Electric Vehicles and the Chasm They Face
In the book Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey A. Moore discusses the technology adoption life cycle. He explains the stages of stages of adoption for technology products. Whether a technology product can establish itself in the market depends on whether the early majority would pick up the void left by the early adopters.
Electric cars are seen as a solution to achieve net-zero, and governments worldwide have put in a lot of effort to replace traditional fossil fuel vehicles with electric ones. However, have you ever wondered why the acceptance of electric cars in the Norwegian market is much higher than in other markets, including Taiwan? Similarly, even in Norway where electric vehicles are pervasive, why are there still some consumers reluctant to purchase electric cars?
When discussing the performance of innovative products in the market, the “Diffusion of Innovation” theory is often used to explain whether and how a product is accepted. The adoption of a product is typically referred to as “diffusion.” This theory classifies consumers based on the time it takes them to adopt an innovative idea or product, and based on the adoption patterns of the different categories of adopters, one can determine the product’s position in its life cycle.
The way electric vehicles are powered and the way they are used are significantly different from traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, making them relatively innovative for most consumers. As governments and the public increasingly focus on environmental issues, electric cars, as an alternative to fossil fuel vehicles, are gaining acceptance. Consumers can choose from a good range of models as new ones are introduced to the market.
According to the “Diffusion of Innovation” theory, the Norwegian market with its 79.3% electric car market share has already entered the phase where even the late majority are starting to adopt electric cars. The late majority group are typically characterized by skepticism and stubbornness. They are only willing to adopt innovation once they have eliminated their doubts about the new technology or when the majority of people around them have embraced it. This implies that in the Norwegian market, most consumers have already embraced electric cars, leaving only a few laggards who have not yet adopted electric cars. Coupled with the Norwegian government’s ban on vehicles by 2025, it is likely electric cars will be fully adopted in the Norwegian market.
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