Some states Johnson/Weld 2016 should target to help the LP for 2018 and 2020
There are three considerations the Libertarian presidential ticket should bear in mind as we come down to the final stretch of the 2016 campaign. The top priority is to take advantage of the opportunities to get national media. Gary Johnson and Bill Weld have had unprecedented success doing this and should continue to seek screen time whenever possible. A rising tide lifts all boats, and as long as large numbers of voters are only vaguely aware of the LP it will be the case that media attention will roll the tide in. Second on the list is to focus on maximizing support in the campaign’s best areas. Utah and New Mexico are probably the two states presenting the best opportunity to win, but the possibility of gaining an electoral vote by winning a single congressional district in Maine or Nebraska is an intriguing possibility. The third primary factor, however, does not rely on the prospect of winning a state or gaining in the national polls. In order to maximize the tremendous gains made this election cycle, the Johnson/Weld campaign ought to put in some work to retain ballot access in key states.
There aren’t any swing states on this list and in all but one Johnson polls higher than what is needed for ballot access retention. But alternative party candidates have a tendency to fade as election day approaches. A tapering off of support for the LP ticket could cost the party dearly. A timely appearance by Gary Johnson or Bill Weld or some targeted advertising would do much to ensure that we can build on the historic accomplishments of this election cycle.
Minnesota
Ballot access retention: 5%
Petition requirement: 5% for major party status, 1% for minor party status
Current polling average: Clinton 49.9% — Trump- 42.3% — Johnson 6.5%
It wouldn’t mean the death knell of the Minnesota LP to fail to gain major party status, but if Johnson can hit the 5% number it means not just ballot access for both 2018 and 2020 but also credibility and inclusion in public events typically denied to minor parties in the state. Recall that key to Jesse Ventura’s successful run for Governor was being able to participate in televised debates because the Reform Party had full status. Getting 5% also means no minor party petition that would probably need in excess of 30,000 signatures for 2018.
Virginia
Ballot access: 10%
Petition requirement: 10,000 signatures for every statewide office by the
candidate, not the party.
Current polling average: Clinton 47.5% — Trump- 41.5% — Johnson 9.8%
10,000 signatures to get on the presidential ballot isn’t terrible, but because each candidate has their own petitioning requirement the number of signatures required expands exponentially with every additional candidate. It’s incredibly difficult to build state and local party organizations with such a handicap. Some polls have shown Johnson above 10% in the state, but most have him below and historically alternative candidates poll higher than what they actually get on election day. But if extra attention to the state could gain major party status in Virginia that would last until 2020, it would be well worth it.
Illinois
Ballot access: 5%
Petition requirement: 25,000 for the party, then 5% for each candidate
Current polling average: Clinton 54.2% — Trump- 38.4% — Johnson 5.3%
Not only does Illinois require candidates for new parties to get ten times the number of signatures for their individual candidacy, but the Democrats and the Republicans will challenge the signatures, so it is necessary to get a large overage and signatures must be actively defended at the state capitol during the challenge process. An effort to ensure a 5% result in Illinois will pay dividends in 2018 and perhaps in 2020 as well.
Oklahoma
Ballot access: 2.5%
Petition requirement: 3%
Current polling average: Trump 56..1% — Clinton 37% — Johnson 6.9%
Oklahoma has traditionally been where efforts to get ballot access in all states go to die. The signature requirement was lowered from 5% to 3% in 2015(and the vote percentage for retention from 10% to 2.5% just this year), but it’s still a high hurdle that no other alternative party could meet this year. On very short notice after the successful petition 18 candidates filed for office. The number could be doubled for 2018, if Johnson gets the necessary votes to keep the OKLP on the ballot. Some attention from the candidate would do much to make sure that happens.
This isn’t a lengthy list. I don’t presume to know everything that the Johnson campaign has to weigh in terms of decisions about where to put their resources. But I do know that a little effort in these four states could make a big difference for 2018.