America’s Current Crisis
A Look At the State of America Through the Scope of Generational Theory
By Chris Swineford
To properly analyze recent events it is necessary to have a sound understanding of history. We must not look only at the different events throughout history, but the cyclical nature of these events and how they are connected with distinct pattern formation. Certain patterns of events and traits of generations throughout Anglo-American history help us make predictions. This is known as Generational Theory.
The theory describes a cycle within Anglo-American history that repeats every 80–100 years. Each cycle is made up of four different generational archetypes, with each generation spanning approximately 20 years.
The generations are labeled Hero (GI), Artist (Silent), Prophet (Boomer), and Nomad (Gen X). The next Hero generation being Millennials.
There are four different period types to match the four generational archetypes.
1) High
Also referred to as the First Turning, this is a time of societal high with widespread conformity. There is an emphasis on community and family values; along with a fast-paced progression of culture and technology. These conditions are a result of an ending crisis period.
The Nomads enter their elder years. The Heroes, having dealt with the previous crisis, enter midlife. Artists come of age, shaping the culture until the next turning. A new Prophet generation is born.
A First Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order and the demand for social order are high. Examples of earlier First Turnings include the post-Civil War Reconstruction Era, sometimes called the Victorian High of industrial growth and stable families, and the post-Constitution Era of Good Feelings, when Thomas Jefferson celebrated the advance of science and empire.
2) Awakening
The Second Turning is a time of subtle liberation with a push towards individualism. Societal norms are questioned, institutions are attacked, and conformity is viewed as regression.
Heroes become elders, Artists enter mid-life, Prophets come of age, and Nomads are born.
A Second Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is high, but the demand for such order is low. Examples of earlier Second Turnings include the Third Great Awakening around 1900, marked by labor protests, Billy Sunday evangelicals, and “new woman” feminists, and the Transcendental Awakening, which Henry David Thoreau described as a period “when we have lost the world…and begin to find ourselves.”
3) Unraveling
The Third Turning is a time of unravel. With individual values at an all time high, there is minimal sense of community. Importance is placed on the self and personal enjoyment, with a distrust of leaders and institutions. This period generally serves as a lesson.
Artists become elder, Prophets enter midlife, Nomads come of age, and Heroes are born.
A Third Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order and the demand for such order are low. Examples of earlier Unravelings include the periods around the “roaring” 1920s of Prohibition, the Mexican War in the 1850s, and the French and Indian Wars in the 1760s. These were all periods of cynicism and bad manners, when civic authority felt weak, social disorder felt pervasive, and the culture felt exhausted.
4) Crisis
The Fourth Turning is a time of crisis. With the individualistic ways of life becoming unsustainable, there is a push towards community. Institutions are torn down so they can be rebuilt. The values, social structures, and economic development established during this period will set the tone for the upcoming high.
Prophets become elder, Nomads enter mid-life, Heroes come of age, and Artists are born.
A Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s — both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.
Where We Are
We find ourselves experiencing a fourth turning. The starting point likely being the financial crisis of 2008. Considering that each period lasts roughly 20 years, it is safe to say that we are approaching the half-way mark with 10–15 years to go.
During this period we will be forced to not only acknowledge dividing issues, but to confront them and provide solutions. Whether this is achieved through violence or peaceful means is up to the current Hero generation.
The Grey Champion
Each fourth turning signals the return of a Gray Champion. A figure belonging to the Prophet generation who serves as an agent of change, leading the Heroes through times of hardship. The GI generation, led by FDR, pulled themselves out of the depression and achieved victory during WWII. Abraham Lincoln navigated the American people through the turmoil of the Civil War. The champion is not always necessarily one person, but could be many. The Revolutionary war had several, including Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, etc.
The Champion is not always unanimously popular. They create controversy, more often disliked by large portions of the populace. Disregarding the status quo, the Champion places priority on change; their agenda being victory of the people at all costs.
“Each time the Grey Champion appeared marked the arrival of a moment of “darkness, and adversity, and peril,” the climax of the Fourth Turning of the saeculum. ”— The Fourth Turning — Strauss & Howe
The 2016 Presidential Election
“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action.” … “This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” — Strauss & Howe — The Fourth Turning
If Donald Trump is anything, he is an agent of change. Whether or not that change is beneficial depends on who you ask. He has no doubt divided the country, forcing people to address new and uncomfortable issues . It is yet to be seen if Trump is in fact the Gray Champion. Perhaps a more suitable candidate will make themselves known. Thus far, no one else has met the criteria.
