Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Bennett Hillenbrand of the Catalist Analytics team..

Between 2008 and 2016, Virginia’s 10th Congressional District supported the Democratic candidate in 2-out-of-3 presidential elections and the Republican candidate in all 5 congressional elections. While longtime Republican incumbent Frank Wolf was certainly a force, his successor Barbara Comstock proved formidable in countering the swingy, if not Democratic-leaning nature of the district, in both…


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Jonathan Robinson, Lead Research Scientist at Catalist.

Just 1,315 votes separated Democrat Dan Feehan from victory over Republican Jim Hagedorn, making it one of 2018’s closest House races and a rare example of defeat in an election that was so favorable for Democrats across the country. The seat, which had been represented by now-Governor Tim Walz since 2006, has had a…


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Zachery Crowell, an Analyst on the Catalist Analytics team.

Last November, Democrat Colin Allred defeated 11-term Republican incumbent Pete Sessions with 52% of the vote to Sessions’s 46%. TX-32 is a racially diverse and highly college-educated district located in the northern suburbs of Dallas. The district is a former Republican stronghold which President Obama lost by nearly 16 percentage points in…


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Maggie Dart-Padover, an Analyst on the Catalist Analytics team.

In 2008, Obama won Michigan, including Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, cementing the state’s status as part of the Blue Wall in the midwest. Since then, the 8th CD has consistently voted for Republicans, including Romney in 2012. …


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Jonathan Robinson, Lead Research Scientist at Catalist.

It was never a given that Democrats would take back the House of Representatives in 2018, and Maine’s 2nd congressional district was emblematic of that uphill battle. The district had been represented by Democrats for 20 years between incumbents John Baldacci and Mike Michaud, until the 2014 midterm election when Michaud retired to run…


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Bennett Hillenbrand of the Catalist Analytics team.

Howard “Buck” McKeon represented the 25th district in California from 1992–2013, winning handily even in environments otherwise favorable to Democrats such as 2008. 2012 exposed the first potential sign of weakness, when McKeon won re-election by 10 points but Romney only narrowly carried the district by just 2 points. This 8 point difference between…


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Maggie Dart-Padover, Analyst on the Catalist Analytics team.

New Hampshire is the first state of the series in which the Democratic candidate at the top of the ticket in 2018 won a smaller percentage of the vote than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Despite preferring Democrats at the presidential and congressional levels, Granite Staters chose to give Republican Chris Sununu a…


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Zachery Crowell, an Analyst on the Catalist Analytics team.

After narrowly winning with 50.2% of the vote in 2012, Heidi Heitkamp became one of four incumbent Democratic Senators who lost in 2018. Despite the early polling and expected competitiveness of the race, Heitkamp lost decisively with 44.3% of the vote. However, this was not as wide a margin of defeat as…


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by David Margolis.

In 2018, Minnesota had 10,000 lakes, two senate elections, one gubernatorial contest, and five of eight congressional races that were considered competitive. Over recent decades, the home of Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone has been the focus of Republican efforts to make gains in rural areas and in the suburbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul, with the hope of…


Note: this post is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See here for background and the full series. This post was written by Zachery Crowell, an Analyst on the Catalist Analytics team.

For the first time in over 20 years, Arizona elected a Democrat to the US Senate during the 2018 midterm.

The 2018 election itself was too close to call on election night, but weeks later once mail-in and provisional ballots were fully counted, Kyrsten Sinema, three term Democratic Representative of AZ-09, prevailed…

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