Change Research Poll Finds Tight Democratic Primary for NY AG

Change Research conducted two polls of Democrats in the State of New York (September 6–9 and September 11–12, 2018). Our most recent poll found key insights into voter attitudes in a tight three-way primary.

The primary remains a very close race between Zephyr Teachout, Letitia James, and Sean Maloney.

• 28% of respondents say they’ll vote for Teachout
• 27% of respondents say they’ll vote for James
• 26% of respondents say they’ll vote for Maloney
• 3% of respondents say they’ll vote for Leecia Eve
• 16% of respondents are still undecided

More voters are hearing about Teachout on social media.

Voters were asked how they’d heard from each of the candidates, and the poll found a significant increase in voters hearing about Teachout on Facebook in comparison to a poll conducted just 3 days earlier.

The second poll showed significant increases in respondents indicating that they’d heard about Teachout either via paid ads, friends’ posts on Facebook, or text messages. In initial polling, respondents cited seeing slightly more Facebook ads from Teachout than from Maloney (36% of the total to 35% of the total). More recent polling showed Teachout’s share rising to 43%, while Maloney’s share dropped slightly to 34%.

The following charts show the breakdown for each category of voter contact, by Attorney General candidate.

Voters are more engaged with this State of New York primary than ever before.

The survey found that 65% of New York voters are “more interested” in the state primary election than in previous years.

Letitia James leads in New York City, while Zephyr Teachout and Sean Patrick Maloney split the upstate vote.

• James leads in NYC with over 36% support in NYC, leading each of her opponents by double digits.
• Maloney and Teachout are virtually tied among voters outside NYC. Maloney has the support of 31% of voters outside NYC, with Teachout garnering 32% outside NYC.

Letitia James’ support is especially strong among Black voters.

• James has over 60% support among Black voters in New York State, and her success may hinge on African-American turnout.
• Teachout leads among white voters, while Maloney leads among Hispanics (with 28%) and Asians (with 43%).

Poll Methodology

Change Research conducted polls of 1030 registered Democrats in New York September 6–9, 2018, and 844 registered Democrats in New York September 11–12, 2018. Both polls were conducted online, using Change Research’s proprietary, patent-pending Bias Correct Engine. Traditional margin of error calculation is +/-3 for the first poll and +/-3.5 for the second poll.

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