselves this games comes down to the offense. The Ravens rank first in points per game and yards and Lamar Jackson himself ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing yards and is #1 in the league in rushing yards per attempt.

When Bill Belechick says “He does not have a player that can replicate Jackson” he is not only joking but also opening a window into the only window the Patriots have that show weakness. Why? For all the success the Patriots have had mobile Quarterbacks outside of Tyrod Taylor and Andrew Luck (Luck and Taylor went 1–10) have posed a threat to them as the mobile led teams have gone 5–3.

Quarterbacks such as Arron Rodgers Alex Smith, Russel Wilson, and Deshuan Watson averaged 30.1 points with a completion rate of 65.9% and 302 passing yards per game with less than two interceptions a game. Even Quarterbacks like Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, and Blake Bortles have gone 3–2 against New England, completing 60.7% and 200+ passing yards. In other words mobile Quarterbacks pose a threat to New England.

If Lamar Jackson can expose the defense that has been touted as “Historic” it will lay the cards in the hand of Tom Brady. This is where the Ravens have the advantage. Lamar has a higher TD%, Yards per attempt, and higher QBR and Brady’s Touchdown percentage is down by 1.1%.

Now Tom Brady is the greatest quarterbacks of all time but he has only thrown for 3 touchdowns one time this season despite playing teams such as the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins. When he has been tested even last week he threw for two touchdowns and both were more about the defense then Brady himself. Against the Bills Brady threw for a measly 150 yards no touchdowns and one interception and while the Ravens defense rank the highest in Passing yards given up they have stepped up when needed to (Russel Wilson) and despite their flaws still have allowed the the 9th lowest yards on the season.

And while the Patriots have only been tested once the Ravens just beat the Seahawks, and were a touchdown away from beating the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes. What does this tell us? The Ravens have adapted when they needed to and with two weeks to prepare for a team that they typically play well with only two games being decided by two scores saying the Patriots “historic defense” is going to somehow overcome all of this seems small.

My Take: Ravens 37–21 with 100+ rushing yards from Lamar Jackson.

Casey Smith
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