Why Snapchat Won’t Make it Through the Year.
Rob Moore

A few things different from Facebook and Twitter IPOs:

  1. Snap, Inc. did not have a readily available secondary market prior to IPO so company was able to capitalize on its IPO price (the pop).
  2. Snap’s standard vesting schedule is backloaded (+10% after 1st year, +20% after 2nd year, +30% after 3rd year, etc.), so employees have less incentive to leave before IPO gains are realized. Many early Facebook employees left for greener pastures.
  3. The Market is red hot. Assuming the Market does not crash by end of 2017 (which is a big if), then Snap will fare better than Facebook or Twitter did in their debut.

Also, that’s a bold headline as others have pointed out. Take a position, but own it. If you’re wrong in 6 months or at the end of 2017, remember to go back and acknowledge it.

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