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Feb 12, 2016

Syrian Ceasefire: Five Things You Should Know

Late on Thursday night an agreement was reached between the 17 members of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) to seek a nationwide ‘cessation of hostilities’ to begin in a week’s time. Here Chatham House experts tell you what you need to know about the deal.

1. This is an attempt by international powers to impose a peace on Syria, after the failure of UN efforts to negotiate a peace

The International Syria Support Group does not include either the Assad government or the Syrian opposition. Until they can be convinced to implement it, the agreement remains progress on paper only. We have seen agreement in the international community on these issues before — in UN Security Resolution 2254 — but these terms were simply never implemented.

United Nations Deputy Special Envoy to Syria, Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy; Coordinator of UN Humanitarian Aid in Syria, Yacoub al-Helo; and the commissioner general of UNRWA, Pierre Krahenbuhl answer journalists’ questions in Damascus. Photo by Getty Images.

2. The agreement has been spurred on by two significant developments on the ground

The first is that the regime, backed by Russian airstrikes, has made significant gains around the key city of Aleppo. Secondly, there have been reports of Saudi Arabia and Turkey planning deployments in Syria. For Russia, an agreement now allows it to freeze its gains on the ground as well as avoid a larger regional conflict with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

People search for survivors amidst the rubble of a house after a reported attack by Syrian government forces in Aleppo on 27 July 2015. Photo by Getty Images.

3. If the deal holds, it will immediately save lives

There are at least seven priority areas currently besieged by parties to the conflict that will receive life-saving assistance as soon as the terms of the deal are implemented. The current plan is that Russia would airdrop supplies to these areas. There are a further 107 areas that have not been receiving any aid from the UN because the regime has been blocking access, which could open up if the deal is honoured.

UN and partners queue to deliver relief convoy into the besieged town of Madaya

4. Airstrikes against terrorists are to continue

The ‘cessation of hostilities’ excludes airstrikes against ISIS, Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra and “other groups designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations Security Council”. This is problematic as there is no agreement between the powers as to what counts as a terrorist group. Jaysh al Islam and Ahrar al Sham are key members of the Syrian opposition but are considered terrorists by Russia. If Russia continues to strikes these groups, the cessation of hostilities is likely to collapse.

Members of Jabhat al-Nusra and its allies stand at the entrance of the Abu Duhur military airport after they seized the base on 9 September 2015. Photo by Getty Images.

5. Assad stays — for now

The agreement envisages a political negotiation leading to a new constitution, and elections in which the refugees could vote. But there are few, if any, precedents in the region for constitutional change bringing real political change, without a change of ruler taking place first.

Fighters from a coalition of Islamist forces stand on a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on 29 March 2015 in the Syrian city of Idlib. Photo by Getty Images.